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	<title>Comments on: Picking Up the Slack &#8212; Or Is It Too Late?</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/picking-up-the-slack/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/picking-up-the-slack/</link>
	<description>Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 14 Feb 2012 13:58:51 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: 失業率、薪金及退市 &#171; Konifa&#39;s Blog</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/picking-up-the-slack/comment-page-1/#comment-254022</link>
		<dc:creator>失業率、薪金及退市 &#171; Konifa&#39;s Blog</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Feb 2010 07:03:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=49389#comment-254022</guid>
		<description>[...] 失業率與平均時薪,圖示剛好成反比向。  從圖中可以預計柏南克退市尚要等兩者由背馳變成拉近。    留言 [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] 失業率與平均時薪,圖示剛好成反比向。  從圖中可以預計柏南克退市尚要等兩者由背馳變成拉近。    留言 [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Chart Junkie: Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings &#124; Wall St. Cheat Sheet</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/picking-up-the-slack/comment-page-1/#comment-253597</link>
		<dc:creator>Chart Junkie: Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings &#124; Wall St. Cheat Sheet</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Feb 2010 06:01:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=49389#comment-253597</guid>
		<description>[...] This chart &#8220;perfectly captures the inverse relationship between the Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings.&#8221; (Source: The Big Picture) [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] This chart &#8220;perfectly captures the inverse relationship between the Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings.&#8221; (Source: The Big Picture) [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Jack</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/picking-up-the-slack/comment-page-1/#comment-252513</link>
		<dc:creator>Jack</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Feb 2010 01:34:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=49389#comment-252513</guid>
		<description>One of the reasons hiring has not increased while corporations earn more is that smart people are in short supply. The recession, decession, depression, whatever you want to call it has given employers the the excuse to not hire. They know very well that the 20-80  or 30-70 rule applies.

See Jobs statement on his A4 chip. He wants people who are ten times the value of the &quot;ordinary&quot; chip designer.

The dumb factor needs to be plugged into the employment. We do not have enough smart people.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One of the reasons hiring has not increased while corporations earn more is that smart people are in short supply. The recession, decession, depression, whatever you want to call it has given employers the the excuse to not hire. They know very well that the 20-80  or 30-70 rule applies.</p>
<p>See Jobs statement on his A4 chip. He wants people who are ten times the value of the &#8220;ordinary&#8221; chip designer.</p>
<p>The dumb factor needs to be plugged into the employment. We do not have enough smart people.</p>
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		<title>By: cognos</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/picking-up-the-slack/comment-page-1/#comment-252492</link>
		<dc:creator>cognos</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Feb 2010 00:34:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=49389#comment-252492</guid>
		<description>@ Invictus -- I notice you didnt respond to my points about the charts looking just like prior recoveries?  Also, debt/income may look a bit higher... what about (debt service) / income?  This would be far lower than 1980-level... and the recovery from there produced a nice long boom.

Debt is a function of savings.  (One man&#039;s savings is another&#039;s debt... right?)

@ Ahab -- Clearly the 1999 stock bubble was a bubble, while 2007 levels just corrected with recession.  The financial crisis was mortgage credit driven.  Stock indices x-financials are not down that much, maybe 10-15%.  X-financials and Commodities and they may be flat.  Its hard to call general stocks a bubble when they were flat on the previous 10-yrs... right?  The 2000-07 bubble was housing and commodities.  My point is... we&#039;re fortunate we had the internet bubble at a different time then weak-dollar, demographics, etc caused RE bubble.  Japan can be understood as having both the BIG stock bubble (US 1999) and the big RE bubble (US 2007) at the same time.  Much tougher to recover from the deflation effects of both.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@ Invictus &#8212; I notice you didnt respond to my points about the charts looking just like prior recoveries?  Also, debt/income may look a bit higher&#8230; what about (debt service) / income?  This would be far lower than 1980-level&#8230; and the recovery from there produced a nice long boom.</p>
<p>Debt is a function of savings.  (One man&#8217;s savings is another&#8217;s debt&#8230; right?)</p>
<p>@ Ahab &#8212; Clearly the 1999 stock bubble was a bubble, while 2007 levels just corrected with recession.  The financial crisis was mortgage credit driven.  Stock indices x-financials are not down that much, maybe 10-15%.  X-financials and Commodities and they may be flat.  Its hard to call general stocks a bubble when they were flat on the previous 10-yrs&#8230; right?  The 2000-07 bubble was housing and commodities.  My point is&#8230; we&#8217;re fortunate we had the internet bubble at a different time then weak-dollar, demographics, etc caused RE bubble.  Japan can be understood as having both the BIG stock bubble (US 1999) and the big RE bubble (US 2007) at the same time.  Much tougher to recover from the deflation effects of both.</p>
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		<title>By: km4</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/picking-up-the-slack/comment-page-1/#comment-252451</link>
		<dc:creator>km4</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Feb 2010 21:53:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=49389#comment-252451</guid>
		<description>@soloduff Says February 3rd, 2010 at 3:34 pm
km4 and jjay: If stagflation is the best we can hope for, I shudder to contemplate the likely effects upon the politics of this country.

A good way for a populist 3rd party to come to power and minimize the rotten and corrupt to the core Dem and GOP parties.....won&#039;t be easy but beats the crony, corporate, gangster capitalism that we have today.

Cloud Culture and “cloud capitalism” 
http://www.counterpoint-online.org/cloud-culture-promise-and-danger/

disclosure: I consult with software startups who are doing “cloud capitalism”</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@soloduff Says February 3rd, 2010 at 3:34 pm<br />
km4 and jjay: If stagflation is the best we can hope for, I shudder to contemplate the likely effects upon the politics of this country.</p>
<p>A good way for a populist 3rd party to come to power and minimize the rotten and corrupt to the core Dem and GOP parties&#8230;..won&#8217;t be easy but beats the crony, corporate, gangster capitalism that we have today.</p>
<p>Cloud Culture and “cloud capitalism”<br />
<a href="http://www.counterpoint-online.org/cloud-culture-promise-and-danger/" rel="nofollow">http://www.counterpoint-online.org/cloud-culture-promise-and-danger/</a></p>
<p>disclosure: I consult with software startups who are doing “cloud capitalism”</p>
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		<title>By: Transor Z</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/picking-up-the-slack/comment-page-1/#comment-252444</link>
		<dc:creator>Transor Z</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Feb 2010 21:25:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=49389#comment-252444</guid>
		<description>I just found this little essay by William Gavin at the St. Louis Fed site, published just yesterday:

&lt;b&gt;Are Low Interest Rates Good for Consumers?&lt;/b&gt;
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/10/ES1003.pdf

&lt;i&gt;It is true that credit card debt was reduced slightly at the ends of some previous recessions, but that was not the case in 2001 and the current reduction is the largest since the Fed began collecting such data (in the early 1950s).&lt;/i&gt;

Gavin&#039;s Conclusion:
&lt;i&gt;The economy is currently in the worst recession since World War II. Conventional macroeconomic wisdom suggests that low interest rates will aid in the recovery by restoring health to the banking system and promoting lending to both businesses and households. So, if low interest rates are indeed good for consumers, then the benefits must come from the effect these policies have on future output growth.&lt;/i&gt;

The unstated point here is that, when you&#039;re in debt, deleveraging IS savings, especially when the spreads are still so freaking high. It&#039;s a no-brainer choice for households.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I just found this little essay by William Gavin at the St. Louis Fed site, published just yesterday:</p>
<p><b>Are Low Interest Rates Good for Consumers?</b><br />
<a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/10/ES1003.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/10/ES1003.pdf</a></p>
<p><i>It is true that credit card debt was reduced slightly at the ends of some previous recessions, but that was not the case in 2001 and the current reduction is the largest since the Fed began collecting such data (in the early 1950s).</i></p>
<p>Gavin&#8217;s Conclusion:<br />
<i>The economy is currently in the worst recession since World War II. Conventional macroeconomic wisdom suggests that low interest rates will aid in the recovery by restoring health to the banking system and promoting lending to both businesses and households. So, if low interest rates are indeed good for consumers, then the benefits must come from the effect these policies have on future output growth.</i></p>
<p>The unstated point here is that, when you&#8217;re in debt, deleveraging IS savings, especially when the spreads are still so freaking high. It&#8217;s a no-brainer choice for households.</p>
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		<title>By: call me ahab</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/picking-up-the-slack/comment-page-1/#comment-252440</link>
		<dc:creator>call me ahab</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Feb 2010 21:06:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=49389#comment-252440</guid>
		<description>cognos says-

&quot;I dont think we’ll have the Japan-problem (bc of cultural differences and bc we did not have simultaneous stock and RE bubbles). &quot;

I guess Dow 14,000 was just about right on valuation then?  all predicated on an economy sucking on the fumes of a RE boom-

dude- you have ZERO credibility w/ me</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>cognos says-</p>
<p>&#8220;I dont think we’ll have the Japan-problem (bc of cultural differences and bc we did not have simultaneous stock and RE bubbles). &#8221;</p>
<p>I guess Dow 14,000 was just about right on valuation then?  all predicated on an economy sucking on the fumes of a RE boom-</p>
<p>dude- you have ZERO credibility w/ me</p>
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		<title>By: sfgirl</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/picking-up-the-slack/comment-page-1/#comment-252434</link>
		<dc:creator>sfgirl</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Feb 2010 20:51:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=49389#comment-252434</guid>
		<description>Hopefully, recovery will happen and the unemployment rate will decrease.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hopefully, recovery will happen and the unemployment rate will decrease.</p>
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		<title>By: Transor Z</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/picking-up-the-slack/comment-page-1/#comment-252432</link>
		<dc:creator>Transor Z</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Feb 2010 20:46:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=49389#comment-252432</guid>
		<description>@Invictus:

OK, you have your next assignment: 
&quot;Frequency of blog commentary as indicator of marital satisfaction&quot;

or

I&#039;m thinking the chart would look an awful lot like the top chart (comment freq in blue)...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Invictus:</p>
<p>OK, you have your next assignment:<br />
&#8220;Frequency of blog commentary as indicator of marital satisfaction&#8221;</p>
<p>or</p>
<p>I&#8217;m thinking the chart would look an awful lot like the top chart (comment freq in blue)&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: The Curmudgeon</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/picking-up-the-slack/comment-page-1/#comment-252431</link>
		<dc:creator>The Curmudgeon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Feb 2010 20:43:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=49389#comment-252431</guid>
		<description>@Invictus...yeah, what&#039;s worse, it was the first two:)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Invictus&#8230;yeah, what&#8217;s worse, it was the first two:)</p>
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