If you found the prior post on Employment too cheerful, well, have a gander at these charts, courtesy of  The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis by way of Jim Picerno’s Capital Spectator.

This is a fascinating look at where in each post war recession the recovery can be marked as beginning.

Have a look at the bottom chart; If the 2007-09 Recession end up being anything like the 2001 recession, we are still 4 or 5 years away from a full jobs recovery back to employment levels prior to the crash.

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The Recession and Recovery in Perspective

click for interactive version

Category: Data Analysis, Employment

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

28 Responses to “Change in US Employment Recession/Recovery”

  1. Thor says:

    So according to these charts there are 11 different ways the job market could pan out over the next several quarters? :-)

  2. willid3 says:

    i am thinking given what we know today that we really never recovered from the 2001 down turn and that the one we are on is just the second dip from that one. only much steeper and deeper.

  3. ashpelham2 says:

    I tend to agree with you willid3. But it’s not so cut and dry as to say “down turn” and then “recovery”. As with everything, it’s regional, and it varies by economic measurement. In terms of employment, yes, this is the second leg down in a huge evacuation of jobs in the United States, headed to other locales or out of existence altogether.

    However, in terms of bank growth or small business growth, this is an entirely new recession, separate from the 2001 downturn.

    I always have the thought pop into my mind when I think of the economic “recovery” of 2003 and on, how much of that was done by smoke and mirrors? Banks and lenders coaxing homeowners into tapping into equity, because there were less jobs and lower stock values because of the dot.com burst? That money tapped created bubbles in inherent inflation in some products and services. And home values appreciated to the stratosphere.

    Now, here we sit all broken hearted; paid a dime and only farted.

  4. Transor Z says:

    With you also, willid3.

  5. globaleyes says:

    July 30th, 1965 is the day baby boomers started subsidizing their parents. We’ve been in a boomer-lead, deficit-fueled recession ever since.

    My views are not mainstream but history is on my side.

    (wink)

  6. franklin411 says:

    I concur with willid3. At least when FDR spent taxpayer money to hire Americans to reduce unemployment during the 30s, he put them to work building things we needed–dams, roads, bridges, highways, airports.

    Bush spent taxpayer money in the form of massive tax breaks for the rich (and don’t kind yourself…tax cuts and deficit spending are two sides of the same coin) that went to building things we *didn’t* need and are now nearly *worthless*–Jet skis, Margaritaville machines, McMansions, and Tickle-Me Elmos.

    The only difference was that FDR built things that were GDP-positive, while Bush blew our wad on things that were GDP-negative.

  7. Mannwich says:

    I agree with willid3 as well. We never recovered from the ’01 recession. Just put off that day of reckoning a bit. Sounds familiar……

    Oh yeah, that’s what we’re doing now too. I’m sure this “recovery” will be even less robust (real) than the last one. Great job guys. Hard to truly recover when we continue to misallocate capital on such a grand scale and continue to reward the incompetents, irresponsible, scoundrels and criminals.

  8. super_trooper says:

    @franklin411, looks like Obama will be in a good spot to be renamed George the III.

  9. Mannwich says:

    @f411: Tax cuts that aren’t funded (and that one wasn’t) are definitely two sides of the same deficit spending coin, but shhhhh, you’ll never get the teabaggers to understand that one. Too complicated for them. Tax cut, good, taxes, bad. That’s the extent of their “thought processes”.

  10. Mannwich says:

    ….funded by the requisite spending cuts, that is……

  11. ashpelham2 says:

    Is there anyone else in the room who sees a very tough road for Mr. Obama to be re-elected? I just can’t see it. Too much ill-will built up on the other side of the aisle. What is America like after our first (half) African American president? Who could possibly take his seat in the Oval Office? What was Britney thinking :D?

  12. super_trooper says:

    @Mannwich, when in history have incompetents, irresponsible, scoundrels and criminals not been rewarded?

  13. Mannwich says:

    @super_trooper: Fair point, but recessions (and Depressions), if failure is allowed to happen, usually cleaned enough of them out. Now they not only don’t get cleaned out, they get rewarded in a big way. I guess it’s just more pronounced (and obvious) to me now.

  14. Mannwich says:

    There is a penalty to be paid for doing anything and everything to freeze the status quo so the elites feel as little shared pain and sacrifice as possible. We’re living throught it now. Bizarro world reigns supreme. We need to hit the giant red reset button and start over. Ain’t gonna happen without much unrest from the Sheeple, who are sedated with other distractions right now.

  15. zell says:

    Have any of you viewed the Bill Black interview Barry has in the video section? A must see !

  16. call me ahab says:

    well- the way I see it- once we are all working for the federal government unemploment will be a thing of the past-

    and where is the new ammendment- that every American has a right to a job and of course food, housing, health care- you just need be breathing to earn these rights-

    liberty- who needs that?

    those founding father’s must have been some real tea bagging malcontents to come up with that one

  17. call me ahab says:

    and f411-

    FDR . . . please-

    talk about a tyrant- dude interned innocent Americans (the Japanese)- confiscated private property (gold)- packed the courts so he could pass his agenda- had public works programs that would make Mao himself- the architect of the Great Leap Forward- a proud man-

    stop w/ all that blathering nonsense please

  18. Thor says:

    Ahab – revisionist history is always fascinating 70 years out.

    Far be it from me to come to F411′s defense, but let’s call Libertarian/ Austrian spin on history for what it is – alternate propaganda.

  19. call me ahab says:

    admit thor-

    you and franklin are best buddies- and correct me where I’m wrong- since you are all knowing-

    I guess maybe he didn’t confiscate gold or intern Japanese or pack the courts or have public work projects-

    fucking history books- what are they good for

  20. Thor says:

    Ahab – I don’t want to hijack BR’s thread here, but with regard to internments – yes, it was a horrible time in our history. It also happened to a very different country in a very different time. I understand that, I know MY morality, in THIS time, is not the same as values and morality 70 years ago. Your line of thought is one often used by those who advocate the US government (ie, you and me) should pay reparations for slavery. Where exactly do you draw the line here?

    Roosevelt tried to pack the courts, he was unsuccessful. Yes, those horrible public works projects were a complete waste of time and money. I’m sure the citizens of Los Angeles, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Tennessee would give that power and water back if they could!

    History books – yes, those are horrible sources for information. Apparently the sources you read to come to your conclusions are the “correct” ones. All your doing is parroting the standard libertarian/ Austrian party line on Roosevelt. That’s no different than F411′s parroting of the standard liberal/historian BS.

  21. Dow says:

    For what it’s worth – 1990 is missing from both charts.

  22. call me ahab says:

    so thor . . .throwing everything else aside-

    confiscation of personal property held by people for their own welfare was by itself an egregious act that trampled on people’s basic rights- and would be considered such going back to the start of the Republic to now-

    but think what you want

  23. Thor says:

    Ahab – Agreed.

  24. alfred e says:

    Getting back to the original premise.

    @willid3: Yeah pretty fucking obvious isn’t it.

    Not like before.

    But our ass-hole elites want to say the recession is over and everything is on the upswing.

    I seriously doubt the green line will ever turn very positive.

    @BR: great chart. Great bait.

  25. PeterR says:

    Looks like Hal from Space Odyssey 2001 has taken over the graphing function also.

    Sigh.

    Fasten seat belts for April Fool’s day after March window dressing IMO.

  26. Simply-Put says:

    The charts from the Minneapolis FED illustrate a very severe recession compared to all other previous economic contractions. I would call this downturn a good old fashion depression. The question is what’s the government doing about it now!

    Franklin Roosevelt promised “a new deal for the American people.”:

    “Throughout the nation men and women, forgotten in the political philosophy of the Government, look to us here for guidance and for more equitable opportunity to share in the distribution of national wealth… I pledge myself to a new deal for the American people. This is more than a political campaign. It is a call to arms.”

    The New Deal brought about many safeguards; The most important program of 1935, and perhaps the New Deal as a whole, was the Social Security Act, which established a system of universal retirement pensions, unemployment insurance, and welfare benefits for poor families and the handicapped. The Banking Act of 1933, which decisively rescued commercial banking from its entanglement with the extraneous business of security flotation and market plunging and then required commercial banks to divorce themselves from their security affilates. Several New Deal programs remain active, with some still operating under the original names like the FDIC.

    What kind of depression would this have been if the above safegards had not been in place. We already know the results from the removal of Glass–Steagall Act.

  27. Ted Kavadas says:

    I have found these charts to be very interesting…especially how our present situation is so severe (in both length and extent) from a historical perspective.

    Those who find these charts interesting may want to look at similar charts I have posted at my blog here:

    http://www.economicgreenfield.com/2010/03/25/disturbing-charts-part-ii/

  28. clawback says:

    Thor,

    That’s not “revisionist” history. What you call the “libertarian” propaganda version of FDR is actually the view that people (many of them) had *at the time*. Go to stacks in any good university library (Franklin 411 should try this ;-) ) and you will see dozens of books offering the same critique of FDR that you hear today from libertarians. Just because libertarians are just about the only ones who remember this view of FDR doesn’t make it the propaganda equivalent of more recent, hagiographic views of FDR.
    *******************************************
    That being said, WHAT recovery?