Case Shiller Price Drops Slow in Q4
The latest Case Shiller data for their National Home Price Index is out. It shows the “the pace of deterioration has stabilized for now.”
For Q4 2009, US Home prices dropped 2.5%. vs Q4 ’08. For all of 2009, quarterly price drops were:
Q1 = 19.0%
Q2 = 14.7%
Q3 = 8.7%
Q4 = 2.5%
For the month of December, the 20 city index fell 3.1% over November 2009. In December, 15 of the 20 metro areas showed a decline in December over November, with Chicago posting the sharpest decline, down 1.6%. Las Vegas finally posted its first positive print in more than three years, with +0.2%.
There is a conference call with Professor Shiller at 10:00am EST; info on the call, and Ginormous charts follow the jump . . .
Conference call info:
Live Call-In: US/Canada Toll Free: 1-866-803-2143
US/Canada/All Others Toll: 1-210-795-1098
UK Toll Free: 0800-279-3953
UK Toll Number: 44-20-7108-6248
Conference ID#: 1938362; Passcode: SANDPTo Listen Live Via Audio Web Streaming AND to View the Slide Presentation:
Visit: www.mymeetings.com; under participant, select join an event Conference NAME: PG1938362 and Passcode: SANDP. Then, in a separate browser, visit: http://www.mymeetings.com/nc/join.Conference Name: 1938362; Passcode: SANDP
Al charts courtesy of S&P/Case-Shiller
click for larger graphics
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February 23rd, 2010 at 9:47 am
Replay conference call info is here:
Replay Number:
US/Canada Toll Free: 1-866-396-4182
US/Canada/All Others Toll: 1-203-369-0508
Replays will expire on Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Replay Web Streaming:
URL: http://www.mymeetings.com/nc/join
Conference ID#: PG1938362
Passcode: SANDP
Replay will expire on Tuesday, March 23, 2010
RSVP: No RSVP Required.
February 23rd, 2010 at 10:19 am
Note: The slide show was a cluster fuck — Microsoft Live Meeting is a disaster
February 23rd, 2010 at 10:19 am
my brother the realator, has two types of clients, first timers wanting tax credit, and others who need to sell for some specific reason, other than that, nada
February 23rd, 2010 at 10:22 am
Interesting msm headline contrast, Bloomberg “Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Rose for Seventh Month”, Reuters “Home prices unexpectedly dip”
February 23rd, 2010 at 10:25 am
Pump those bubbles boys. It’s all we have left.
February 23rd, 2010 at 10:29 am
How much of the improvement is noise caused by first time home buyer credit and Fed manipulation of mortgage rates? Both subsideis will be over before the big summer selling season, will housing contiue to improve?
Notice that real estate recession is now regional instead of national. Vegas, Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami are still down 10% plus YOY. The epicenters of the housing bubble continue to deflate.
See Barry’s earlier comments about treasury initiative to stop foreclosures. Housing prices need to be allowed to fall to the clearing price and real buyers( not $8,000 tax credit shoppers) will return.
February 23rd, 2010 at 10:37 am
Detroit price declines are different…Michigan economy in a long term depression. I got my county appraisal on my home, down 18% YOY and now at the appraised market level of 1990. that is right, fifteen years of appreciation wiped out since the peak in 2005.
I don’t know why Michigan budget problems are under the radar. How can government operate on 18% less revenue?
February 23rd, 2010 at 10:40 am
i would note, orlando was first too implode in q2 2006, and it’s downleg has started anwew, orlando lives and dies on tourists and retired folks, guess neither are in spending moods
February 23rd, 2010 at 11:26 am
But artificially inflated asset prices, especially of houses, are always good, n’cest pas?
February 23rd, 2010 at 12:29 pm
Curmudgeon,
Of course, higher asset prices are always better, artificial or not! (BTW, the correct spelling is “n’est-ce pas”.)
February 23rd, 2010 at 12:38 pm
[...] Case-Shiller figures show the pace of deterioration in home prices slowing. (Big Picture, Real Time [...]
February 23rd, 2010 at 12:59 pm
What more than the cost of housing shows the dysfunction throughout the American economy. From the FED, the banks, appraisers, real estate agents, accountants, attorneys, all kinds of regulatory agencies, city/municipality/county governments, all had a hand in using the American people to extract interest, fees, taxes, and rents.
The very basis of our American heritage, the dream of having an affordable home, as a foundation to pass opportunity to the next generation, was simply used as bait. When the dark side of this system (exploiting the average person’s frailties) became fashionable, the corporatisation of the individual was complete. No longer did the individual have to worry about the moral implications of destroying another human being, as long as it was for profit. Corporate America finally found its host too irresistible to pass up.
February 24th, 2010 at 12:24 pm
Well, as we all know but find unappetizing when it’s against our hopes, one data point cannot make a line. Two points, at minimum, are required to make a relatively horizontal line which would show stabilization: i.e. little change. Judging by the news today about new home loans plunging, I betting that won’t happen. I’d say this faux stabilization was artificial demand created through the housing tax breaks and doesn’t have “legs”. I predict we are heading into a down draft in Q1 2010.