The Census Bureau won’t start hiring in large quantities until they know how many door-knockers they need. And they won’t know that until they see how many people fill out the forms and send them in. If everybody sends in the form, then they don’t need to hire hardly anybody. But that won’t happen. There will be a lot of hiring. The forms are supposed to arrive in our mailboxes sometime this month. The door-knockers probably won’t hit the streets in size for a couple more months.

Matt

Oh wait. You mean getting back to 6% unemployment requires spending at 2006 levels? Well, no worries. We’ll just mandate that every business must hire people so that we’ll all have money to spend to grow the economy. While we’re at it, let’s raise the minimum wage so we can save AND spend. That way we can restock the country’s depleted capital stores, too.

Everything’s gonna be alright. But whatever you do, don’t look down.

I’m guessing that, legally, it wouldn’t be a good idea for an employer to withhold more federal tax than is specified in the IRS’s tax tables. However, Congress did tinker with the tax tables this year such that more poor people are having tax withheld. The Treasury Department has not mentioned how much this might increase withholdings. The Congressional Budget Office hasn’t mentioned it either, so I’m assuming that it isn’t a large amount.

The Obama Administration is also cracking down on contractors who don’t have taxes withheld. This also does not seem to big enough to provide a noticeable jolt to the data. The New York Times has an article about it here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/18/business/18workers.html?em=&pagewanted=all

Matt

What an eyeview!

My guess it that you’ve either considered this or that it wouldn’t have much impact, but just thought I’d throw it out there.

These are withholding taxes, and are not effected by things like capital-gains tax cuts, etc. I think it’s pretty obvious that the two plunges on the chart in 2001 and 2008 were the result of millions of jobs being lost.

Matt

Another question: If a bubble created the increase in withholding revenues, did the last decade actually have any positive outcomes?? It appears we’re moving into a period of growth, but is it real or memorex?

The most recent data is, in fact, strengthening. If you compare Friday, Monday, and Tuesday, to the corresponding three days from last year, you will see that withholdings are up $1.144 billion. That’s the raw data. The actually data is likely stronger since there is a withholding tax credit in effect now.

I don’t see any miracles happening, but the cycle shows distinctive signs of turning upward.

Matt