Wednesday Reads
By Barry Ritholtz - March 10th, 2010, 5:00PM
Some eclectic items worth spending precious time with this afternoon:
• 10 Years After: A Look Back at the Dotcom Boom and Bust (Wired)
• When Bubble Burst: Companies Won, Investors Lost (WSJ)
• Martin Wolf: The eurozone crisis is now a nightmare for Germany (FT)
• Unemployment Rates, by State: Most Regions Added Jobs in January (Real Time Economics)
• SEC Economist Leaving Amid Short-Sale Rules Conflict (BusinessWeek)
• Why Won’t Robert Rubin Go Away? (Dean Baker)
• INSIDE MAN: SIMON JOHNSON on HENRY PAULSON’S MISLEADING, SELF-JUSTIFYING MEMOIR (The Atlantic)
• The future of intense winter storms (Weather Underground)
• Bloody brilliant: Bird & Fortune on Maritime Disasters and Environmental Concerns (Video)
What are you ingesting?
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March 10th, 2010 at 5:17 pm
I found this interesting: “Visualising the internet” http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/8552410.stm part of BBC’s “Superpower: exploring the extraordinary power of the internet” http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/specialreports/superpower.shtml
Of course, I would not be surprised if BR has already highlighted this. I’m becoming comfortably behind the times.
March 10th, 2010 at 5:23 pm
Barry -
Consider writing up something on the “Positives” of the housing bubble burst. Its funny that no one wants to talk about how “low housing prices” are a pretty awsome thing once the burst pain is over. This should really amp disposable income, small business investment, and equity investment. It seems logical that the positives from “MEW” would be offset in consumption space by the additional mis-over-investment in real-estate, construction, and those “saving” to buy pricey homes.
Ironically (when you’re feeling the pain) “overinvestment” in real-estate is a sign of dramatic wealth.
March 10th, 2010 at 5:53 pm
TIME
Is There Too Much Worry About the Debt?
By Zachary Karabel
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1969745,00.html#ixzz0hoiKdaWY
Proof that the editors of TIME will let a blithering idiot write an article for them.
March 10th, 2010 at 5:59 pm
[...] (HT: Ritholtz.) [...]
March 10th, 2010 at 6:26 pm
In yet another example of government overstepping its bounds, the Obama administration is preparing to ban fishing in coastal areas around the country, as well as the Great Lakes and other inland water resources:
This announcement comes at the time when the situation supposedly still is “fluid” and the Interagency Ocean Policy Task Force still hasn’t issued its final report on zoning uses of these waters.
That’s a disappointment, but not really a surprise for fishing industry insiders who have negotiated for months with officials at the Council on Environmental Quality and bureaucrats on the task force. These angling advocates have come to suspect that public input into the process was a charade from the beginning.
“When the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and International Fund for Animal Welfare (IFAW) completed their successful campaign to convince the Ontario government to end one of the best scientifically managed big game hunts in North America (spring bear), the results of their agenda had severe economic impacts on small family businesses and the tourism economy of communities across northern and central Ontario,” said Phil Morlock, director of environmental affairs for Shimano.
“Now we see NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the administration planning the future of recreational fishing access in America based on a similar agenda of these same groups and other Big Green anti-use organizations, through an Executive Order by the President. The current U.S. direction with fishing is a direct parallel to what happened in Canada with hunting: The negative economic impacts on hard working American families and small businesses are being ignored.
http://deadlinelive.info/2010/03/10/food-security-threat-goverment-set-to-ban-public-fishing-individual-food-production/
~~
just a reminder, the ‘Greens’ are ‘Watermelons’
~~
“…The Congress Elementary School District claims that past efforts by these residents to obtain documents such as minutes of board meetings and spending reports amount to harassment that should not have to be tolerated.
But Jean Warren, one of the four defendants named in the lawsuit filed January 28, 2010, said the complaint is an illegal attempt to silence citizens who have questioned the district’s policies and spending practices.
“The whole thing is based on trying to shut us down so that nobody has any rights,” Warren said. “Just because you live in a small area does not mean you don’t have rights. Everything I believe about the Constitution and what it means to be a citizen of the USA is being shot down.”
The school district has a history of violating state laws mandating government transparency, according to investigations dating to 2002 done by the Arizona attorney general and state ombudsman. In 2002 and again in 2007, the district was found to be in violation of the state’s open meeting law by the Attorney General’s Office. In June 2009, the state ombudsman’s office admonished the district for its slow response to public records requests…”
http://www.goldwaterinstitute.org/article/4506
~~
cognos,
maybe you could do us favor..explain, if you would, how to be a good Slave to the status quo..
March 10th, 2010 at 6:53 pm
With a hat tip to Thor:
http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/why-we-are-headed-depression
March 10th, 2010 at 7:21 pm
More of that next shoe …
Survived Recession? Get Set for Higher State, Local Taxes
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35800359
A rational comparison ?
Welcome to the United States of Iceland
http://money.cnn.com/2010/03/10/news/international/iceland_debt.fortune/index.htm
March 10th, 2010 at 7:39 pm
“Yves Smith For Dummies”
http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/post/439576967/yves-smith-for-dummies
March 10th, 2010 at 7:57 pm
Mannwich:
The video from your link of William Black is what I have been saying for about the same amount of time. (If you don’t believe me, you can check out what I wrote on my blog all those months / years ago.) In fact, I also have said that we were headed for another Great Depression.
Then there are the memories of conversations I had with VPs of major banks that I remembered having. At the time, you don’t really think much of them — until the crisis hit. Then I realized just how significant they were.
BTW: Where has Thor been? I haven’t seen a post from him in quite a while.
March 10th, 2010 at 8:09 pm
Mark E Hoffer Says:
March 10th, 2010 at 6:26 pm
In yet another example of government overstepping its bounds, the Obama administration is preparing to ban fishing in coastal areas around the country, as well as the Great Lakes and other inland water resources:
SKIP
“Now we see NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the administration planning the future of recreational fishing access in America based on a similar agenda of these same groups and other Big Green anti-use organizations, through an Executive Order by the President. The current U.S. direction with fishing is a direct parallel to what happened in Canada with hunting: The negative economic impacts on hard working American families and small businesses are being ignored.
http://deadlinelive.info/2010/03/10/food-security-threat-goverment-set-to-ban-public-fishing-individual-food-production/
——-
MEH…
I guess you’ve not heard of “OVERFISHING” and Mercury Laden Waters that there are “cautions” out there bcause of both?
To put this on the Obama Administration when in fact it’s a HEALTH and ECOLOGICAL Problem seems disingenuous.
March 10th, 2010 at 8:20 pm
TakBak,
see, from yesterday..
“The Obama administration will accept no more public input for a federal strategy that could prohibit U.S. citizens from fishing the nation’s oceans, coastal areas, Great Lakes, and even inland waters.
This announcement comes at the time when the situation supposedly still is “fluid” and the Interagency Ocean Policy Task Force still hasn’t issued its final report on zoning uses of these waters.
That’s a disappointment, but not really a surprise for fishing industry insiders who have negotiated for months with officials at the Council on Environmental Quality and bureaucrats on the task force. These angling advocates have come to suspect that public input into the process was a charade from the beginning…
http://sports.espn.go.com/outdoors/saltwater/news/story?id=4975762
public input into the process was a charade from the beginning…
this: “public input into the process was a charade from the beginning…”, no matter (D), or (R), is the prob.
and, now, that 44 is atop the Executive Branch, I hardly think ‘disingenuous’ is applicable..
March 10th, 2010 at 8:21 pm
A Good Read: Yves at “Naked Capitalism” puts it out there in Plain Speak!
——-
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
The Empire Continues to Strike Back: Team Obama Propaganda Campaign Reaches Fever Pitch
I’ve seldom seen so much rubbish written by people who ought to know better in a single day. Many able people have heaped the scorn and incredulity on three articles, one a piece on Rahm Emanuel slotted to run in the Sunday New York Times Magazine, another an artfully packed laudatory piece on Timothy Geithner by John Cassidy in the New Yorker and a more even handed looking one (I stress “looking”) in the Atlantic.
-snip-
Why were there no inquiries into how the firms that needed bailouts got themselves into a mess? This was an obvious and comparatively easy avenue of inquiry which would make a great deal of useful background accessible and identified issues for further examination. For instance, after the rescue of UBS, the Swiss Federal Banking Commission required UBS to provide an extensive report of what went wrong, and also had the bank make considerable portions of that information public, via a special report to its shareholders. Yet no US firm has been asked to make any explanation of how it managed its affairs so badly as to require extensive public support to keep from failing.
The choice here was obvious. A refusal to investigate was tantamount to a refusal to reform. A good understanding of what had happened was essential, not merely to develop sound new rules, but also to keep the industry from muddying the waters, which would be easy to do, given how complex and opaque many of the products are
More compelling evidence of the Administration’s lack of interest in reining in the money-changers came via Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s first presentation on his reform plan, which was more accurately a plan to have a plan. It was widely criticized for its sketchiness, but most observers missed the true significance. Had the Obama transition team done any serious thinking about the financial crisis? Obviously not, because you don’t need to think too hard if the game plan is to go back to business as usual to the extent possible. Geither’s presentation came nearly three weeks after Obama was sworn in, and all its initiatives were Bush/Paulson wine in new bottles: a new go at the failed idea of having the government overpay for bad bank assets; “stress tests” to put more discipline around the process of handing out TARP funds to the needy; and a mortgage modification program which pretended to be able to square the circle of saving borrowers without taking on investors in mortgage securitizations.
Geithner’s not-much-of-a-plan exemplified the second tool in the Obama campaign to sell doing as little as possible to the financiers: the Theory of Positive Thinking.
More at…..
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/03/the-empire-continues-to-strike-back-team-obama-propaganda-campaign-reaches-fever-pitch.html
March 10th, 2010 at 8:40 pm
BR: That’s not Bird and Fortune. These guys are Aussies.
March 10th, 2010 at 9:01 pm
Mark E Hoffer:
That guy at ESPN doesn’t know what he’s talking about. He’s another right-wing shill looking to misinform.
March 10th, 2010 at 9:21 pm
Hoffer fell for it hook, line and sinker. Of course the right doesn’t have to play these types very hard. They bite at anything.
http://mediamatters.org/research/201003100014
Like the supposed gun bans and internment camps Obama is setting up in the desert, you will never quite see this come to pass.
March 10th, 2010 at 9:29 pm
Mark E Hoffer Says:
March 10th, 2010 at 8:20 pm
TakBak,
see, from yesterday..
“The Obama administration will accept no more public input for a federal strategy that could prohibit U.S. citizens from fishing the nation’s oceans, coastal areas, Great Lakes, and even inland waters.
and, now, that 44 is atop the Executive Branch, I hardly think ‘disingenuous’ is applicable..
—————————-
Well…on those two points we certainly could have agreement. Obama promised “transparency” and now that he’s “44″ ….he seems to be singing a different tune. But, that doesn’t take away from the fact that the “Fisherman” want to fish until the lakes and oceans are bare of anything but water and the Environmentalists have been working on “Overfishing Internationally and Locally for years…and the Mercury in our fish has been around for around 20 years and growing more lately as the testing get’s more comprehensive.
So…Obama see’s it as a “done deal” that action must be taken and doesn’t want to hear anything from the fishermen. Well who cares what he does on this if he stomps on fisherman…the evidence is there that something has to be done to allow for replenishment of overfished international waters and to clean up the pollution in our national waters. What Obama needs to do is to give the local Shrimp Fisherman a break in price so that we can buy home fished shrimp instead of starving out our Coastal Fisherman who are competing with the Taiwanese/Vietnamese and other Shrimp Farms from Asia who are selling cheap to us in stores and restaurants while our local can’t even scrape by.
It’s a big issue and I can see how there would be anger about it. But, Obama doesn’t really like to listen to the “little people.” It’s the big interests that make up his mind. I’m imagining it’s the Reverend Moon’s Fishing interests he’s listening to who are howling at the cuts and he’s tuned out the Shrimpers from Gulf and South Atlantic Coasts (SC/GA/FLA/LA) over their issues with Shrimp prices in the US being at a disadvantage. But, if the Moonies are angry with him…he might just have to do one of his famous “flip/flops.” Ya’ Think? I don’t really think this issue is about the guy with his boat in the river doing some local catches that Obama is going to penalize. That would be too simple for all the publicity.
March 10th, 2010 at 9:29 pm
CV & the 13th,
that’s a nice declaratory, care to come with some add’l intel?
here’s another perspective, you know, from a Trade Group..
http://blog.tradeonlytoday.com/dealer_outlook/index.php/?p=293#more-293
March 10th, 2010 at 10:08 pm
inventory rebuild 2009
http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/03/explaining-inventory-rebuild.html
March 10th, 2010 at 10:08 pm
CFPA survey of business economists?
http://baselinescenario.com/2010/03/10/business-economists-on-the-cfpa/
March 10th, 2010 at 10:09 pm
volker rules?
http://baselinescenario.com/2010/03/10/the-volcker-principles-move-closer-to-practice/
March 10th, 2010 at 10:10 pm
the randian maestro to testify?
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/03/greenspan-to-testify-before-financial.html
March 10th, 2010 at 10:17 pm
MEH:
We’ve got some major fishery problems. Cod, for instance. We’d be really smart to start husbanding our natural food and wildlife resources — especially in costal areas and estuaries. Giving coastal fish a break from recreational and industrial fishing for a while would be a great start. So would actually bearing the cost of cleaning up our waterways.
Male smallmouth bass in the Potomac watershed have been developing eggs for some time now. All indications are that a chemical component of soft plastics is to blame. Who will clean this shit up? Who will fish these waters?
The Chesapeake Bay is all but dead, yet the watermen and recreational fishermen scream bloody economic murder every time a moratorium on fishing, crabbing, or oystering is mentioned. Two of the staple wild animal resources of the mid-Atlantic fishery — horseshoe crab and menhaden — have recently crashed.
As for bear hunting, I can’t personally see why anyone would want to kill an animal, if not for meat or due to overpopulation of the species (whitetail deer in the mid-Atlantic), and then, only out of necessity. I shot a few animals when I was a kid, and am an expert fisherman (lapsed — the thrill is gone, and I no longer trust the waters). I have always regretted killing any animal I didn’t eat. That said, I’d no sooner eat a bear than I would a dog (and I’d eat either, in a heartbeat, if I was hungry and didn’t know when I would eat next. Short of that, bear/dog meat is not on my grocery list).
If the killing of a wild animal resource (especially a bear, and especially if that bear was a Grizzly or Polar bear) is to be done for sport, I think it only fair and sporting that the hunter be required to go head-to-head with his quarry (if he was required to use a weapon fashioned from local raw materials, I’d even pay good money to watch. Talk about your economic benefit). High-powered, high precision, sighted weapons, guides, radio-collared dogs, helicopters, ATVs and GPS tracking are for pussies.
People need to stop molesting the fucking wildlife.
Some people who comment here like to remember how long ago and how early on they realized that we had some harsh times coming in our economy (see OkieLawyer, above). I feel the same way about the environment. The 20th century saw the introduction of lots of man-made poisonous chemicals and waste products into the environment. Plastics, for example, in any significant quantity, have only been around for 60 or 70 years, and we’re only starting to learn what they can do to the environment. We also have urban sprawl and resource depletion on a scale our grandparents never imagined (in the ’60s they taught us that the oceans had an inexhaustible supply of food for a hungry world). The menhaden and the horseshoe crab are our canaries in the coal mine. It ain’t good.
I don’t give a damn what economic benefit a person or industry derives from any activity if that activity permanently degrades or destroys the ecosystem (mountain-topping for coal, for example). If money is to be made off of killing wild animal resources for blood-sport, simply because money CAN be made off it, we should make damn sure the price paid is adequate to cover all of the associated costs — long term and short. Let these freekin’ people who are being so grievously injured by limitations on their “rights” start offering photo safaris.
March 10th, 2010 at 11:34 pm
MA,
w/ 1. People need to stop molesting the fucking wildlife.
& 2. If the killing of a wild animal resource (especially a bear, and especially if that bear was a Grizzly or Polar bear) is to be done for sport, I think it only fair and sporting that the hunter be required to go head-to-head with his quarry (if he was required to use a weapon fashioned from local raw materials, I’d even pay good money to watch. Talk about your economic benefit). High-powered, high precision, sighted weapons, guides, radio-collared dogs, helicopters, ATVs and GPS tracking are for pussies.
I, seriously, agree.
and, w/ We’ve some major fishery problems.
I, totally, concur.
and, on this: “The 20th century saw the introduction of lots of man-made poisonous chemicals and waste products into the environment. Plastics, for example, in any significant quantity, have only been around for 60 or 70 years, and we’re only starting to learn what they can do to the environment. We also have urban sprawl and resource depletion on a scale our grandparents never imagined (in the ’60s they taught us that the oceans had an inexhaustible supply of food for a hungry world). The menhaden and the horseshoe crab are our canaries in the coal mine. It ain’t good.”
I, again, agree.
~~
that said, more Command & Control ‘Top-Downism’ and less conversation and education about these issues isn’t going to improve anyone’s stock(s).
We should wonder, at the minimum, why these, very same, or near-discipline-related, ‘Environmentalists’ are not talking about substitutes for these practices that our aiding the destruction of our Environment.
March 11th, 2010 at 12:40 am
I’m right here Okie! What’s the url to your blog? I’d like to read it.
Thanks for the hat tip Manny – sadly, I haven’t had time to read the whole article yet!
March 11th, 2010 at 1:32 am
ive noticed that comments on the ritholtz site has been trending downwards in numbers lately.
recommendation, delinking big picture
so long tool
March 11th, 2010 at 2:10 am
MEH, does this mean you’re against me hunting chickens with my M2HB?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Twin_M2HB_machine_gun.jpg
March 11th, 2010 at 2:13 am
MEH, the watermelon remark is a bit unfair, because it implies either deception (i.e., suggests the “red” is hidden within the “green”) or some kind of inconsistency — whereas there is neither.
Not that it’s as bad as other remarks I get…
March 11th, 2010 at 2:14 am
If decreasing comments and caustic remarks like sherm’s are any kind of indication, tomorrow we’ll probably gap down 10%.
March 11th, 2010 at 3:12 am
(Barry, nice link to the weather underground blog, love the analytical science in Dr. Master’s blog. )
Re: “What are you ingesting”
I like this article from Prof. Peter Morici of U of Maryland, who was formerly the Director of the Office of Economics at the U.S. International Trade Commission.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10698409/1/why-the-trade-deficit-matters-so-much.html
Some of Prof. Morici’s points from his “Why Trade Deficits Matter So Much” article:
- President Obama ignores the fundamental causes of trade deficit; consequently, his policies to fight the recession will deliver only a moderate recovery in 2010. …
- The trade deficit subtracts more from the demand for U.S.-made goods and services than President Obama’s stimulus package adds.
- The trade deficit is the single most important reason why the private sector has failed to add a single job since 1999.
- Subsidized manufactures from China and petroleum account for nearly the entire (trade) deficit
- … are macroeconomic and systemic problems — the overvalued dollar vis-Ã -vis the Chinese yuan and the inability of the World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund to discipline and end China’s predatory currency and trade polices.
- So far, the Obama Administration has not challenged Beijing’s most protectionist policies — large government purchases of U.S. dollars that drive down the exchange rate for the yuan, subsidize Chinese exports
———————————————————————————————————————————
If currencies were not manipulated to such a degree, beside giving our manufacturers a chance, many fewer engineering and programming jobs would be shipped off to India and China. These jobs being shipped overseas by American companies aren’t even counted as part of the trade deficit. It would be nice if our country actually fought to retain and grow jobs domestically, such as China, India, and most other countries do.
March 11th, 2010 at 5:12 am
europe is no different from anyone else when it comes to mania, corruption etc. I will say though they’ve handled this whole affair differently, they fired there bankers and figured out what happened, and our probably a bit ahead of the curve in outcomes. they know they are stuck with alot of crap and alot of worlwide crap from other soveirgn debt-holders, i’d say for them at least they have awareness
where-as crackdowns on cds might not be right at least you know when the shtfan who is in charge and it’s not the banks, they seem to have a better sense of history and a longer time frame for fixing things
france is an example, not alot of natty resources so 80% nuke for elec., now that makes logical sense
having worked for a european owned company before, i’d say they have a very different mind set in business extremely cost concious, anal retentive, and miserly and anything that is bs and fluff, an understanding with this model you bank major coin in good times and can weather the bad ones easier
March 11th, 2010 at 5:41 am
It is interesting how the recent financial crisis has caused such a wide-spread effect. The few businesses that planned for such a case are thriving in this market. I have been reading about scenario planning and it fascinates me. I remember reading about Shell Oil being the pioneers, thinking about specific trends that could affect their business on a global basis. It is a really interesting approach to planning out future events. The scenarios may not occur but they are still worth planning for. Companies do budgets, and they are never right but the process yields interesting results.
For some interesting thoughts on what might happen in the future I recommend this article:
http://triangle.bizjournals.com/triangle/prnewswire/press_releases/national/California/2010/03/03/PH64018
March 11th, 2010 at 6:36 am
wunsa-
re: ‘Greens’ y ‘Watermelons’, see: http://www.gp.org/platform/2004/
‘Greens’=Environmentalists is a, rather, new phenomenon..
though, most of today’s ‘Enviros’ are, merely, ‘joiners’–brainwashed by the latest green-washing, hardly, are they ‘Evergreens’..
see: http://www.greenwashingindex.com/
http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=green-washing
for starters..
and, if you like ‘Economic field-experiments’, ask the next Enviro, you run into: “What’s you take on Industrial Hemp?”
http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=Industrial+Hemp
likely, they’ll know more about Jatropha..
March 11th, 2010 at 6:42 am
Welcome to the Permanent Recession – Food and Transportation Prices Rising
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6268
March 11th, 2010 at 8:28 am
I’m right here Okie! What’s the url to your blog? I’d like to read it.
Satellite Sky
Here are more relevant posts to the discussion Fraud posts
I haven’t written anything there in two years. So the information I have there is old. Still relevant, but old.
I wanted to jump in yesterday to the unemployment thread, but it was already too long by the time I saw it.
March 11th, 2010 at 8:36 am
What credit-card payoff? Consumers are dumping debt
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/write-offs-are-driving-decline-in-credit-card-debt-2010-03-09?siteid=YAHOOB
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — Credit-card debt has been falling for 16 straight months but consumers aren’t paying off their financial obligations as much you might think. Instead, they’re walking away from the debt, forcing credit-card issuers to write off as much as 90% of that reported drop, according to a new report by CardHub.com.
March 11th, 2010 at 1:44 pm
Will check it out Okie – thanks!