This WSJ headline (March 8), perfectly captures the contrarian case for bullishness: The market’s up ~70% from the year-ago lows, and investors are still either apathetic or outright dislike stocks. There seems to be neither fear nor greed, just complacency (VIX = 17.42).
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Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
"Money is power, & you ought to be reasonably ambitious to have it." —Russell H. Conwell, Temple Univ, 1877
"It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine" say the French as consumer confidence in May rose to the highest since Nov '10 as they welcome and get excited about new Pres Hollande. Also, the French 10 yr bond yield touched the lowest on record this morning. June consumer confidence in Germany held at 5.7, just .2 pts off the highest since Mar '11. To the euro bond debate which is now taking on greater rhetoric with those with high bond yields wanting them and those with low ones saying no way, ECB member...
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March 8th, 2010 at 10:47 am
BR opined:
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There seems to be neither fear nor greed, just complacency (VIX = 17.42).
reply:
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No. Apathy is a better explanation. Computers control the market. New money would just bias the market upward. Bad news had the same effect … have you noticed that on every day in the past couple of weeks where bad news was announced, the market went up and sometimes spiked upward? That’s just weird.
People won’t enter a game they know to be crooked unless they think they will come out on the winner’s side. Such as when people thought home prices would rise forever or mark to model was a valid valuation technique. No such fantasy exists today among the people, just on Wall Street and only if you have a good computer.
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BR: In the top right hand corner of every post an author credit.
This post is by Invictus
March 8th, 2010 at 10:47 am
Maybe because the Average Joe knows it is a rigged game? Does anyone know what’s going to happen when Bernanke pulls the supports? And haven’t the banks refrained from marking down bad loans?
March 8th, 2010 at 10:52 am
Yep, the VIX has fallen asleep in its beer and Mr. Market is getting so brave that he has been seen getting out of his chair to punk gold. This is not good. I’m just waiting for gold to stand up and say, “Who are you callin’ yella?” That’s the time to exit the bar folks.
Just remember that this was the same Mr. Market that was crying for his momma back last March. My how things can change
March 8th, 2010 at 10:58 am
I would humbly disagree with the premise of this post. Equity fund managers are sitting on record low levels of cash. Stocks are up 15 of the past 19 sessions – 8% in total. Articles that proclaim the return to a normal economy, like the one you posted by Floyd Norris on Saturday, are everywhere
If individual investors are shunning the market, its because they’re either broke or that they realize that its a rigged game.
The market has lost its moorings. I’m almost embarrassed by the gains in some of the stocks I’ve bought over the past year. I no longer check their prices. I put in GTC stop loss orders on all of them. The next time I’ll know what price they’re trading at is when I get an ‘order filled’ notice on them.
March 8th, 2010 at 11:00 am
The calm before the storm.
March 8th, 2010 at 11:00 am
There seems to be an anecdotal move from denial to acceptance though of late, perusing various sites.
March 8th, 2010 at 11:02 am
@beatstreet said:
Does this not — quite literally– define apathy?
March 8th, 2010 at 11:07 am
Just a casual obeservation….breadth is shrinking, the advance/decline line seems to be worsening, volume is drying up, econmic reality is dismissed by hope so the only “players” out there are some sillyassed computer programs that are totally disconnected from reality. Until there is some correlation between facts /reality and the market I think I will just copy “beatstreet” – put in GTC stops – play cards and golf and let the market wander along in total denial. It is pretty pathetic in taol and apathy seems to rule the day
March 8th, 2010 at 11:22 am
Beatstreet, Carleric:
Werent you closed out on your GTC stops in late Jan? Or back in late Oct? Or mid-July?
I dont understand… the recent return to 1120 (begin of year levels) has now made you “embarrassed by gains” despite a very strong Q4 by companies and indications that Q1 will again beat EPS expectations?
Smells like you arent making sense.
March 8th, 2010 at 11:38 am
Too much skepticism and liquidity still for this to die at this stage without an event that disrupts things. With the slow release flow this week it may be a choppy period as the short term needs to relax a bit, until Thursday.
Recall what Sir John Templeton said, “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” Problem is the year-long rally is probably NOT a bull market, but a correction from panic in a continuing bear market.
March 8th, 2010 at 11:56 am
Cognos, that’s a very fair point. I don’t want to come across as some sort of timing master, because I’m not.
I was referring specifically to the run-up over the past 4 weeks. I’m really interested in selling into this rally, but don’t want to miss more of the move. I instead decided to put in stop-loss orders and will ignore what I believe to be a casino, not a market. Might I end up looking like a genius … yes. Might I end up getting whipsawed and looking like an ass (something I’m used too) … yes.
However, I’m very comfortable w/the prices I’ve decided to sell at, should they get hit. I will take the proceeds and look for the next good trade.
I’m sure there’s a way to contact me through my log-in name. Feel free to do so and I’d be happy to give you more details on the positions!
March 8th, 2010 at 12:22 pm
Cognos…..some of the extrmeme silliness in February led me to my current positions…..I plead guilty to being somewhat of a short term player around my core positons. Stops take the pressure and/or concern away, allow me to book profits and relax……and by the way – beating expectations is just another joke…..folks who base investment decisions on that metric are playing a fool’s game in my opinion but to each his own…good luck
March 8th, 2010 at 1:45 pm
Carleric –
You say, “some of the extreme silliness in February led me to my current positions”.
So we had “extreme” silliness that caused you to buy in Feb, and now… in <1month were "totally disconnected from reality" on the upside?
Take a deep breath. Slow and steady.
March 8th, 2010 at 2:04 pm
Remember how long the insanity in internet stocks and housing lasted – Is it not out of the question then, that the stock market today could not only remain over valued for quite some time – but spend the next year or so pushing new highs?
March 8th, 2010 at 2:24 pm
a VIX = 17.xx leads this observer that Mr. Retail doesn’t believe Mr. Market. Belief is not akin to apathy or dislike.
P.S. – I breathe just fine, thank you.
March 8th, 2010 at 3:22 pm
I am like some others who believe this current SP500 price is actually a recovery from oversold levels back 1 year ago. With that said, we are still subject to substantial corrections, not at all like what drove us to March 09 lows. 10-12% or less. That’s not enough to rock the boat with the few folks who keep big $$$ in equity funds in their 401k’s.
This price is probably the real “market” or as close to one as we know these days. It probably IS driven largely by huge positions computerizing all their trades. But it’s what we have today. PLace your bets on this market carefully.
March 8th, 2010 at 10:20 pm
Not all the time, the majority or the consensus opinion is contradictory, but could very well be right in some of these ‘odd’ times!