There is no change to the belief that by the end of the weekend Greece will have its debt obligations satisfied for the next 3 years with 120b euro’s of funding. Greece’s 2 yr yield is falling as a result as are yields in the other overleveraged European countries. It is now up to the Greek’s to follow thru on what will be a tough few years in terms of higher taxes and big spending cuts. Even with the upcoming bailout, their 10 yr yield is up 40 bps this week and the 2 yr is up 220 bps. US Q1 GDP is expected to rise by 3.3%, helped by an expected rise in personal consumption of 3.3%, the biggest gain since Q1 ’07. The UoM confidence # is also important to watch to see whether it confirms the bounce in Tuesday’s confidence figure or lags as has the ABC poll. The home buying tax credit expires at midnight tonight and it will be interesting to see how busy realtor offices are tomorrow.

Category: MacroNotes

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