Large corporations have been testing a new device that can generate power on the spot, without being connected to the electric grid. Will we have one in every home someday?
In the world of energy, the Holy Grail is a power source that’s inexpensive and clean, with no emissions. Well over 100 start-ups in Silicon Valley are working on it, and one of them, Bloom Energy, is about to make public its invention: a little power plant-in-a-box they want to put literally in your backyard.
You’ll generate your own electricity with the box and it’ll be wireless. The idea is to one day replace the big power plants and transmission line grid, the way the laptop moved in on the desktop and cell phones supplanted landlines.
It has a lot of smart people believing and buzzing, even though the company has been unusually secretive – until now.
Source: The Bloom Box: An Energy Breakthrough?
First Customers Say Energy Machine Works And Saves Money
60 Minutes, Feb. 18, 2010 http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/02/18/60minutes/main6221135.shtml
One hypothesis is that many of the employees left the financial industry. According to the LinkedIn data set, that just isn’t true. There are a handful of people that did transition to other industries and start new careers, but most stayed in the financial space. To be specific, other than two acquiring companies (Bank of America acquired Merrill Lynch and Nomura acquired Lehman Brothers’ franchise in the Asia Pacific region), Barclays was by far the biggest beneficiary, scooping up 10% of the laid off talent, followed by Credit Suisse at 1.5% and Citigroup at 1.1 %.
The 5 year note auction was mixed as the yield was slightly above the when issued but the bid to cover at 2.75 is the 3rd highest dating back to Sept ’07 and is above the average over the past year of 2.38. Indirect bidders took 40.3% of the auction which is the lowest since July but direct bidders bought 12.8% of it which is on the very high side. The dealer community is thus being put a bit more in the dark over what the true demand is and where its coming from. Today’s auction follows an excellent 2 yr note auction yesterday and the maturity of 5 years falls somewhat in no man’s land this week ahead of tomorrow’s 7 year auction and this past Monday’s 30 yr TIPS auction. Therefore, not much can be gleaned today in terms of what the bond market sentiment is with respect to growth, inflation and risk appetite.
Jan New Home Sales, which measure contract signings of new homes, totaled 309k, 45k less than expected and down from 348k in Dec. It is the lowest on record dating back to 1963 when the US population was 190mm vs 310mm today and highlights the extreme overhang that still exists in existing homes. Months supply rose to 9.1 from 8.0 and is back to the highest since May ’09 but remains below the high in this cycle of 12.4 in Jan ’09. The absolute number of homes for sale rose slightly to 234k from 233k. Sales fell in the Northeast, South and West but rose a touch in the Midwest. The median price fell 2.4% y/o/y and 5.6% m/o/m to $203,500, the lowest since Dec 2003. Combining this data point with today’s MBA report saying that purchases fell to the lowest level since 1997 and it gives reason to the Fed to keep rates as low as possible for as long as possible regardless of what this formula created in the ’03-’07 timeframe.
Robert Shiller (Yale prof., Case/Shiller Indices) warned that the gain on the Case/Shiller index was purely due to the seasonal adjustment in December and that housing prices fell on an unadjusted basis.
Bernanke reiterated what he said in the Jan statement, “the FOMC continues to anticipate that economic conditions-including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations-are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the fed funds rate for an extended period.” He does follow though that “at some point” they need to begin to tighten monetary conditions. Stating the obvious. On their MBS buying, the program is winding down BUT the FOMC “will continue to evaluate its purchases in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets.” Same wording as in Jan. On the discount rate hike, he said this step along with the expiration of other programs “are not expected to lead to tighter financial conditions for households and businesses and should not be interpreted as signaling any change in the outlook for monetary policy.” No surprises.
“All I’m saying is that you’re making a huge mistake if you mindlessly send all your money overseas — just because all those other economies are the devil you don’t know. The devil you do know may be your best bet.”
Luskin’s track record and forecasting history suggest he is a reliable one man contrary indicator.
Contrary-interpretation of Smart Money article: One of the greatest overseas investing trades — in the history of mankind — is very likely about to begin.
After 3 quarters in a row that averaged just 1.2%, Q4 GDP grew 2.8%, a touch below expectations of 3.0% BUT Nominal GDP grew well below forecasts. Because the price deflator was up just .4% vs the estimate of 1.9%, Nominal GDP was up 3.2% vs the estimate of 4.9%. Personal Consumption rose 2.0% vs the forecast of 2.4%. Fixed Investment rose 3.3% helped by a 5.2% increase in equipment and software spending and residential construction rose by 10.9%. Trade was a slight drag on GDP growth and government spending was as well led by a 12.5% decline on national...
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