Monday Linkage
By Barry Ritholtz - March 15th, 2010, 4:30PM
Some reading material you may find interesting:
• Apple, Wal-mart, and the “Market Capitalization Bigger Than” Thing (Infectious Greed)
• L.A. becomes a test case in battle to undo interest rate swap deals (LATimes)
• Special Interest (New Yorker) The private-equity fund manager’s tax dodge
• Our money laureate. (The Big Money)
• No one can stop Mr. Slim, the worlds richest man (Business management)
• China May Face ‘Massive’ Bank Bailouts After Stimulus Program (Bloomberg)
• Politics, shaky economy create no rush to restructure Fannie and Freddie (Washington Post)
• Who are the Online Publishing Companies That Matter? (Permuto)
• 26 Gigapixel Photos of Paris (Image) Try zooming in as far as it will let you…
What are you reading?
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March 15th, 2010 at 4:41 pm
I finally got round to ordering J.K. Galbraith the Elder’s masterpiece, “The Great Crash 1929″ … it has a new foreword by J.K. Galbraith the Younger (that is, James K. Galbraith) which names names in the future rogues’ gallery related to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008.
As it happens, on the fiction side I’ve been reading and savoring Thomas Mann’s “Confessions of Felix Krull, Confidence Man”.
These two works might seem unrelated but in fact share much in common…
March 15th, 2010 at 4:50 pm
Social Security to start cashing Uncle Sam’s IOUs: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100315/ap_on_bi_ge/us_social_security_ious
The Five Thousand Year Leap
March 15th, 2010 at 5:30 pm
That 26 gigapixel image of Paris is incredible! It even captured 2 woman walking out a shadow area near the center of the photo.
March 15th, 2010 at 6:10 pm
FINALLY an article agrees with my put on AAPL. God. It feels good.
March 15th, 2010 at 6:25 pm
@jrm
When you say “it feels good”, I take it that your puts are profitable? It should not feel good if you are losing money.
Just to make it clear where my loyalties lie, I sold all my shares of AAPL this morning. But I’m not short the stock. I just took a profit. THAT felt Good.
March 15th, 2010 at 6:30 pm
@ewmayer
When you finish reading “the Great Crash 1929″, please report back on your impressions vis-a-vis the level of fraud and corruption in the markets then vs now.
I’m wondering of my own perceptions are askew.
Hard to assess, due to different levels of communication/information availability, and different tools to part people from their money, and a different target (at least as I see it — then the target of the Goldman Sachs of the industry was apparently the small fry investor, today, the deceivers are hunting much larger prey).
March 15th, 2010 at 6:36 pm
Apple’s due for a drop.
March 15th, 2010 at 6:47 pm
• 26 Gigapixel Photos of Paris (Image) Try zooming in as far as it will let you…
that is a good trick..
here: “If you printed it out you would have an image 105 meters long and 35 meters high, almost the size of a football field. It’s the world’s largest photo ever taken and it displays the beautiful skyline of Dresden, Germany. Taken by Holger Schulze with a 400 mm lens camera by AFB Media GMBH, the image is a composite of 1,665 photos each about 21 megapixels (Mpx) in size. A robotic stand was used to capture the city during a slow rotation that took 172 minutes to complete. A specially made computer (with a whopping 4 terrabytes of hard disk space and 48 GB of memory) was needed to stitch the photos together into the final image. The process took 94 hours over 11 days. Still, talking about the photo doesn’t really do it justice. You can view the interactive version on the official website and watch a video about its creation after the break…”
http://singularityhub.com/2009/12/23/worlds-largest-digital-photo-is-26-gigapixels-of-dresden-skyline/
one of Dresden..
with that in mind, try pondering what NASA, et al., can see.. ;)
March 15th, 2010 at 7:35 pm
http://www.cracked.com/article_18461_5-creepy-ways-video-games-are-trying-to-get-you-addicted_p1.html
#5. Putting You in a Skinner Box
“If you’ve ever been addicted to a game or known someone who was, this article is really freaking disturbing. It’s written by a games researcher at Microsoft on how to make video games that hook players, whether they like it or not. He has a doctorate in behavioral and brain sciences. Quote:
“Each contingency is an arrangement of time, activity, and reward, and there are an infinite number of ways these elements can be combined to produce the pattern of activity you want from your players.”
Notice his article does not contain the words “fun” or “enjoyment.” That’s not his field. Instead it’s “the pattern of activity you want.”..”
~~
note recent push of “Behavioral Economics”..
~~
Sultans of Swap: Fearing the Gearing!
“There are 7 stages to executing a successful sting operation. Whether this is the modus operandi behind the Sultans of Swap operating in the $605 Trillion OTC Derivatives market or just simple coincidence, I will leave it to you shrewd reader to determine. The seven stages do however offer us an instructive theater guide to better understanding these murky instruments called Interest Rate Swaps…”
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/gtlong/2010/0312.html
March 15th, 2010 at 7:50 pm
Democratic leaders say health bill will pass–
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/14/AR2010031402793.html
Democratic leaders scrambled Sunday to pull together enough support in the House for a make-or-break decision on health-care reform later this week, expressing optimism that a package will soon be signed into law by President Obama despite a lack of firm votes for passage. The rosy predictions of success, combined with the difficult realities of mustering votes, underscore the gamble that the White House and congressional Democrats are poised to make in an attempt to push Obama’s health-care plans across the finish line. The urgency of the effort illustrates growing agreement among Democratic leaders that passing the legislation is key to limiting damage to the party during this year’s perilous midterm elections
~~~
The Fix: The Final Countdown to the Health care vote
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/morning-fix/315-health-care-vote.html?hpid=topnews
In six days time, President Obama’s health care bill will almost certainly have either passed or failed — although which of those two options will be better for Democrats politically this fall remains an open question
March 15th, 2010 at 8:04 pm
Here is a nice feel-good story from Chile: http://www.latamdaily.com/2010/03/01/girl-saved-island-village-from-tsunami-by-sounding-alarm-chile-earthquake/
I would note for you all that Chile is suffering significant problems with its electrical system.
Also, why did John Paulson and George Soros take strong positions in a junior miner called NovaGold? This guy has an interesting thesis:
Novagold (NG): Call option for the megarich
http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2010/03/novagold-ng-call-option-for-megarich.html
I am also reading up on neutron generators, geological modelling and Multi-Transient EM techniques. All as it relates to PBR, Pre Salt, and the current row with the US over cotton(?).
March 15th, 2010 at 8:12 pm
Nearly 7.5 Million Loans Are In Some Stage of Delinquency; Estimated One Million Properties in REO Status
http://www.lpsvcs.com/NewsRoom/Pages/20100315.aspx
“Based on data extrapolated from the LPS servicing database, nearly 7.5 million loans are in some stage of delinquency or foreclosure, with an additional one million properties in REO or post-sale foreclosure. In addition, approximately 2.5 million loans that were current on Jan. 1, 2009, were 60 or more days delinquent (including foreclosures) as of Jan. 31, 2010. Despite extraordinary loss mitigation efforts that have resulted in the execution of approximately two million loan modifications – including the federal government’s Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) trial periods – the number of new delinquencies since January 1, 2009, still exceeds this number by 25 percent.
The nation’s pool of problem loans continues to grow and stagnate. More than 31 percent of loans that have been delinquent for six months are not yet in foreclosure, while 22.8 percent of loans delinquent for 12 months have not been moved to foreclosure status (up from 9.0 percent in 2008).”
Emphasis added.
March 15th, 2010 at 8:30 pm
So Henry “Hank the Tank” Paulson is coming to speak at my University this week. Does anyone have an intelligent question that can get him sweating? I’ll ask it if possible, and report back.
March 15th, 2010 at 8:38 pm
@infracanis: Are you being paid for this speech and if so how do you have the gall to do that after banking so much money?
March 15th, 2010 at 8:46 pm
This review is from: The 5000 Year Leap: A Miracle That Changed the World (Paperback)
By Chris E. Thompson (Nampa, Idaho) – See all my reviews
Over the years I’ve read many books on the founding of America, the Constitution and our government. From the Federalist papers to present day books on specific politicians and policies. This book has put a perspective on how America came to be the ‘Tip of the Sword’ of planetary development in only 200 years after a human history that runs on for many centuries consisting of bare bones existence for the masses by illuminating not ‘just’ the beliefs of the Founders but what they were from the inside out… and what their intent for this nation really was.
Above all they were academicians in every aspect of the word… but also they actually felt individually responsible not only for what they were doing but for each and every word they uttered or wrote in regards to the archival evidence they understood they were creating for the new Government. Something you won’t find in any politician today.
An easy read, very enjoyable and ultimately educational. Be careful, you may actually learn something you didn’t know.
http://www.amazon.com/Five-Thousand-Year-Leap-Twenty-Eight/dp/0880800046
or, in a package deal http://www.nccs.net/ftyl.html
~~
“Electromagnetic (EM) methods offer the ability to detect resistive targets that may correspond to hydrocarbons, and they are increasingly being used for exploration and delineation of discoveries. The geophysical study of EM in the shallow earth can identify the spatial location of resistive zones. Hydrocarbon-bearing rocks exhibit increased resistivity relative to surrounding water-bearing rocks, and thus detection of highly resistive zones may indicate the presence of hydrocarbons.
In that context, resistivity profiling has the potential to discriminate between commercial and non-commercial hydrocarbon saturation within a reservoir. Of course, not all resistors are hydrocarbons. Salt, impermeable carbonates, coals, igneous intrusions and volcanic layers are all significant resistors. So interpretation of the apparent resistivity profiles should be constrained by all other available data…”
http://www.epmag.com/article/print/3639
nice topic Arequipa~
March 15th, 2010 at 10:09 pm
Well China repeat it’s history pattern of a shift in power every fifty years or so? This seems to be how China has lived ever since the Shang Dynasty. The power seems to flow between a central or center then out to the people then back to a center or central authority. A yin/yang if you will. With the central government lending money to the over 1000 local providences could this be a shift from the central government lending the US money?
March 15th, 2010 at 10:23 pm
ewmayer:
You should also get his book on manias and bubbles. Can’t remember the name of it at the moment, but you’ll know it by the name. It’s short and a quick read. His description of the characteristics of manias is scary since it could have been written last year about the housing bubble.
March 15th, 2010 at 10:39 pm
Joseph Martinez:
The Chinese central government almost has to blow bubbles to keep the country stable. It was only 40 years ago that the Cultural Revolution was in full swing and out of control, killing and and reducating, analogousgov to The Terror post revolution France. There was some doubt whether communist china could survive.
As I’ve said before, the current government’s main claim to legitimacy is prosperity; it certainly can’t claim to be the same governmnet Mao founded. Profligate lending was the only quick way to prop up the economy that was collapsing because we were no longer buying. Trouble is, how long can they keep it up and what happens when the bubble starts deflating?
Lending money to the US is a different issue. I was just a way to recycle all the cash they were getting from exports to arethe US. Otherwise their currency would rise and make them less competitive. They are forced to continue that until they can shift from their export oriented economy. See http://www.mpettis.com for more info on that.
March 16th, 2010 at 7:30 am
It appears the FBI is pretexting
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100316/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/us_feds_on_facebook
~~~
BR: I believe that is called investigative law enforcement
March 16th, 2010 at 10:39 am
@Mike in Nola Says & Joseph Martinez:
The book I believe you are referring to is Devil Take the Hindmost by Chancellor. It is a great read and I’ve recommended it to many people completely uninterested in markets because it’s much more about how people can get whipped into frenzies. There is another title from maybe the late 19th century but it’s name escapes me at the moment.
March 16th, 2010 at 10:39 am
@Mike in Nola Says & Joseph Martinez:
The book I believe you are referring to is Devil Take the Hindmost by Chancellor. It is a great read and I’ve recommended it to many people completely uninterested in markets because it’s much more about how people can get whipped into frenzies. There is another title from maybe the late 19th century but it’s name escapes me at the moment.
March 16th, 2010 at 11:23 am
ROT In America: Systematic Discrimination and Exclusion In Federal Reserve (FOMC) Appointments?
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/TheNewForum/message/25976