I don’t recall where this is from, but it seems appropriate today:
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An Indian-born economist once explained his personal theory of reincarnation to his graduate economics class. "If you are a good economist, a virtuous economist," he said, "you are reborn as a physicist. But if you are an evil, wicked economist, you are reborn as a sociologist." —Paul Krugman, "Peddling Prosperity: Economic Sense and Nonsense in the Age of Diminished Expectations" (1994, page xi):
Weather impacted Feb Housing Starts totaled 575k annualized, 5k above estimates but down from 611k in Jan which was revised up by 20k. Permits totaled 612k, 11k above expectations but down from 622k in Jan. With both starts and permits, single family and multi family categories fell. Single family construction fell in the Northeast and South but rose in the Midwest and West. Weather notwithstanding, builders have been getting ready for the spring selling season and the last hope, for now, for people to take advantage of the upcoming expiration of the home buying tax credit while mortgage rates remain...
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February 8th, 2010 at 6:09 pm
Welling@Weeden
February 8th, 2010 at 6:35 pm
So do people seek shelter in the dollar or is the decline of the Euro already baked in?
February 8th, 2010 at 6:43 pm
Daring the Gods? BTW do rating agencies have any cred left?
__________
Geithner Says U.S. Will ‘Never’ Lose Aaa Debt Rating (Update1)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahGwg7V3u3Gs
Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) — Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said the U.S. is in no danger of losing its Aaa debt rating even though the Obama administration has predicted a $1.6 trillion budget deficit in 2010. “Absolutely not,” Geithner said, when asked in an ABC News interview broadcast yesterday whether a downgrade is a concern. “That will never happen to this country.”
February 8th, 2010 at 7:04 pm
Well, Churchill once said “We will never surrender” and he was right too. In the case of the US’ AAA rating it’s also a slam dunk, “We will never surrender.
February 8th, 2010 at 7:47 pm
Chance the Gardener: I like to watch.
President “Bobby”: Mr. Gardner, do you agree with Ben, or do you think that we can stimulate growth through temporary incentives?
[Long pause]
Chance the Gardener: As long as the roots are not severed, all is well. And all will be well in the garden.
President “Bobby”: In the garden.
Chance the Gardener: Yes. In the garden, growth has it seasons. First comes spring and summer, but then we have fall and winter. And then we get spring and summer again.
President “Bobby”: Spring and summer.
Chance the Gardener: Yes.
President “Bobby”: Then fall and winter.
Chance the Gardener: Yes.
Benjamin Rand: I think what our insightful young friend is saying is that we welcome the inevitable seasons of nature, but we’re upset by the seasons of our economy.
Chance the Gardener: Yes! There will be growth in the spring!
Benjamin Rand: Hmm!
Chance the Gardener: Hmm!
President “Bobby”: Hm. Well, Mr. Gardner, I must admit that is one of the most refreshing and optimistic statements I’ve heard in a very, very long time.
[Benjamin Rand applauds]
President “Bobby”: I admire your good, solid sense. That’s precisely what we lack on Capitol Hill.
February 8th, 2010 at 7:51 pm
The big European countries (i.e. the Germans) will bail Greece out Barry. They have no option – unless they want the Euro to collapse.
It’s more an issue of when. Since Greece has to raise impossible amounts of money in order to pay for previous bond editions by May, I’d bet the bailout would come in some form between Thursday and May.
February 8th, 2010 at 8:01 pm
How About the Crumbling American Economy?
—–
The Death of an American Community–
by johndamos | February 6, 2010
My county is dying. As I ride to Spartan Express gas station to get my 5 gallons of gas for my pickup, I notice that the readout on the Citgo gas pump has been vandalized, and the pumps are bent and beat up. A few years ago, the Hugo Chavez-Venezuela gas station and its pumps were kept in pristine condition.
I gas up and drive to Biscuit King, a locally owned restaurant where a senior like me can buy one egg on toast and cup of decaf for $3.87. As I leave, I note the large factory that used to produce fine quality Henry Link furniture sitting empty with vines growing through its massive rusting roof. There is one old beat up pickup sitting in the parking lot behind a chain link fence…security guard. I drive past a couple of houses, and stop at a new pawn shop that has just opened on this side of town. I walked in the other day and discovered a vintage 1966 Fender Musicmaster guitar for $55.00. These things are super collectable and this one was in beautiful shape.
I leave the Pawn Shop and head to the Goodwill Store. We have a rather good situation for bargain shoppers with lots of quality used merchandise, but few people with much money to buy…so it’s a buyer’s market right now, but that will change real soon as the quality merchandise is sold off and worn out. Right now, there are lots of consumer shoppers doing the same thing I’m doing for my family…hoarding for a time when there will be no more available at a price I can afford.
I move through the furniture and appliances first, scoping out things…looking for antiques or needed or unusual high quality things I don’t have already. A couple of months ago, I found a beautiful oak and walnut Victorian table in mint condition for $20. There are quite a few beautiful, new-looking Singer and other brand sewing machines available, but my wife or nobody I know sews anymore except the Mexican immigrant ladies who grab up the good machines quickly and take them home, or send them to families in Mexico and South America.
I go to the clothing racks. Wife and daughter have given me a card with their sizes so I shop for high quality items that don’t show much wear. I recently bought two Agner purses for $5.00 for each of them and both of my ladies have closets full of brand name clothing. I’m presently looking for a Prada purse for wife because she loves the movie, “Devil Wears Prada.” Some of the rich ladies change $300 to $1000 purses and clothing as often as they go shopping, and they donate their used stuff to charities for hubby’s tax writeoffs. As I leave Goodwill, I note the Mid-State-Tile plant that is closed…overgrown lawns and rusting roofs…went to Mexico first and then on to China…once employed over 1000 workers and paid good wages and benefits.
-snip-
The chain restaurants are still flourishing where the interstate crosses, but the uptown privately owned restaurants are already closed or have scaled back until they close at 7:00 in the evening because of a lack of business. A few Mexican shops that specialize in ethnic foods or goods have opened, but these are limited. Everywhere, empty factories and buildings sit idle…factories that once kept this place alive and employed directly or contributed to the employment of at least 10,000 people in our county.
more at…
http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/26614
February 8th, 2010 at 8:25 pm
“I don’t recall where this is from”
How hard is it to google “Deligne news comic” and end up with Frederic Deligne?… He works at Nice Matin, a french Newspaper.
http://www.cagle.com/politicalcartoons/PCcartoons/deligne.asp
February 8th, 2010 at 10:17 pm
@ fillipofspice
I remember watching that movie long ago and being totally confused as to what was going on. Intriguing how memorable it was. I guess I can’t have been too young the first time I saw it and I think I must have seen it since with better understanding. I can’t remember the name of it. Dustin Hoffman was Chance the Gardener.
February 8th, 2010 at 10:19 pm
@ flipspiceland I mean…lol
February 8th, 2010 at 10:37 pm
@flipspiceland (7:47)
I remember mentioning that on May 24th of last year – among OTHER things on that same thread…
Glad you’re a FAN…
cvienne
February 8th, 2010 at 11:10 pm
As posted on zerohedge, Greece is 3%of the Eurozone economy. California is 13% of the US economy. Perspective is required.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jim-grant-california-and-greece
February 9th, 2010 at 5:10 am
The late great Peter Sellers of the original Pink Panther series “A Shot in the Dark” being best entry (Ah,..Miss Gambarelli!….sweeeet!) is Chance the Gardener and Warren Beatty’s sister does her thing rather well here. He begged Jerzy Kosinski, the author of the novel and screenplay, in a phone call saying he was Chance and cast himself.
Go long Kalamata olive oil (must say ‘Product of Greece’ on the label stuff) and help the Greeks out. Trader Joe’s has it everywhere.
Meanwhile, build up your film memory bank with IMDB !
February 9th, 2010 at 6:42 am
happy talk just ain’t cuttin’ it:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6191#more
February 9th, 2010 at 9:21 am
Re: Greece
Will gobal finance find itself dependent on a lone Spartan gurding the Acropolis with a pan-style Greek pizza ?
Atlas, where are you ?
http://www.well.com/user/davidu/atlas_jp40.jpg
February 9th, 2010 at 10:00 am
To borrow from Bernie Mac, “My people, I don’t know WTF is wrong with us, I donno what’s wrong with us…”
Actually, there is so much tax revenue left on the table that raising the money is the least of their problems. They did the same shit to window-dress their way into the Eurozone. They’ll do the same to get out of this mess…anything to avoid a bailout. They are so against a bailout that, should they be given one, they’d piss away the money just for spite.
The trick will be to do this without scuttling the economy and/or popping asset bubbles…when you start taxing someone that has a house, a condo, a summer place on the islands, a yacht, three cars, yet declares 15k Euro income (and you let him because you don’t have tracking infrastructure in place), shit’s going to jump off.
February 9th, 2010 at 10:56 am
@Simon:
The movie was Being There with Peter Sellers. You’re probably thinking of Dustin Hoffman as Rain Man.
Jerzy Kosiński’s novel was a sort of zen koan about how stupidity manages to rise to the top. After seeing the movie, and being impressed by the philosophical-sounding title, I went to find the book and was mildly surprised to find it a lot more zen than German existentialist. The book reads almost like a screen play, there is so little difference between the two.
The passage quoted above neatly matches our political moment in the U.S., but with Larry Summers cast improbably in the Chance role. Of course, that analogy depends on equating Chance the momentary ‘economic advisor’ to Summers. During the movie Chance moves from ‘intellectually challenged’ (is that the term Palin approves of?) domestic employee, to trusted confidant of a billionaire, lover of said billionaire’s soon-to-inherit gold-digging spouse, economic advisor to the president, nominee presumptive of the (one can only assume) Republican party, and apparent second-coming of Christ.
Starting instead with the ‘nominee presumptive’ role, the analogy to the half-term Governor of Alaska is probably a better fit. (Half-Baked Alaska?)
February 9th, 2010 at 10:59 am
Since all of the federal government’s debt is denominated in dollars and the Fed can create dollars in unlimited quantities to pay interest and principal on the debt, it’s hard to understand what motivated Moody to threaten to lower America’s AAA rating. The risk of default (in nominal dollar terms) is zero.
Regarding the Greek financial crisis, why would a Greek default sink the euro? If the European central bank held tough and let Greece work through its troubles without a bailout, that tough stance should STRENGTHEN the euro, no? Instead euro investors are acting as though they want a central bank bailout. If I’m a holder of euros and I see the European central bank bailing out first Greece, then Portugal, Spain and Ireland with newly minted money, how would that bolster confidence in the euro?