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ECRI: The Changing Cyclical Contours of the U.S. Economy

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By Lakshman Achuthan - April 5th, 2010, 8:45AM

Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI shares his most recent economic overview:

1003-NYC No Security

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Category: Economy, Think Tank.

Comments

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

8 Responses to “ECRI: The Changing Cyclical Contours of the U.S. Economy”

  1. The Big Picture » Blog Archive » ECRI on Economic Recovery Says:
    April 5th, 2010 at 9:16 am

    [...] Disclosures « ECRI: The Changing Cyclical Contours of the U.S. Economy [...]

  2. owen b Says:
    April 5th, 2010 at 9:35 am

    Lots to digest but a couple of quick comments:

    1. The performance of short-term unemployment shown on slide four is remarkable. Do you know where ECRI gets this measure?

    2. I’m sure it’s more complicated than this, but at first glance it looks like their Long Leading Index going down would have had you short the market during it’s recent rise (page 8).

    3. I’ve heard them talk before of more frequent recessions ahead. If true then we all need to be focusing on our trading skills.

    4. The Appendix at the end about the Fed vs. the ECRI indexes is a very good but hard read. I read it twice. Hard to have faith that the Fed will be able to time things better going forward.

  3. Brad Says:
    April 5th, 2010 at 10:24 am

    This all looks well and good, but really is this just a case of Monday morning quarterbacking? I want to see the game day footage, were they this sure of themselves in summer 09? I have doubts.

    By the way, more frequent recessions is a convenient pitch, wouldn’t that forecast only help the ECRI bring in the bucks?

    ~~~

    BR: They called the recession a little late (I recall Q1 2008) and they called the reversal pretty well also — its fairly public, you can track it down online.

    Best of all, its all data driven, not based on gut or emotion

  4. JohnS133 Says:
    April 5th, 2010 at 12:43 pm

    I find the discussion on the Fed very interesting…but let me see if I can get this straight: we are in the strongest recovery since the early 1990′s!!!! I must be in some alternative reality..

  5. FrancoisT Says:
    April 6th, 2010 at 1:40 pm

    Assuming everything falls into place and their predictions come true, we still have a huge problem; all those who need to learn new skills to gain employment.

    Traditionally, we haven’t done such a stellar job in this respect. Furthermore, I think ECRI is neglecting the sorry state of our infrastructure here; just to repair what needs to be fixed, we’ll need a lot of workers. Of course, that suppose that the stoopid in DC will stop brown nosing the financiers and get capital to work for the real economy.

  6. eurostoxx Says:
    April 7th, 2010 at 8:03 am

    thanks for posting!!! great read as always

  7. The Big Picture » Blog Archive » Where Is A Spectacular Implosion Most Likely? Says:
    April 8th, 2010 at 8:31 am

    [...] had lunch earlier this week with Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI. Our offices are a block apart, and from time to time, we get together to shake our heads [...]

  8. jason in charlotte Says:
    April 9th, 2010 at 7:30 pm

    Thanks for posting. Great stuff.

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