Two interesting charts, from Jim Stack of Investech Research, put the current rally and past recessions into context:

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Category: Economy, Trading

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

14 Responses to “Duration of Recessions and Bull Markets”

  1. oldcodger says:

    But those are no good….we don’t have any past information on Federally funded, bank computer traded, and manipulated markets, except the current low volume “flag” model. Straight up at the start, turn right during the day, finish with a flourish and to hell with all the debt. I always wondered what a trip to Australia might be like but all I have to do is look around me at all the heads buried in the sand. They won’t know what hit’em….

  2. Mannwich says:

    Too many variables. Comparing apples to chickens.

  3. constantnormal says:

    So I guess this is going to be a doozy of a stock bubble — it had better be, if the goobermint has any hopes of unloading their AIG stock at a large enough profit to cover their/our sunk costs to date, or hold a $43B IPO for GM …

    http://www.forbes.com/2010/04/21/general-motors-debt-business-autos-gm.html

    I just hope that when they ring the 2-minute warning bell at the top, I hear it and do the right thing.

    What’s that? They don’t ring a bell at the top? Why the hell not??!!

  4. clipb says:

    just looking at one period (i was around then!), the 1974 bull run lasted about 18 months not 72 as indicated. don’t have time to run them all, but drivel is drivel and data and extractions based on it should be checked for accuracy before being posted with alacrity.

  5. forcast says:

    Bonjour Barry, bonjour a tous
    Bonnes statistiques !
    Voici un tableau complet de l’indice SP500 durant cette même période
    Désolé de vous répondre en français

    http://weinstein-forcastinvest.net/des-chiffres-a-donner-le-tournis-a-n%e2%80%99importe-quel-investisseur/

    Bonne continuation
    PS : pourrions-nous échanger nos liens de sites respectifs

    TRADUCTION:
    Hello Barry, hello to all
    Good stats!
    Here is a complete picture of the SP500 index during the same period
    Sorry to answer in French

    Bonne continuation
    PS: can we exchange our respective site links
    thank!

  6. [...]  http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/04/duration-of-recessions-and-bull-markets/ Partager [...]

  7. cognos says:

    Clipb -

    One problem is S&P vs Dow. The other issue is that most of the broad conclusions are just from the index levels… not index+divs. Divs were 5-6% in the 60s and 70s. Really changes the analysis.

  8. whodunit says:

    Looks like we going higher Barry.

    Please invite me back to the next manipulated market. this one sure IS FUN !!! LOL

  9. JustinTheSkeptic says:

    Monkey see monkey do is just about run its course. Where’s the beef? Will be the next question.

  10. Nic says:

    “put the current rally and past recessions into context”
    Does this mean you categorize this present cycle as a bull market rather than a bear market rally?

  11. Simply-Put says:

    Since we are on the topic of cycles, I believe we are in the winter cycle of the Kondratieff Wave which is the correction of a credit expansion or deflationary depression part of the cycle. It is the washing out of the debt and excess that has been building up throughout the last 30 years or so….

    http://www.howestreet.com/articles_as_pdf/2010Feb022246Winter%20V14%20I1.pdf.

    Since the FED as well as the US Government has adopted a ZERO INTEREST RATE POLICY ( ZIRP) to circumvent another Great Depression it is anyone’s guess what happens next. The wild card I believe is the appropriate actions of government to restore confidence in our financial system and in government itself. I fell people need to believe that there is a level playing field toward investing. No more gaming the system, Flash trading, Dark Pools, etc…you get the picture. There needs to be rebuilding of this country to compete against the rest of the world. As far as guessing about where the Market goes from here, I have been looking at EWJ (JAPAN) stock chart between 1998 and 2003… very Interesting…. Japan’s policy actions (FISCAL & MONETARY) seem to fit our current policy script very well.

  12. asobhani says:

    Is the purpose of these graphs to put the current bear-market rally in context such that it has another 30 months to go! Why don’t we look at the fundamentals to get a more clear picture of what’s been happening the last year! One important fact left out is the percentage increase from the March lows within the last 13 months as compared to the average gains realized in the first 13 months of the average bull market…

    Post that data and then we’ll have something more valuable to look out.

  13. No, I just thought they were interesting.

    asobhani, you might be a newbie here — I have noted in these pages many times that there are cylclical and secular bull and bear markets —

    So far, the data suggests to me this is a cyclical bull within a longer secular bear market. Comparing the two (cyclical and secular) are apples and oranges . . .