Comments on: Long Term Growth in US Labor Force http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/long-term-growth-in-us-labor-force/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 21:16:44 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: Mark E Hoffer http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/long-term-growth-in-us-labor-force/comment-page-1/#comment-262248 Mark E Hoffer Wed, 17 Mar 2010 20:53:09 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54536#comment-262248 Jim Rockford’s Pontiac Esprit..(?) http://www.gardenofspeedin.com/partslocguides/lnkpontiac.html http://www.underhoodservice.com/Article/47775/pontiac_forced_off_the_road.aspx http://www.cargurus.com/Cars/Overview-c7587-1974-Firebird.html tenaciousd, are you in Canada? I hadn't heard the Firebird referred to as an 'Espirit', in quite awhile.. past that, that was some serious Brand Equity GM flushed, down the drain, when they pulled the plug on Pontiac, no? Jim Rockford’s Pontiac Esprit..(?)

http://www.gardenofspeedin.com/partslocguides/lnkpontiac.html
http://www.underhoodservice.com/Article/47775/pontiac_forced_off_the_road.aspx
http://www.cargurus.com/Cars/Overview-c7587-1974-Firebird.html

tenaciousd,

are you in Canada? I hadn’t heard the Firebird referred to as an ‘Espirit’, in quite awhile..
past that, that was some serious Brand Equity GM flushed, down the drain, when they pulled the plug on Pontiac, no?

]]> By: tenaciousd http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/long-term-growth-in-us-labor-force/comment-page-1/#comment-262135 tenaciousd Wed, 17 Mar 2010 16:34:42 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54536#comment-262135 Reading Kotkin's book now. Quite good. I think he errs on the side of over-optimism. But, even if you discount him by 10% (fair I think), it's still a good outlook. I think the Boomers are going to zone most of America's cities into economic oblivion in order to prop up their housing values, which will be a difficult adjustment and create much inter-generational friction. In regards to ugly cars, I take exception. Jim Rockford's Pontiac Esprit is still the coolest car ever! Reading Kotkin’s book now. Quite good. I think he errs on the side of over-optimism. But, even if you discount him by 10% (fair I think), it’s still a good outlook. I think the Boomers are going to zone most of America’s cities into economic oblivion in order to prop up their housing values, which will be a difficult adjustment and create much inter-generational friction.

In regards to ugly cars, I take exception. Jim Rockford’s Pontiac Esprit is still the coolest car ever!

]]> By: Wednesday links: unparalleled disequilibrium Abnormal Returns http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/long-term-growth-in-us-labor-force/comment-page-1/#comment-262130 Wednesday links: unparalleled disequilibrium Abnormal Returns Wed, 17 Mar 2010 16:20:42 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54536#comment-262130 [...] Long term demographics provides optimism for the US economy.  (Big Picture) [...] [...] Long term demographics provides optimism for the US economy.  (Big Picture) [...]

]]> By: ashpelham2 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/long-term-growth-in-us-labor-force/comment-page-1/#comment-262073 ashpelham2 Wed, 17 Mar 2010 13:53:49 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54536#comment-262073 The most ironic thing of all is that we are doing more to degrade our standard of living than any government or conspiracy could ever do. In my mind, every dollar that goes to China or Indonesia or whoever, is a dollar taken away from a US worker. Those same folks who used to shop at higher end stores that now shop exclusively at wal-mart are shopping their own jobs away. I don't visit wal mart very often, but just a run-through one night last week, in a hurry admittedly, I observed a few less choices on some aisles than once existed. Now, the argument can be made that "efficiency" has taken over, and it's a valid argument. But I see wal mart, as the worlds largest retailer, now exerting so much influence as to impact an entire nation's unskilled labor force. Not wanting to start an anti-wal mart thread here, but I see a direct relationship to their success and our nation's ability to employ people in lower wage, unskilled labor position. The most ironic thing of all is that we are doing more to degrade our standard of living than any government or conspiracy could ever do. In my mind, every dollar that goes to China or Indonesia or whoever, is a dollar taken away from a US worker. Those same folks who used to shop at higher end stores that now shop exclusively at wal-mart are shopping their own jobs away. I don’t visit wal mart very often, but just a run-through one night last week, in a hurry admittedly, I observed a few less choices on some aisles than once existed. Now, the argument can be made that “efficiency” has taken over, and it’s a valid argument. But I see wal mart, as the worlds largest retailer, now exerting so much influence as to impact an entire nation’s unskilled labor force.

Not wanting to start an anti-wal mart thread here, but I see a direct relationship to their success and our nation’s ability to employ people in lower wage, unskilled labor position.

]]> By: bondjel http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/long-term-growth-in-us-labor-force/comment-page-1/#comment-262071 bondjel Wed, 17 Mar 2010 13:50:39 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54536#comment-262071 If you think the 70s were so bad you must have missed the 80s and the beginning of the age of Reagan from which we are still suffering. Here's what "true" conservative Andrew Bacevich has to say about Reagan: "You describe Ronald Reagan as the "modern prophet of profligacy. The politician who gave moral sanction to the empire of consumption." ANDREW BACEVICH: Well, to understand the truth about President Reagan, is to understand why so much of what we imagined to be our politics is misleading and false. He was the guy who came in and said we need to shrink the size of government. Government didn't shrink during the Reagan era, it grew. He came in and he said we need to reduce the level of federal spending. He didn't reduce it, it went through the roof, and the budget deficits for his time were the greatest they had been since World War Two. " Whole interview: http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/08152008/transcript1.html If you think the 70s were so bad you must have missed the 80s and the beginning of the age of Reagan from which we are still suffering. Here’s what “true” conservative Andrew Bacevich has to say about Reagan:

“You describe Ronald Reagan as the “modern prophet of profligacy. The politician who gave moral sanction to the empire of consumption.”

ANDREW BACEVICH: Well, to understand the truth about President Reagan, is to understand why so much of what we imagined to be our politics is misleading and false. He was the guy who came in and said we need to shrink the size of government. Government didn’t shrink during the Reagan era, it grew.

He came in and he said we need to reduce the level of federal spending. He didn’t reduce it, it went through the roof, and the budget deficits for his time were the greatest they had been since World War Two. ”

Whole interview:

http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/08152008/transcript1.html

]]> By: Hot Links: Greatest Headline Ever The Reformed Broker http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/long-term-growth-in-us-labor-force/comment-page-1/#comment-262022 Hot Links: Greatest Headline Ever The Reformed Broker Wed, 17 Mar 2010 12:01:38 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54536#comment-262022 [...] A reason for optimism within a secular bear market.  (TBP) [...] [...] A reason for optimism within a secular bear market.  (TBP) [...]

]]> By: Jojo http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/long-term-growth-in-us-labor-force/comment-page-1/#comment-261966 Jojo Wed, 17 Mar 2010 08:48:29 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54536#comment-261966 You assume all those people will find some way to be gainfully employed. I don't think that will happen. A post-industrial society needs LESS workers with each step forward in time that it takes. You assume all those people will find some way to be gainfully employed. I don’t think that will happen.

A post-industrial society needs LESS workers with each step forward in time that it takes.

]]> By: perra http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/long-term-growth-in-us-labor-force/comment-page-1/#comment-261958 perra Wed, 17 Mar 2010 08:22:33 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54536#comment-261958 @BR "Even though I know the cyclical bull rally within the longer bear will eventually end with a significant correction of ~25%" You mean at some point during the current supereon? Or do you have a specific epoch mind? @BR
“Even though I know the cyclical bull rally within the longer bear will eventually end with a significant correction of ~25%”

You mean at some point during the current supereon? Or do you have a specific epoch mind?

]]> By: philipat http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/long-term-growth-in-us-labor-force/comment-page-1/#comment-261943 philipat Wed, 17 Mar 2010 07:20:35 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54536#comment-261943 Looking at it another way, a surplus of labour means that the US should be encouraging investment in labour-intensive industry to absorb all the excess labour, just as China is doing today. The logical conclusion is that, although today US labour costs cannot compete today, as US Corporations continue to ship manufacturing overseas, living standards in the developing world will steadily increase, whereas structural unemployment in the US will steadily reduce living standards in the US. Therefore, by 205o, labour costs in the US will be low enough by global standards to allow manufacturers to take advantage of the US labour pool and relocate low cost manufacturing jobs to the US. These trends are actually already well in place, but I'm not sure it is entirely something to look forward to? Looking at it another way, a surplus of labour means that the US should be encouraging investment in labour-intensive industry to absorb all the excess labour, just as China is doing today. The logical conclusion is that, although today US labour costs cannot compete today, as US Corporations continue to ship manufacturing overseas, living standards in the developing world will steadily increase, whereas structural unemployment in the US will steadily reduce living standards in the US. Therefore, by 205o, labour costs in the US will be low enough by global standards to allow manufacturers to take advantage of the US labour pool and relocate low cost manufacturing jobs to the US.

These trends are actually already well in place, but I’m not sure it is entirely something to look forward to?

]]> By: Mr. Micawber http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/long-term-growth-in-us-labor-force/comment-page-1/#comment-261902 Mr. Micawber Wed, 17 Mar 2010 04:19:35 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=54536#comment-261902 Um, we're scraping the bottom of the barrel for sweet light crude (not oil generally, but the oil that can be had without turning massive tracts of land into post apocalyptic waste, or without massive expenditures of money). We're depleting the aquifer in the Great Plains, the aquifer that allows our agriculture out there, the aquifer that took millions of years to form, at a rate way faster than it can be replaced. We're polluting at a massive rate thanks to ourselves, China, and India. How exactly is adding another hundred million people to our country going to help? If anything, that will all accelerate the problems. Um, we’re scraping the bottom of the barrel for sweet light crude (not oil generally, but the oil that can be had without turning massive tracts of land into post apocalyptic waste, or without massive expenditures of money).

We’re depleting the aquifer in the Great Plains, the aquifer that allows our agriculture out there, the aquifer that took millions of years to form, at a rate way faster than it can be replaced.

We’re polluting at a massive rate thanks to ourselves, China, and India.

How exactly is adding another hundred million people to our country going to help? If anything, that will all accelerate the problems.

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