Not to make today all me-media all the time, but since people asked, here are the links to the 3 Yahoo segments I recorded yesterday:
• Weak New Home Sales Report Least of Housing’s Problems, Barry Ritholtz Says
• Something’s Gotta Give: Rising Retail Profits Meet Falling Consumer Confidence
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
"Dollar depreciation leads to higher inflation and ultimately forces foreign creditors to question their rationale and indeed their sanity for continuing purchases of U.S. Treasuries." -Bill Gross
Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended Feb 18th totaled 351k, 4k less than expected but the prior week was revised up by 3k to 351k. The 4 week average did fall to 359k from 366k, the lowest since Mar '08. Continuing Claims fell by 52k to the lowest since Aug '08. Also, Extended Benefits fell a net 69k. Bottom line, the data still points to a labor market that continues to improve however lumpy the process feels for many. ...
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February 25th, 2010 at 3:50 pm
For laughs, check out the Yahoo comments — just the dumbest collection of stoned college kids you have ever seen aggregated anywhere
February 25th, 2010 at 4:19 pm
Why? Because they disagree with you? There was a time not too long ago that you sounded not too far from that. While they may not have (or care about) the linguistic art/style that you do, they appear to have legitimate concerns. If you want to talk your book, no one can fault you for that, but there is no need to bash skeptics to justify your capitulation. You’re making money on the rally now, great. Did you “call the bottom?” I don’t remember the timing that way. I recall a “trade” in a “bear market rally” and I also recall the process being iterative. In addition, I think you took some money out of equities during one or more of the rally stalls. It’s all about the framing, dude. If you are going to bully and come across as a market sage, refrain from the “called the bottom” commentary – it implies that you went balls deep on March 9th, 2008. I don’t think so.
February 25th, 2010 at 4:20 pm
I point out the Yahoo comments because they have been consistently foolish, representing the worst of herd mentality.
Go back and look at the comment stream of the links below — they are bullish at the top, bearish at the bottom, w/o a discernible thought process, just aggressively wrong, personifying an ignorant and arrogant mob.
That they disagree with me is a huge positive, and the contrarian in me thinks if they ever started agreeing with me, I’d better rethink my position.
As to “my capitulation” — what capitulation? I came into ’09 Bearish, said “cover your shorts,” late February, and suggested a major bear market rally was in the offing early March. Other then mentioning minor corrections, I’ve been on the long side since.
Here are the videos — interpret them as you will:
Dec 30 2009 Tech Ticker’s Guest of the Year — it will give you brief excerpts of all the years calls — its a good overview
If you want to wade into the specific calls, here are what i dug up quickly in terms of Yahoo appearances:
Nobody is perfect — I am wrong all the time — but I don’t see how you can find fault with these market calls
February 25th, 2010 at 4:34 pm
re: “Ritholtz: Still Bullish After All These Gains”
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/01/broken-support-next-stop-1038/ (2010-01-29)
I guess I missed the move down to 1038 …
~~~
BR: Came within 6 points of it on 2/4/10 . . .
That’s technicals — it aint precise rocket science, its a ballpark guess . . .
February 25th, 2010 at 6:09 pm
Ok, it’s going to be an L-shaped recovery, drawn out over years. I get it. My long career in real estate ain’t coming back.
So now I’m an older, severely under-employed worker. Do I go to school to get a new trade or wait it out till things get better and hope I can make it till retirement? Can you say “screwed”? I knew you could.
February 25th, 2010 at 6:40 pm
Make your money, let them whine they missed the turn cause you didnt go “balls deep” — and forget them.
Why do you even respond to these fools and haters?
February 25th, 2010 at 7:05 pm
Hey Barry, bad smell around here this morning (My time). I can see that you are going to be forced to reduce the price of your free service before too long?
~~~
BR: heh heh
100% satisfaction guaranteed or double your money back !
February 25th, 2010 at 7:07 pm
I’m with you on both retail and Asia. China’s growth will first help those nations the encircle them such as Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, etc.
re retail, I think Walmart did the industry a favor by initiating “price optimization” (aka raising prices). They could have wiped out a number of their competitors but instead they have allowed them to survive inspite of reduced consumer demand.
The time will come however when Walmart can no longer boost profits at the expense of lost customers and store traffic. When this threshold is crossed we can well expect a price war as Walmart attempts to win them back.
At least that is my theory. When it happens, no clue.
February 25th, 2010 at 7:08 pm
Love your blog Barry, but I have to disagree with you a bit on your sunny outlook. My philosophy is that, after the 6th inning, it’s a market of stocks more than a stock market. Look at the cracks in the foundation..here’s a list a stocks that have clearly broken down and are experiencing a decent correction (10-20%): GOOG top 1/1/10, BAC top 10/15/09, GLD top 12/1/09, KLAC 12/27/09, KO 12/15/09…. I could continue. Anyone holding these has lost money recently.
~~~
BR: Understand I am drawing a disinction between what the market does and what the economy will do. Right now, the long side is winning — despite mediocre econ data . . .
February 25th, 2010 at 7:09 pm
Dennis Says: February 25th, 2010 at 6:40 pm
~~
to, you know, borrow, from Above..
or, differently, x2
February 25th, 2010 at 7:18 pm
“Why do you even respond to these fools and haters?”
Criticism is healthy though, if it makes you think, it can be constructive. BR has definitely put up with his fair share and handles it better than a lot of other blog authors.
February 25th, 2010 at 7:22 pm
@Dennis “fools and haters?” I don’t think so. I wouldn’t be here if I hated the guy. I’ve got better things to do with my life.
I have the utmost respect of Barry’s prowess, but draw the line at the portrayal as an all-knowing oracle of the markets (which seemed to be the central theme of the selected clips).
I don’t think that anyone can argue with the notion that ultra-low rates will pump up bubbles in spots within the economy — in this case it’s in equities, bonds, and banksters’ bonuses. But at the same time it’s exceedingly difficult to pinpoint the moment when a bubble will pop, unless it’s some premeditated popping action (like the Fed raising the Fed Funds rates a half point). The usual popping action is from some unanticipated Black Swan — a military kerfluffle, terrorist act in a sensitive place, perhaps some unexpected national default and the attendant global credit crunch.
The risk in such cases is not from the popping itself, it’s from the magnitude of the bubble when it is popped, and how far it is possible for things to fall. So after a huge zero-interest-rate rally that has gone on for about ten months without a significant retracement, how far d’ya think it is possible that things might fall when the unexpected occurs … what is the risk in being “balls deep” at this point in the run?
Sure, it could continue up to infinity and beyond … but it could also drop like a rock tomorrow, because the thing that punctures the bubble is not going to be something that shows up as a technical market indicator.
February 25th, 2010 at 7:50 pm
CN — we agree – I think its a matter of staying nimble enough not to get caught leaning to heavily the worng way, and be ready to reverse yourself when the time comes.
February 25th, 2010 at 8:11 pm
I was referring not to constantnormal but to 4horsemen.
February 25th, 2010 at 11:48 pm
Drudge Report says Obama plans to outlaw foreclosures unless they go through his HAMP first. The government will fight the reality of what they have done to this economy with Free trade and Open Borders to the bitter end. Extend and pretend. The Senate does not want to extend the COBRA 65% subsidy, costs too much.
How about the trillions spent in IraqoPakoGhanistan? I guess Joe SixPack should just quietly starve to death in the gutter, maybe sell his kidneys for spare change. John McCain wants to outlaw vitamins. It just keep gettting worse.
~~~
BR: Drudge? He is days behind TBP — we posted a confidential Treasury memo on that an discussed it here on Tuesday.
February 25th, 2010 at 11:52 pm
US restrictions on foreclosures coming? I can just imagine the resulting backlog and the lawsuits from banks for being kept in limbo while prices decline…(good management if prices rise during limbo contest)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahuuwBS8KYq8&pos=2
February 26th, 2010 at 1:35 am
Barry, thanks for clearly providing links to your appearances elsewhere and briefly summarizing their significance. As someone once commented, we expect to read what you think on *your own blog*. And, after all, it’s what draws many eyeballs to your blog instead of Tech Ticker. Right? (Let Tech Ticker have the dumbass college kids/readers…)
February 26th, 2010 at 9:37 am
Barry Ritholtz Says:
February 25th, 2010 at 4:20 pm
That they disagree with me is a huge positive, and the contrarian in me thinks if they ever started agreeing with me, I’d better rethink my position.
reply:
—————
The concept on contrarianism works only when it is not a mainstream concept. Read some stories on Marketwatch and other sites. Everybody is a contrarian now. It’s the new black. Everyone looks good in it. Since most modern thinkers are contrarians and it is impossible for all to be right at the same time AND make money (the law of averages prevents that with 100% efficiency), I’m going contrarian here and state that some contrarians are wrong.
Since contrarianism implies an expression of vanity that states “I’m smarter than the masses, I’m not a follower, I’m unconventional” and so many contrarians appear to exist, I suspect what we really see is an expression of megalomania. Rather than betting against the crowd, the modern ‘contrarian’ uses the concept as an excuse to avoid cogent and analytical thinking. It’s the lizard breaking out, but as a faux intellectual.
~~~
BR: Just go read the comments — this is not merely a crowd, it is an ignorant mob
February 26th, 2010 at 9:53 am
BR: Just go read the comments — this is not merely a crowd, it is an ignorant mob
reply:
————-
I read a few and, while I don’t make a habit of following Yahoo comments on much of anything, these actually sounded a little smarter than many I remember. That’s not saying much, however. My recollection of Yahoo comments is mostly incoherent and far off point sentences with lots of swearing. Maybe the clientele has improved and I missed it, but expecting smartness from Yahoo comments is a lot like expecting your dogs to sing opera and taking it personally that they didn’t.
February 26th, 2010 at 11:53 am
I feel that I should make a few more points here. This is no place for fist-fights, but to Dennis, Philipat, Hoffer: if I am a “hater and fool” then you boys are ignorant strokers. Go fellate your heroes elsewhere. As some have said, Barry has thick skin and is a thinker – he does not need the defensive chivalry of the BP message board crew.
First, I am not a hater. I have been a reader since TBP’s inception, and still read it daily. I have long been a fan of BR’s detailed and often outside-the-box thinking. Lately, though, it appears that the critical analysis has been slightly less detailed than I remember and perhaps less balanced. I totally agree that this might also be just my perception. Regardless, I am still a daily visitor. If nothing else, if gives me an idea of what’s running through Goldman Sachs’ and the Fed’s heads.
Second, how am I a fool? I simply stated that – asshats or not – the Yahoo comments were valid and not deserving of elitist bashing. They may have been worded out of pot-induced stupor, and they may have been blatantly wrong in some cases. But BR said himself that he distinguishes between the market and the economy. The market is not reflecting reality. In that case, what the asshats believe or opine may be equally or more relevant than what is “correct.” I also took issue with your delivery, or framing, as I put it. We all know 2008 and 2009 were tough years. The market broke many a broomstick sodomizing some of the smartest “pundits.” I agree that your calls were in the right ballpark, albeit somewhat hazy at times. Surely this was reflected in your performance as well. But at the end of the day, nobody likes to see someone patting himself on the back, especially those who have not been successful. BR refers to the Yahoo asshats as arrogant & ignorant. Ignorant maybe, certainly not well informed. Perhaps more cynics than skeptics. But arrogant? I didn’t get that from them. From BR’s comment, yes. Is it deserved? Sure. But there is far too much hubris in this business, and semi-public figures could do well with some humility.
Incidentally, Dennis…”let them whine they missed the turn.” Now THAT is ignorant. How exactly would you pick that gem up from anything I said? The fact is, I had a good year. Above average. This was exceedingly difficult to do under the restrictions of mutual funds. But my cash was near zero in early March and I was loaded up on Financials in the early rally, shifting to later cyclicals around mid-year. So no, I didn’t “miss” anything. But I am not shitting on anyone who might have, either.
On contrarianism: I agree with dead hobo here. The whole “everyone is bearish so I am bullish” thing smells fishy. There may be a lot of bearish talk, but the fact is that the markets 1) are expensive, 2) continue to hold gains or make new ones, and 3) defy logic (up on bad news, down on good). SOMEBODY is buying. Brokers sure don’t appear bearish at my end. The caveat in this debate is: bullish WHAT? I am bearish the economy, bullish certain cheap sectors/stocks, and bearish others. Do I have a lot of cash? No. I am also not comfortable trying to time this market. I trust that patience pays.
Finally, on Bubbles: I like constantnormal’s perspective here. We all know bubbles by now. There is a tremendous amount of justification that goes on trying to rationalize why the market is where it is or why it will keep going – in spite of valuations, sub-par economics, risks, etc. We hear about green shoots, less bad, deltas, Fed liquidity, emerging market growth, etc. These are all justifications. The reality is that these all require assumptions. Assumptions of continued liquidity. Assumptions that China is run by fiscal masterminds and growth is a straight-line track. These are all heady assumptions, but I would argue that THESE are the “easy trades,” since they are the trends that are backed up by recent data and market moves. The hard trades dig deeper and require more skepticism. At the end of the day, people get killed by bubbles because they ultimately defy the trends.
One more point on this. Barry says: “I think its a matter of staying nimble enough not to get caught leaning to heavily the worng way, and be ready to reverse yourself when the time comes.” I think this very much sums up a consensus view. I read many blogs and talk to many people, and this opinion seems to ring out loudly – many on this site.
“I know this is a bubble, but it could last a while, do I am going to invest – just smarter than everyone else.” It echoes the old adage, “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” Hell, even Soros says, “When I see a bubble, I invest in it.” This explains alot. We KNOW what we are getting into, but most are not prepared to remain on the sidelines waiting it out. For many/most – this will be the kiss of death.
That’s my piece.
BTW – nice to see so many picked up on a re-used “balls deep!” Loves it!