Well, Not Yet, Anyway
By Invictus - March 25th, 2010, 5:00PM
Cramer, late last week (prior to its passage), on health care reform:
First, it is the single biggest impediment to the stock market going higher.
As I write this (late Thursday morning), the market (S&P500) has tacked on ~1.3% so far this week, with healthcare, pharma, etc. — all the companies Obamacare was going to kill — chugging right along (I note a new 52-wk high on BMY).
Might it be:
A) That the market — forward-looking beast that it is — had already priced in health care reform?
B) That healthcare reform is not the dire economy-killer many made it out to be?
C) That Cramer is still the best contrary indicator in the history of mankind?
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March 25th, 2010 at 5:28 pm
D) All of the above. =)
March 25th, 2010 at 5:32 pm
or D) The people that Cramer is talking to use their political opinions to create their market evaluations, which is only valid if their political opinions are shared by most of the participants in the market.
March 25th, 2010 at 5:38 pm
I saw (but now cant find) Cramer’s Mea Culpa
Anyone have a link for that ?
March 25th, 2010 at 5:43 pm
Stock market is function of momentum over short term. I don’t think many people know what health care will do to the country or stock market. There are too many moving parts to get that prediction right.
Next quarter earnings will be good and consumers are still spending – what else do you need for the stock market? How many people calculate 10 year future earnings to calculate value.
A) Market is not that smart, in case of healthcare impact
B) No proof one way or other – so market ignores its impact for now
C) Cramer shoots too many bullets and hence he is not any indicator (noise indicator)
March 25th, 2010 at 5:49 pm
Why is this such bad news for business? For decades now businesses have been choking on rapidly increasing insurance / health care costs, why weren’t they the first in line calling for fixing the system?
Also, this plan that just passed is almost identical to the plan the Republicans proposed in response to the Clinton plan in the ’90s. If it had been implemented then, wouldn’t the pundits have insisted that the stock market would rally as a result?
March 25th, 2010 at 5:51 pm
@BR
I saw it somewhere, too. You can’t put the toothpaste back in the tube, especially when his minions hang on his every Boo-Yah.
March 25th, 2010 at 6:01 pm
Cramer is a buffoon.
March 25th, 2010 at 6:31 pm
Yeah, but he’s got Tortoise Cam. Sa-there!
http://cache.dealbreaker.com/uploads/2010/03/Picture-91.png
Here is
March 25th, 2010 at 6:53 pm
Is Cramer an absolute scum bag? Yes. But people rarely ever criticize him for the right things. To date, the Bear Stearns thing has received the most attention because of the Daily Show. But bad predictions like that and the health care bill in and of themselves aren’t the problem. Everyone makes bad predictions. The problem is that Cramer love…….love…….loves to say that he “always” owns up to his mistakes. He likes to create the impression that he is a straight shooter and overall he is a value adder. The truth is that he does not add value overall and in willfully misleads his audience all the time. The greatest example of this ever is the following Cramer quote: “Was there anyone out there who more loudly announced this credit crisis before it happened than I did?” This is of course a bunch of garbage. Cramer was clinging to the brokerage stocks and proclaiming subprime to be contained until the bitter end. The more correct quote is one by a former Cramer colleague David Merkel: “It’s pretty well established that his track record as a pundit is poor. He does say some valuable things, but there’s a ton of noise around his statements, making it impossible for any novice to find the good bits.” That’s the great, great secret — that Cramer is in fact overall not a value adder. That his overall record is poor. That he is in fact a rather mediocre talent. What I can’t understand is why someone like Doug Kass (who is in his own a way an annoyingly pedantic creep) loves to gush over Cramer and sympathize with what a tough job Cramer has chiming in on such a variety of topics (as if Cramer is being tasked with it and not being paid millions for doing it). It is very damaging in terms of getting the truth out about Cramer because Kass has real credibility and a good record. The problem I think is that Kass really loves have a public perch and the theStreet.com from which he can spout his “variant view”. It’s probably also the reason why he kisses Kudlow’s butt too. Oh, and one last thing: In addition to his rabid opposition to Reg FD, Cramer has been dissing Volcker right and left —– so basically Cramer likes to position himself as a friend of Joe investor even as he tries with all his might to help out the wolves on Wall Street. Cramer is one of the most dishonest and despicable people in the country.
March 25th, 2010 at 6:55 pm
C !
http://seekingalpha.com/article/11461-can-you-make-money-from-jim-cramer-s-picks
March 25th, 2010 at 7:06 pm
beware the broken clock.
March 25th, 2010 at 7:07 pm
D) Health care Reform is actually a plus* for health care providers, insurers, big pharma etc.
*millions more customers, restrictions on cheap Canadian drugs, elimination of smaller players etc.
*
March 25th, 2010 at 7:14 pm
Doug Kass, 3/16/2010: “I wanted to extend heartfelt congratulations on Jim “El Capitan” Cramer’s fifth anniversary of “Mad Money” on CNBC this evening….Jim manages to pull it off with a remarkable work ethic and a vast reservoir of investment knowledge. What a run, and what a great guy.”
March 25th, 2010 at 7:23 pm
Beware the ides of Cramer
March 25th, 2010 at 7:48 pm
Beating up on Cramer is sooooo 2008.
As I read the tape, health care “reform” is bullish for drug makers (more customers from medicaid/medicare), unclear on the insurers ( pre-existing clause vs. mandated coverage not clear the costs there) – and bearish for families over 250k in income. The end. Not really reform. The mandates might have teeth or not, we’ll see….
Political victory for the left. Best case scenario for the right, given what might have been done with a supermajority in the senate…
disclosure: repuglican
March 25th, 2010 at 7:58 pm
Cramer has been wildly bullish since March of 2009. He didn’t say that health care reform will bring the market down right now. He simply stated that at this time it is the single biggest impediment. The problem with Cramer is that he says many things, some of which, independently, can be percieved as leaning bearish or bullish. If you put everything he says together, you get a better idea of which way he is leaning. Everything i’ve read recently suggests he remains wildly bullish.
March 25th, 2010 at 8:15 pm
Well, here’s a couple of push backs…but I listened to Cramer after he made his “audascious” comment and his “track back” was to cover it over for his “BOO YA, JIM!” crowd and say that “for a time the market crashed after the announcement…and aren’t you glad I told you All! (I heard that but don’t have the video from MSNBC…(took too long to search). However here are a couple of posts about this:
BTW…if anyone heard Cramer’s opening after HCR passed it was a complete “pass over” and not a “Mea Culpa. But these two sites do mention a bit about the whole thing.
————-
Dow finishes up following health care vote — paging Jim Cramer
March 22, 2010 4:36 pm ET by Brian Frederick
Last Thursday, Larry Kudlow hosted Jim Cramer and the two discussed the effects of health care reform on the stock market:
KUDLOW: You are saying that Obamacare will topple the stock market. This is a huge issue. Let me get your first take.
CRAMER: It is the single biggest impediment to the stock market going higher. And a lot of this has to do with what’s not being talked about with how it’s going to be paid. And also to what it would do to small business formation. This bill is a disaster for both.
Well, on the first day following Sunday’s historic vote in the House effectively passing health care reform, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 43.91 points (0.41%).
Of course, Cramer may have been referring to the long-term effects of the bill on the stock market, rather than “knee-jerk” reactions to the vote. After all, Cramer has already established he isn’t any good at predicting “knee-jerk reactions.”
More of the READ at…….
http://mediamatters.org/blog/201003220068
and……..
Cramer Versus Cramer Again
Posted by Zandar
I laughed, I cried, it was better than “Cats”.
Cramer during tonight’s show offered a mea culpa to viewers: Despite the horrible effect he thought health-care reform was going to have on stocks, all the major indexes have held up since the bill passed on Sunday. In fact, barring today’s declines – and he didn’t think they were linked to health care – the market dipped for only about 20 minutes after Monday’s opening bell, then continued its bullish move upward.
Possibly even worse, Mad Money viewers who took Cramer’s advice missed a chance to buy that dip. He’d fully expected a pullback to follow the House’s yea vote, giving viewers a great entry point on any number of stocks. But that window of opportunity closed too quickly for most people. And investors who took profits before the vote never got the chance to get back in.
Jim Cramer wrong? Gosh, that NEVER happens. You know, except for all the times he’s been laughably wrong about mostly everything over the last three years. Housing market bottomed out in July 2009, remember that? Dow 15,000, remember that? No CRE meltdown, remember that? Banks are stable, remember that? It’s not like Cramer’s side gig at TheStreet.com is being investigated, right?
So what happened? Here are his 10 reasons why he missed the health-care call:
Allow me to save you some time.
1. Jim Cramer doesn’t know a goddamn thing about economics, but he’s a hell of a scam artist.
MUCH MORE AT…….
http://zandarvts.blogspot.com/
March 25th, 2010 at 8:21 pm
OH! OH! I know this one! It’s (D) – all of the above.
Cramer. Such a joke.
March 25th, 2010 at 8:26 pm
Sorry…Proper Link about my Second Link is this:
http://zandarvts.blogspot.com/2010/03/cramer-versus-cramer-again.html
I didn’t want anyone to think I was promoting someone’s blog. But, I failed to hit the article “Subject Line” and give the correct link.
March 25th, 2010 at 8:41 pm
Doug Kass is a great contrary indicator too…that tool told everyone to sell out of the market nearly 2000 points ago….he’s a broken clock.
March 25th, 2010 at 8:51 pm
None of the above.
Healthcare reform is the best thing for stocks in a while.
Look at how much money it sucks out of 30 million more citizens, or Uncle Stupid. Either way there’s a lot more money in play.
March 25th, 2010 at 8:52 pm
(admin note – I changed my login slightly to be more descriptive)
I know this view isn’t popular here, and that this isn’t a populist view, but I like Cramer and really respect him for what he does. Why:
1) What he does takes guts, putting everything out in front of people. The calls he makes, and information
he supplies, is publicly viewable for all to see, both the good and the bad. I really respect this.
2) He does his best to own up to the bad. I very seldom see others do this. I thought his wearing of the “hair”
shirt for the first five minutes of self-flagellation on his show last night for his incorrect call on the short
term effect of passing the health bill was extraordinary.
3) His information, ideas, and calls provide a great basis to start your homework/research on a stock or stock area.
And it provides a way to keep up with the constantly changing information in the market.
4) His information, ideas, and calls are generally pretty good. Not perfect by a long shot, but far better than
anyone else who is anywhere as so public.
I think one problem that people have with him is that they want everything spoon fed to them. Listen to a few stock picks and get rich. It doesn’t work that way, you have to do your own homework and research. It isn’t easy, most people don’t even know the basics or are willing to do the work to understand this stuff. Very few people understand what a typical P/E ratio is for a market area. Or when P/E/Growth is a better metric to use for a company. Or when forward P/E is a better metric to use. Or how to read a balance sheet – when a balance sheet of a company is beautiful, or when it’s having serious problems given the company’s future expected cash flow. Or do the homework of actually listening to a company’s quarterly conference call. Or how to really diversify between sectors. Very few people understand this stuff and actually do the work to figure it out.
No one holds a gun to your head and says buy these specific stocks, everyone needs to take responsibility for their own decisions and actions. Cramer provides an excellent basis to start on the work one needs to do to figure this stuff out.
March 25th, 2010 at 9:05 pm
alfred e Says:
March 25th, 2010 at 8:51 pm
None of the above.
Healthcare reform is the best thing for stocks in a while
Look at how much money it sucks out of 30 million more citizens, or Uncle Stupid. Either way there’s a lot more money in play.
—————-
As an advocate for “Single Payer-Medicare Buy In” Lefty who is devastated by this bill and the deal made with “Big Pharma” and “Lobbyists” ….I would agree…
BUT….the post is about Cramer shilling for NO Health Care Bill and his Prediction about how the “MARKET” would REACT….so he was WRONG in blathering about this to his “BooYah! Jim” crowd. That’s what this post from BR was about, correct?!
March 25th, 2010 at 9:18 pm
The Healthcare Corporatocracy does very nicely from Obamacare. The concessions made were insignificant in relation to the addition volume at obscene margins in the US. This is why, you may recall, that Big Pharma spent Millions in SUPPORT of Obamacare. Now, why would they do that?
On the other hand, the glee of Corporate Healthcare and the positive response of the equities does not suggest that Obamacare is going to reduce costs now does it? The main reason for this, as discussed recently in a separate thread, is quite simply that Obamacare does not address the primaary causes of cost escalation. Plus ca change?
March 25th, 2010 at 9:20 pm
……….So Cramer may be able to claim that he was right but a tad early. What else is new?!!
March 25th, 2010 at 9:23 pm
No discussion of Cramer is complete without invoking this classic — in February 2007 — about what a screaming buy Countrywide Financial was.
March 25th, 2010 at 9:39 pm
philipat: The current bill is not what Obama originally proposed. His original notion was to address both coverage (via mandatory insurance, etc.) and cost (via a public option). but the latter didn’t have enough support. so what was Obama supposed to do, drop the coverage side too? hey, he floated the single payer idea which would have allowed the Feds to really negotiate down prices, but it was DOA. it never had a chance. do you think Obama likes the fact that a doctor here makes $200,000 when someone just as capable in France or Australia makes $80,000? oh, and by the way —- pharma is less than 8% of health costs. branded pharma is even less. if you want to lower costs in this country, you need to do two things: (1) change American lifestyles and attitudes, e.g. exercise, diabetes, keeping brain-dead elderly patients on life support for years on end, etc., prescribing expensive procedures when better habits would suffice, and (2) grab the AMA by its ankles and gut it like a trout. Neither of these will happen until it is too late. (p.s. Cramer’s overall track record is awful, and that’s a demonstrable fact)
March 25th, 2010 at 9:58 pm
A: healthcare companies wrote the bill.
B: it isn’t complete and will be years for the full intended effects to be in place.
C: therefore, if it’s not effecting the next two quarters, it’s past tense by mkt standards.
D: all problems have to be imminent to matter. “kick it down the road” means doesn’t effect this years bonus.
March 25th, 2010 at 10:10 pm
D: The U.S. taxpayer will take the hit, not the healthcare industry.
March 25th, 2010 at 10:42 pm
I will fight the GOP lawsuits to stop paying veterans their health care.
When this lawsuit “wins’ – just like their lawsuit that ends ALL gov’t restrictions on election spending (so ANYONE can buy political adds, including Iranians, Venezuelan and Cuban Anti-Americans , the North Korean army, labor unions etc…) where anybody can spend any amount… the “philosophy” of ending gov’t health care will screw our veterans, old people, etc.
I ‘m going to fight the nut jobs in the GOP until they stop trying to end veteran’s health care. You keep on bowing to the GOP media might, not me.
March 25th, 2010 at 10:46 pm
Daily headlines are hilarious. “Market drops on housing numbers.” “Stocks climb on Bernanke comments.”
Might as well say “Dow jumps after quick checkout at Target” or “Equities take a breather following all-nighter with co-worker.” Let The Onion write the headlines — we’ll do no worse as a result.
Occasionally there’s a reasonable explanation in a headline number or global event. Just as often it’s grasping at straws, which is why the “explanations” from Cramer (and most pundits) are so dangerous.
March 26th, 2010 at 1:10 am
Since my name has been mentioned, here is one thing I wrote recently about TSCM and Jim Cramer:
Cramer gave me my start in writing, so I have mixed feelings. I appreciate what he did for me.
TSCM has never been a great investment, look at the negative retained earnings. My suspicion is that their only profitable product is RealMoney, which I used to write for. TSCM’s merits as an investment is a somewhat separable issue from Cramer, though… he *is* the brand.
What I find more difficult is the proffering of rapid and reactionary opinions. Investment is best when it is slow and deliberate. Cramer himself is at his best when he does that, e.g., books, and longer form non-reactionary articles (which he doesn’t do as many of as he once did).
The trouble is, in the short run, touting stock ideas brings in revenue, but it has a pretty high decay rate. And, in a sense, that is the economic conundrum of TSCM, which makes me wonder if it will ever be profitable in the long run.
But, they have done Wall Street one great favor that TSCM was never able to monetize — they trained many of the best young financial journalists we have today. The quality of financial reporting has risen over the last ten years, and one moderate part of the reason was TSCM.
March 26th, 2010 at 1:14 am
Once more, with feeling: I will always be grateful to Jim Cramer for giving me my start in investment writing. That said, I stopped writing for RealMoney because I felt I could add more value by myself, than at TSCM — the writers they were bringing on were getting more marginal, and Cramer’s abilities are better applied to longer form analysis. The shorter the time horizon gets, the worse the analysis gets. Hey, it would be true for anyone.
One final note: you might want to peruse Todd Harrison’s Memoirs of a Minyan for another perspective on Cramer, particularly chapters 6-11.
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/Todd-Harrison/6/16/2009/id/23134
March 26th, 2010 at 1:19 am
Political victory for the LEFT? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!! Oh, wait, you’re serious?
Try victory for the center to center-right. The actual left (pretty small in this country, and nearly invisible in the MSM) hates this plan. Funneling tax money to for-profit insurers doesn’t exactly ring the bell for real lefties:
http://fdlaction.firedoglake.com/2010/03/25/the-death-of-the-public-option-after-parade-of-lies-democratic-leadership-now-stands-naked/
March 26th, 2010 at 4:01 am
Cramer’s a straight John Wayne Gacy.
March 26th, 2010 at 4:09 am
I can’t believe there is a discussion going on about the quality of Cramer’s advice. It’s like discussing the potential benefits of being brutally raped. O, but wait…Cramer gave David Merkel a start in investment writing…I might have to reevaluate my opinion on this one.
March 26th, 2010 at 9:19 am
nothing will derail this bank bailout bounce until it fizzles on its own drunkeness….and i know a little about that…..then it is mar 09….healthscared or not
March 26th, 2010 at 9:56 am
A classic:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUkbdjetlY8
March 26th, 2010 at 12:22 pm
Anbody who’s used Cramer as a contrary indicator over the past 1 year must be penniless by now.
Sure he’s annoying…who isn’t when they tout the opposite side of your trade? But he’s no more annoying than the person on that site who came relatively close to calling the bottom in March’09 and has spent the last 8 months calling the top in a failed attempt to gain Guru status.
March 26th, 2010 at 5:16 pm
David Merkel: You raise the same bizarre excuse for Cramer that Doug Kass does, i.e. “gee, anybody would find it impossible to constantly add insight in such a forum and on so many topics, stocks, etc.” Huh? If a podiatrist walked into a hospital and started saying, “Brain cancer? Sure, I can treat that. I’m a brain surgery guru. Malaria? Well, I’m an expert on that too. Sickle cell anemia? Hey, I wrote the book on that, you should take my advice. Spinal fracture? Let me tell you what you need to know.” Setting aside all other issues, what would you say about that individual’s character and integrity. Would you say, “Well, gee, I mean nobody could know about all those things. He really has a tough job there. Anybody would find that near impossible.” Ummmmmm………..no. You’d say, “That guy is a big fat creep.” Also, would Cramer even be willing to acknowledge in public, in front of a camera, that his OVERALL track record as a pundit isn’t that special? No, he would not. Unfortunately, Cramer is owed a debt of gratitude by lots of people for giving them a start. For example, every day Aaron Task sits next to Henry Blodget. Blodget had essentially and correctly called Cramer an overrated, low-talent creep in a prior article. But, alas, Task was given his boost in the biz by Cramer. So when they first started Tech Talk (which would have been a great forum to air some of Cramer’s more atrocious gaffes), they basically just acknowledged their differences and set the issue aside. Personally, I agree with
Barry RitholtzInvictus’ characterization of Cramer as a “big money loser”.March 26th, 2010 at 8:28 pm
Stewart refers to him as “Creamer”…..
Thought it stuck?
March 26th, 2010 at 9:18 pm
Reading Todd Harrison’s “E-Novel” over at Minyanville he has a very heart-rending post about finding out that Cramer is “Bi-Polar” and on medication.
I think that comes through on his “Mad Money” show.
One wonders if Cramer’s Meds are really effective, though…. just saying…
March 27th, 2010 at 8:39 pm
Kass + Kramer exposed:
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/breaking-news/doug-kass-and-jim-cramer-need-to-change-the-false-ads-for-real-money/?p=8436/