Second, you are confusing cause and effect. Immigration doesn’t cause hiring to increaese. people emigrate to where the jobs are.

First, some have noted the fact that net immigration, legal and illegal is down. This was a major driver for net employment growth required to maintain a static employment situation.

Also note that folks deciding to retire early and take that SocSec and or reduced Pension have certainly increased (see below). Also take into account that normally folks decide to return to grad school or trade school or other training opportunities in recessions. Tack on the fact that alot of lesser skilled folks in 2 wage families might decide to opt out of the employment scheme (sexist maybe how many 55 year old women whose spouse/partner are earning 50k+ have decided they don’t want to take that crepe job at McD’s just to make an extra 1500 a month).

Our B and D as well as most of the employ/unemploy stats are established based upon a need for what, 100-150 k jobs just to stay static. Thus, if the assumptions in paragraph 1 are anywhere close to true, then yes our unemployment situation is and will improve dramatically. My anectdotal evidence for the above turns out to be relatively easy to prove. In my IT office of 25 folks, one decided to retire this year at 62 instead of facing a layoff. Net -1 unemployed. Anyother will retire June 2011, we are planning on rehiring that position. My niece of 24 yrs has finally found a job as a nanny for 35k a year for some Seattle MS techies, my other niece has just found a job at an NGO, a 3rd niece is going to quit her job as a financial advisor for a major mutual fund company and return to school to be a physical therapist, my unemployed nephew in San Diego has finally found 2 p/t sales jobs both could morph into f/t positions. Thus, of the 30 odd folks in my sphere of knowledge, 5 have resolved employment situations.

I’d recommend the folks who have bought into the meme of the world is ending (accurate 2-3 years ago) might want to reevaluate their positions vis a vis a changing and dynamic demographic world. We are at the very peak of baby boomers starting to bail out. As that accelerates the employment situation will change dramatically.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/26493859/Is-the-Duration-of-the-Current-Recession-Distorting-U3

My approach is similarly unchanged: Read the data, Interpret what it means, figure out where its wrong and/or where the crowd is misinterpreting it. Apply that Variant perspective to an investing thesis.

My market positions have been flexible, with several well timed bullish calls (See this and this and this and this — you get the idea).

Perhaps it is you who has wised up —

And my views on conspiracy theorists consistent over the years — I’ve been pretty vocal they are nonsense:

Calling All Conspiracy Theorists! (September 29th, 2006)

Experts, Crashes, Media, Skepticism (February 19th, 2009)

PPT: The President’s Working Group on Financial Markets (January 8th, 2010)

Barron’s Santoli: Biderman is Clueless (January 16th, 2010)

The Hubris of Economics (November 4th, 2009)

I have never expected such a good constructive analysis from Barry Ritholtz — well known conspiracy theories perma-bear. You have surprised me Barry. I was completely wrong underestimating your abilities. You have definitely wised up over the years.

Thanks

Have you factored in the Census temporary hiring this year? I heard they gonna hire 1.4 million people just to count USA citizens this year, like 3x the previous number. Obama must be deperate ….

Check this article. A complete Fraud from the Obama.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEws7wrt8FY0&pos=6

wasn’t it more than 900k worse than previously reported? are you planning a follow up post on these birth/death adjustments now that the actual data is out? i’m still somewhat confused as to WHERE these numbers actually show up – in what metric. in other words, the UI rate doesn’t just jump when the extra 900k jobs lost are suddenly counted.

Any thought to comparing the BLS numbers with state income tax and sales receipt collections along with the Federal income tax and see if there’s any correlation? I would bet there’s little with the initial release and maybe a bit with the revised numbers. The painful reality thast no one wants to accept is that BLS “survey” data is probably useless.