GDP = 3.2%
Commerce Dept:
The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in state and local government spending and in residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected decelerations in private inventory investment and in exports, a downturn in residential fixed investment, and a larger decrease in state and local government spending that were partly offset by an acceleration in PCE and a deceleration in imports
Noteworthy details:
-Consumer spending rose at the fastest rate in 3 years in Q1, driving the expansion to a 3.2% annual growth rate.
-Private domestic demand was the primary engine of growth.
-Consumer spending: up 3.6% annual rate.
-Business investments in equipment and software skyrocketed 13.4%.
Final caveat: This is the preliminary estimate, and is often revised. We will get the Q1 2010 GDP second estimate on May 27, 2010, at 8:30 A.M.
>
Source:
Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2010 (Advance Estimate)
Commerce Department APRIL 30, 2010
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
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April 30th, 2010 at 8:35 am
Must have been all of those delinquent homeowner/welfare queens . . .
• Are Defaults Really Driving Retail Spending?
• More on Mortgage Delinquencies & Retail Spending
Maybe not . . .
April 30th, 2010 at 8:48 am
This is simply more proof that America’s economy is sound and well-managed and that last year’s troubles were either an aberration, a mathematical miscalculation, or an attempt to soil our reputation as a straight-dealer (because they hate us for our way of life).
The American consumer is back: Debt settled, gainfully employed (with a surplus at the end of the month!), and hungry for flat-panel TVs, granite countertops, and shiny new cars.
Is this a great country, or what?
April 30th, 2010 at 8:54 am
“Must have been all of those delinquent homeowner/welfare queens . . .”
Driving their Cadillacs to the welfare office. Of course, what the people who bandy that cliche neglect to tell you is that the Cadillac is a 15 to 20-year-old rust bucket.
April 30th, 2010 at 8:55 am
Now the question is, is the economy on a self-sustaining track? It probably is, but there are a number of headwinds such as higher gasoline prices, trade competition from a weak Euro, continued weak state and local govt spending, continued decline in new construction, the end of UC benefits for many, end to the one time surge from tax refunds. But on the plus side will be consumer confidence, a surge in business investment, pent up demand for autos and such, and job creation. Looks like a roll of the dice to me.
April 30th, 2010 at 9:08 am
The “not so good” elements of GDP report…
Real disposable personal income was unchanged in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.0 percent.
Real final sales of domestic product — GDP less change in private inventories — increased 1.6
percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent in the fourth.
Saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — was 3.1 percent in
the first quarter, compared with 3.9 percent in the fourth
April 30th, 2010 at 9:20 am
No doubt about it. Prosperity is just around the corner.
April 30th, 2010 at 9:26 am
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2254-First-Quarter-2010-GDP-Advance.html
Here’s what Denninger has to say about those numbers and he isn’t happy.
April 30th, 2010 at 9:43 am
“Aint nothing like the real thing baby!”
April 30th, 2010 at 9:53 am
You left out:
- Residential Investment (RI) declined 10.9%
- State and local governments spending decreased 3.8%
April 30th, 2010 at 9:57 am
The uptick in consumer spending is good to see I don’t believe it’s anything sustainable.
April 30th, 2010 at 10:10 am
I am still very disturbed by two things:
-High unemployment
- Continued manipulation of the housing market. I heard a homebuilder/developer this morning say that a new neighborhood that was being built was entirely being rushed through to take advantage of the 4/30 tax credit. They had built about 75% of the homes expected, and had closed most of them in time for the tax credit.
An entire housing development built just for a temporart tax credit. Not only are we a throw-away society, but we are a temporary-benefit, short-term society. Absolutely no thought is placed on anything more than 6-12 months down the road. Instant gratification.
April 30th, 2010 at 10:17 am
BR has his agenda and he’s sticking to it-
bravo BR, bravo
also- what Marcus said
April 30th, 2010 at 10:21 am
Bogus numbers, like all numbers coming out of Bureaucrats-R-Us (except the G.A.O maybe)
I keep a close eye on the malls and shop where I live, and if anything, they are emptying.
Did anybody notice how much less merchandise and choice Walmart has btw? You can actually walk down the aisles without having to loop around pallets of stuff. Smaller buggies too.
April 30th, 2010 at 10:26 am
A subdivision built just for the tax credit? Well, wasn’t that the whole point?
April 30th, 2010 at 11:08 am
How much do you want to bet GDP will be revised down… The only two truths is they never get it right the first time & they never underestimate good news.
April 30th, 2010 at 11:42 am
No one ever really seems to calls attention to the fact that the GDP number is annualized by multiplying the quarter number by 4 (i.e. .8% Q1 growth * 4). I guess 3.2% looks better than 0.8% “growth”.
April 30th, 2010 at 12:10 pm
[...] one bright spot was technology investment by business skyrocketing at 13.4%. If you put all the capital expenditures categories together, they rose but at a declining [...]
April 30th, 2010 at 12:42 pm
Interesting comment gloppie re: stores carrying fewer skus. Our local Sam’s seems to be carrying the bare minimum of perishables. What used to be pallets of bananas is now just a small end cap. Our Walmart recent went through a renovation to become a SUPER and while they clearly have more skus as a Superwalmart they seem to somehow be carrying less of the things we would ever buy.
Our malls/retail stores are actually bursting with people buying but I suspect we are not the norm due to our proximity to Canada. On a weekend 30-40% of the cars in our parking lots have Ontario license plates. The strong loonie is actually probably going to save some local gov’t jobs due to higher than expected sales tax receipts.
April 30th, 2010 at 1:31 pm
• U.S. GDP review — once again, less than meets the eye
• One amazing equity rally in the U.S., but … there are at least four nonconfirmations that is cause for pause
• Land of the rising sun? Japan just printed a slate of very constructive economic data points
• China, the golden touch? According to the World Gold Council, China is expected to double its gold consumption over the next decade
• Canada’s labour market maybe not as pristine as we all thought
• The question and answer session with BoC Governor Mark Carney during his speech before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking was very informative
• U.S. initial jobless claims — looking past the noise
• Extended unemployment benefits in the U.S. about to expire
You may access the full text of the Research Report by clicking on the link above.
April 30th, 2010 at 1:58 pm
From the BEA report:
“The change in real private inventories added 1.57 percentage points to the first-quarter change in
real GDP after adding 3.79 percentage points to the fourth-quarter change.”
April 30th, 2010 at 2:34 pm
I am not a “big fan” of the GDP measurement. I strongly prefer the CFNAI, which was recently posted (4/29/10) on this blog.
I think that looking at a range of other indicators and indices provides a much better picture of the overall situation. As well, I think it is very interesting how confidence surveys are so subdued relative to such measures as GDP and the stock market.
Here is a recent post on my blog that shows a variety of economic forecasting indices. As one can see, the picture is fairly mixed:
http://www.economicgreenfield.com/2010/04/30/updates-on-economic-indicators-4/
April 30th, 2010 at 3:24 pm
Edward Harrison doesn’t view the components as sustainable as the main driver was consumer spending
http://feeds.creditwritedowns.com/~r/creditwritedowns/~3/Lfb5WJ2lTWA/us-gdp-growth-rate-is-unsustainable-recovery-will-fade.html
He realizes that most people can’t afford flash cars like some bloggers we know :)
April 30th, 2010 at 8:49 pm
I’d be curious what impact Canadian consumers are having on spending in the US – with the dollar at par I’ve heard lots of anecdotes of people shopping in the US for cars and other big-ticket items as well as clothes. There’ s added paperwork and taxes but a lot of them still find it worth the while.
May 1st, 2010 at 7:36 pm
@Marcus Aurelius Says:
April 30th, 2010 at 8:48 am
This is simply more proof that America’s economy is sound and well-managed and that last year’s troubles were either an aberration, a mathematical miscalculation, or an attempt to soil our reputation as a straight-dealer (because they hate us for our way of life).
The American consumer is back: Debt settled, gainfully employed (with a surplus at the end of the month!), and hungry for flat-panel TVs, granite countertops, and shiny new cars.
Is this a great country, or what?
——
Yes, Marcus……counterintuitive……..Kind of Interesting…isn’t it.
Not saying there’s anything wrong with this view….but that it’s “Where We Are” these days in our Political/Economic Spectrum of experience……
Cryptic Comment.