Comments on: Its ALWAYS a Good Time to Buy a House! http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/its-always-a-good-time-to-buy-a-house/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 21:03:30 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: Marc P http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/its-always-a-good-time-to-buy-a-house/comment-page-1/#comment-261655 Marc P Tue, 16 Mar 2010 19:17:42 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54050#comment-261655 "We can get back to the norm in either of two ways, Mr. Ritholtz says: home prices can either drop an additional 15 percent or go sideways for seven years or so, while G.D.P. and income presumably grow." "GDP and income presumably grow" meaning inflation that raises nominal wages but not real wages? Or do you see something on the horizon that would raise real wages? America has under-educated a generation of children. America's immigration policy is heavily tilted towards encouraging blue-collar workers to come here. The past decade has seen a strong discouragement of more highly-educated immigrants. High school diploma jobs aren't likely to increase in real wages. Do you see something I don't? [Probably, and that's why I'm curious.] “We can get back to the norm in either of two ways, Mr. Ritholtz says: home prices can either drop an additional 15 percent or go sideways for seven years or so, while G.D.P. and income presumably grow.”

“GDP and income presumably grow” meaning inflation that raises nominal wages but not real wages?

Or do you see something on the horizon that would raise real wages? America has under-educated a generation of children. America’s immigration policy is heavily tilted towards encouraging blue-collar workers to come here. The past decade has seen a strong discouragement of more highly-educated immigrants. High school diploma jobs aren’t likely to increase in real wages.

Do you see something I don’t? [Probably, and that's why I'm curious.]

]]> By: mclynn http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/its-always-a-good-time-to-buy-a-house/comment-page-1/#comment-261252 mclynn Mon, 15 Mar 2010 13:43:18 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54050#comment-261252 "Mr. Ritholtz advises buyers to look at three metrics: the ratio of median income to median home prices, which suggests whether people can afford a house; the cost of ownership versus renting; and the value of the national housing stock as a percentage of gross domestic product." Does anyone know where I can find these statistics? ~~~ <strong>BR</strong>: I post them occasionally, they are available thru data services klike Bloomberg “Mr. Ritholtz advises buyers to look at three metrics: the ratio of median income to median home prices, which suggests whether people can afford a house; the cost of ownership versus renting; and the value of the national housing stock as a percentage of gross domestic product.” Does anyone know where I can find these statistics?

~~~

BR: I post them occasionally, they are available thru data services klike Bloomberg

]]> By: MikeG http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/its-always-a-good-time-to-buy-a-house/comment-page-1/#comment-261147 MikeG Mon, 15 Mar 2010 00:10:25 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54050#comment-261147 “It’s always a great time to buy <i>or</i> sell a home...we just don't know which!" “It’s always a great time to buy or sell a home…we just don’t know which!”

]]> By: Mark E Hoffer http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/its-always-a-good-time-to-buy-a-house/comment-page-1/#comment-261078 Mark E Hoffer Sun, 14 Mar 2010 17:40:44 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54050#comment-261078 "..will we see multiple generations moving into them and sharing the burden –graduating kids without jobs to pay their loans and would be retirees that were relying in their home equity? Is the number of generations per household for the middle class coming to a point of inflection?.." Jim, good point, to your Q: (above), A: We are seeing it, now http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=new+housing+trends+multi-generational+living “..will we see multiple generations moving into them and sharing the burden –graduating kids without jobs to pay their loans and would be retirees that were relying in their home equity? Is the number of generations per household for the middle class coming to a point of inflection?..”

Jim,

good point, to your Q: (above), A: We are seeing it, now

http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=new+housing+trends+multi-generational+living

]]> By: Jim Hodson http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/its-always-a-good-time-to-buy-a-house/comment-page-1/#comment-261072 Jim Hodson Sun, 14 Mar 2010 16:51:26 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54050#comment-261072 The amount of the drop is certainly going to be geographically specific, but other segments to watch suggest a few things to keep an eye on. First, keep an eye on the overall down-sizing of homeowners migrating downward leaving a glut of McMansions with few buyers to fill them. Following, with that downward pressure on these oversized houses, will we see multiple generations moving into them and sharing the burden –graduating kids without jobs to pay their loans and would be retirees that were relying in their home equity? Is the number of generations per household for the middle class coming to a point of inflection? The amount of the drop is certainly going to be geographically specific, but other segments to watch suggest a few things to keep an eye on. First, keep an eye on the overall down-sizing of homeowners migrating downward leaving a glut of McMansions with few buyers to fill them. Following, with that downward pressure on these oversized houses, will we see multiple generations moving into them and sharing the burden –graduating kids without jobs to pay their loans and would be retirees that were relying in their home equity? Is the number of generations per household for the middle class coming to a point of inflection?

]]> By: Pete from CA http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/its-always-a-good-time-to-buy-a-house/comment-page-1/#comment-261068 Pete from CA Sun, 14 Mar 2010 16:30:19 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54050#comment-261068 As a renter in Silicon Valley, one of the areas least impacted by the housing bust, I've been keeping an eye on the lower end (read: $200K-$300K) of housing prices to make sure renting is still the better option. Since January I am seeing significant drops in the listing prices. For example, condo in South San Francisco going from $290K to $234K: http://www.redfin.com/CA/South-San-Francisco/1107-Mission-Rd-94080/unit-211/home/17040391 I'd still classify this as overpriced crap but it's a ~20% reduction nonetheless. Another round like that and I might be buying! As a renter in Silicon Valley, one of the areas least impacted by the housing bust, I’ve been keeping an eye on the lower end (read: $200K-$300K) of housing prices to make sure renting is still the better option. Since January I am seeing significant drops in the listing prices. For example, condo in South San Francisco going from $290K to $234K:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/South-San-Francisco/1107-Mission-Rd-94080/unit-211/home/17040391

I’d still classify this as overpriced crap but it’s a ~20% reduction nonetheless. Another round like that and I might be buying!

]]> By: Marcus Aurelius http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/its-always-a-good-time-to-buy-a-house/comment-page-1/#comment-261067 Marcus Aurelius Sun, 14 Mar 2010 16:16:02 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54050#comment-261067 Venn: It's not just Obama, and there's still plenty o' accounting chicanery at the federal level (mark to fantasy, for example). While I did vote for and have high expectations for Obama, the reality is that he has not been the transformative leader I had "hoped" for. He is simply the lesser of 2 evils. Next time around, I'll vote for Kucinich, Grayson, or even Ron Paul (although I don't really care for Paul's positions on social issues). The dream ticket would be Kucinich/Paul. Let the little dudes kick some ass. Venn:

It’s not just Obama, and there’s still plenty o’ accounting chicanery at the federal level (mark to fantasy, for example). While I did vote for and have high expectations for Obama, the reality is that he has not been the transformative leader I had “hoped” for. He is simply the lesser of 2 evils. Next time around, I’ll vote for Kucinich, Grayson, or even Ron Paul (although I don’t really care for Paul’s positions on social issues). The dream ticket would be Kucinich/Paul. Let the little dudes kick some ass.

]]> By: Space_Cowboy_NW http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/its-always-a-good-time-to-buy-a-house/comment-page-1/#comment-261062 Space_Cowboy_NW Sun, 14 Mar 2010 15:54:19 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54050#comment-261062 Regarding condos, 50% drop is about right........ blog.oregonlive.com/frontporch/2010/03/all_you_wanted_to_know_about_t.html I know some folks who bought (there) in 05/06 who are so far underwater that they might not live long enough to recover from their purchase price. Regarding condos, 50% drop is about right……..

blog.oregonlive.com/frontporch/2010/03/all_you_wanted_to_know_about_t.html

I know some folks who bought (there) in 05/06 who are so far underwater that they might
not live long enough to recover from their purchase price.

]]> By: MayorQuimby http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/its-always-a-good-time-to-buy-a-house/comment-page-1/#comment-261061 MayorQuimby Sun, 14 Mar 2010 15:50:54 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54050#comment-261061 Housing is a liability not an asset. Prices should be MUCH lower but the sheeple have bought into the misperception that housing is an asset. It is not. It will cost $10,000 - $20,000 (or more) per annum just to heat, power, protect, insure, pay tax on and maintain a house. It's kinda like this - you hand someone a shit sandwich and tell them, "Isn't it just deLICIOUS?!!!" a thousand times until they start to eventually believe it. Housing is a liability not an asset. Prices should be MUCH lower but the sheeple have bought into the misperception that housing is an asset. It is not. It will cost $10,000 – $20,000 (or more) per annum just to heat, power, protect, insure, pay tax on and maintain a house.

It’s kinda like this – you hand someone a shit sandwich and tell them, “Isn’t it just deLICIOUS?!!!” a thousand times until they start to eventually believe it.

]]> By: Jim Hodson http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/its-always-a-good-time-to-buy-a-house/comment-page-1/#comment-261060 Jim Hodson Sun, 14 Mar 2010 15:47:02 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54050#comment-261060 Flip has it right. It can be a great time to buy...at a price. The market needs to be allowed to work without hype or bias. Buying a home can be fair and honest. Imagine a marketplace where objective information was provided to prospective buyers before they became emotionally involved. Imagine offers being managed anonymously to take out the influence of those with bias. Imaging a price reducing each day until an offer is systematically matched. Countdown To Buy is proving just that. Flip has it right. It can be a great time to buy…at a price. The market needs to be allowed to work without hype or bias. Buying a home can be fair and honest. Imagine a marketplace where objective information was provided to prospective buyers before they became emotionally involved. Imagine offers being managed anonymously to take out the influence of those with bias. Imaging a price reducing each day until an offer is systematically matched. Countdown To Buy is proving just that.

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