Wall Street Journal Forecasting Survey (Whoopee)
Their mediocre track record not withstanding, it seems you just cannot stop the economic crowd from making forecasts.
The WSJ has the latest round up of gibberish:
“About a quarter of the 8.4 million jobs eliminated since the recession began won’t be coming back and will ultimately need to be replaced by other types of work in growing industries, according to economists in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey.
While the job market is constantly shifting as some sectors fade and others expand, this recession threw that process into overdrive. Thousands of workers lost jobs as companies automated more tasks or moved whole assembly lines to places like China. As growth returns, so will job creation—just with a different emphasis in the mix of jobs being created.
Economists in the survey are predicting a slow upswing for the economy as a whole. Respondents on average expect economic growth to settle at about 3% in 2010, off sharply from the powerful 5.7% seasonally adjusted annual growth rate in the fourth quarter.”
click for interactive graphic
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Source:
Many Jobs Gone Forever, Economists Say
PHIL IZZO
WSJ, FEBRUARY 12, 2010
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703382904575059424289353714.html
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February 11th, 2010 at 9:39 pm
To repeat my earlier post in this more focused section:
Manufacturing jobs will not return. Even if China were to double the value of the RMB and even if wages were to double in China, it would make zero difference in cost competitiveness. If it did, it would move to India, Bangladesh, Vietnam etc.
Fact is, MNC’s have record profit margins as a result of “Globalisation” but the man on the street has no job (And actually record profit margin is great only so long as you have a customer to provide the sales multiplyer).
The world is re-balancing and living standards are rising in the developing world, with a commensurately declining standard of living in the West. This process is irreversible IMHO because it is in the interests, at least the short term interests, of MNC’s. Which now ARE the US policy makers under a totally dysfunctional democratic system with a corrupt Congress.
February 11th, 2010 at 10:32 pm
3% now there’s an original number…
February 11th, 2010 at 11:03 pm
Excuse me, “about a quarter of the jobs won’t come back”. Is like, none of them coming back anyplace close to a quarter?
More importantly, how many will come back at a comparable pay/benefit level.
Massive deflation is ongoing. Income.
And our wonderful gov is spending our trillions to ensure that asset deflation does not occur.
Hint, hint, hint.
Think about it. When you vote.
And what exactly are our growing industries. Hmmm, do they involve the fed gov? Best hope I guess.
February 11th, 2010 at 11:11 pm
The Wall Street forecasters are as dependable a reverse indicator as a magazine cover, a M* five-star fund rating, the hourly ‘Buy Gold Now’ ad count…
February 11th, 2010 at 11:53 pm
Mainstream pundits wax elegiac on unemployment without ever acknowledging Marx’s conclusion (“reserve army of labor”) that unemployment is a systemic requirement of capitalism. (Marx’s conclusion did not rest upon Malthusian premises.)
Marx, alas, was a physician who could diagnose brilliantly but not cure. In consequence, we have to listen the the babble of the mainstream economists as their beloved system lurches from crisis to ebullience and back, ad nauseum.
February 12th, 2010 at 1:13 am
“Increased Automation and Relocations Overseas Means a New Employment Mix Will Take Hold When Hiring Resume….”
And in other news, rain is still wet.
The US has been shedding jobs to overseas as fast as the National Association of Manufacturers can ship them there.
February 12th, 2010 at 3:05 am
[...] – The latest round of forecasting gibberish. [...]
February 12th, 2010 at 3:06 am
Interesting that everyone focuses on the ‘shipping of jobs overseas’. No one discusses the affect automation has had on the economy, which is probably far larger than the exportation of jobs. It seems to be something that is poorly understood as ‘job exportation’ is the only thing focused on in the media, mainstream or not.
February 12th, 2010 at 4:10 am
Yes the economists are right. I’ve seen entrepreneurs outside of WalMart selling Tootsie Rolls at $1.00 each. Inside the store they are 2/$1.00 + tax. The business model might not be robust but it could count as a job. I don’t believe this work has health insurance or other benefits.
February 12th, 2010 at 7:32 am
Does anyone know the proper technique for pulling numbers and other facts out of one’s ass?
Are gloves required … probably not as some appear to have mastered this skill with blinding speed and without regard for consequences. Is it best performed standing, sitting, or squatting? I gues everyone should jut be careful who they shake hands with.
February 12th, 2010 at 7:38 am
as homer would say, DOH
gosh, we’ve been talking about that for a year
imho, what folks really miss is china, over the last ten years, they’ve gone from probably 1980′s mgf processes to state of the art in almost all industries, example, they just built a slew of new steel plants, so they essentially have a similar problem
February 12th, 2010 at 7:48 pm
Most large scale manufacturing industry in China is Sate owned, which means that the capital account is State controlled and, as much as the Obama administration is trying to achive the same , it is not yet there. This gives Chinese manufacturers an advantage.
Conversely, wages and benefits are left to the free markets and at $100-200 per month. A population base of 1.6Billion means that this also is unlikely to change and again provides a huge competitive advantage.
This results in very large profit margins and, unlike US Corporations, Chinese Companies profits are already “At home” so they pay their taxes to the Government, further enhancing reserves.
Finally, China has both the accumulated reserves (From shipping cheap cra*p to the US) and the authority to deploy these resources rapidly without endless political debate and lobbyists running around all over the place. This means that the allocation of capital, whilst not always entirely correct, does become productive far more rapidly than in the West. This speed of action also applies to corrective measures in controlling economic mix and growth, for instance the anti-inflationary measures via increasing Bank reserves presently being implemented.
Perhaps the US model of “Democracy” and “Free markets” needs to take a good look at itself in the mirror? Continue to under-estimate China at your peril.
China has by no means the same problems as the US!!
February 12th, 2010 at 9:22 pm
If you don’t believe such a dismal forecast, then why would you believe them when they say the recession is over, and were in recovery mode? First off, if the government keeps extending the benefits to those unemployed, they won’t be out looking for other work. 99 weeks is a long time to sit at home and get a paycheck for doing nothing. Stimulus wasn’t used to creat jobs, it was used to pay the benefits for those unemployed and to keep those teachers and firemen and other government employees employed. But now the states are out of cash. Soon they will have to start making some hard decisions. Its time state and government employees took the next hit.
Small businesses are on the sidelines watching to see whats the next move by Obama and his gang. Cap and Trade, Obamacare, would all cost businesses more money. Banks are still not lending to the small guy. a lousy $5000 tax break isn’t going to get business to hire. I was watching fox business this week. I don’t recall the guys name but he was a small businessman. He said that if he hired someone and fired him after 30 days because the employee couldn’t do the job, the employer would be stuck with paying the guys unemployment and end up costing him $20,000. Until business sees a big swing back to the way it used to be, their not about to start hiring again in any big way. JMOP
February 13th, 2010 at 7:51 am
…”Perhaps the US model of “Democracy” and “Free markets” needs to take a good look at itself in the mirror? Continue to under-estimate China at your peril.
China has by no means the same problems as the US!!”
They may not have the *same* problems, but they’ve still got big problems. They are doing a lot of “make work” to keep people employed building export capacity that isn’t needed. The populace appears to be speculating in real estate and commodities (in yuan) and hoarding them because the government won’t let their currency float and they discourage consumption and enforce savings trying to control massive inflation.
February 14th, 2010 at 12:15 pm
Another reason some people shouldn’t watch Fox News. They believe everything they hear.
http://www.ctdol.state.ct.us/progsupt/unemplt/uceligb.htm