- The Big Picture - http://www.ritholtz.com/blog -
Long Term Growth in US Labor Force
Posted By Barry Ritholtz On March 16, 2010 @ 3:00 pm In Economy,Mathematics | Comments Disabled
The future is never as dire looking as the survivalists make it out to be. Even though I know the cyclical bull rally within the longer bear will eventually end with a significant correction of ~25%, I have been playing this on the long side. That’s optimism!
I lived through the 1970s — an era of sky high interest rates, ugly cars, polyester and disco — so I now how bad life can get in the USA.
My motto: Hope for the best, but be prepared for the worst.
With that thought in mind, let’s have a look at a long term chart that is actually encouraging. It comes from the book “The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050 .” Many people are surprised to learn that America “boasts the highest fertility rate: 50 percent higher than Russia, Germany or Japan, and well above that of China, Italy, Singapore, Korea and virtually all of eastern Europe.”
In terms of economic development, this demographic factor provides a long term advantage — think of the financial bulge of the Baby Boomers (while ignoring everything else they screwed up).
That leaves us with this chart, which has potenetially long term, positive connotations:
Chart courtesy of Joel Kotkin 
Hat tip Kevin!
Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog
URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/long-term-growth-in-us-labor-force/
URLs in this post:
 Bear camp: http://blogs.forbes.com/digitalrules/2010/03/7-band-bull-to-bear-spectrum/
 long term secular bear market: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/the-hibernating-bear/
 The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1594202443/thebigpictu09-20
 Image: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/laborforce-growth.png
 Joel Kotkin: http://joelkotkin.com/content/00188-what-american-demographics-will-look-2050
Copyright © 2008 The Big Picture. All rights reserved.