As April starts heading into May, its time to start looking at the Seasonal — sell in May, then go away – Trade.
Here are the numbers dating back to 1928:
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via the Chart Store
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Its not October (as many people fear), it is September that’s a bitch . . .
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
"Money is power, & you ought to be reasonably ambitious to have it." —Russell H. Conwell, Temple Univ, 1877
"It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine" say the French as consumer confidence in May rose to the highest since Nov '10 as they welcome and get excited about new Pres Hollande. Also, the French 10 yr bond yield touched the lowest on record this morning. June consumer confidence in Germany held at 5.7, just .2 pts off the highest since Mar '11. To the euro bond debate which is now taking on greater rhetoric with those with high bond yields wanting them and those with low ones saying no way, ECB member...
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April 21st, 2010 at 1:03 pm
For gold fans, the sell in May theme also is pretty consistent. More accurately, it tends to peak in April, bottom in May and flounder around in a channel until about July when it usually hits its yearly low (that or August is usually the best time to buy from a seasonal perspective leading into the traditional October rally). So don’t be surprised if we get a pullback here and the MSM triumphantly places its foot on gold’s neck and declares it, once again, dead forever
April 21st, 2010 at 1:33 pm
Trying to come up with a catchy phrase. Best i can come up with is: “Sell in May, then go away but remember September, cause that’s a bitch…”
April 21st, 2010 at 1:41 pm
You often ask about what your readers think of the market and I have to say that I’m now seeing indications that we could be making a short to medium term top. This is based on price and volume in several stocks I watch very closely, price and volume in the S&P 500, an indicator I watch carefully, and the time of year (sell in May & go away).
April 21st, 2010 at 2:36 pm
With program trades apparently comprising a much larger fraction of market volume these days (readers with data to substantiate /falsify that view are invited to do so), might the “sell in May…” pattern be diminished? So far as I know, there are no vacations for computers … this of course makes the tacit assumption that the reason behind the “sell in May …” pattern is the expensive summer vacations that Wall Streeters take, returning in the fall with a pressing need to generate some cash to pay the bills …
I can easily imagine that pumping C up and down in an automated manner could be accomplished without a lot of human supervision …
April 21st, 2010 at 2:41 pm
It would be interesting to see that bar chart with the bars normalized by their contribution to the annual share trading volume (e.g., multiple each month’s bar by the ratio of the shares traded that month to the annual shares traded for that year). My guess is that the bump up in the summer months might be considerably diminished.
Looking at price changes without considering volume is unlikely to be very illuminating.
April 21st, 2010 at 3:07 pm
Merci Barry
voici d’autres graphiques :
http://weinstein-forcastinvest.net/investissement-les-periodes-propices-aux-achats-d%e2%80%99actions/
April 21st, 2010 at 3:15 pm
eh, who cares about -1% in this bull market!
April 22nd, 2010 at 5:55 am
It may be interesting to see which months have the highest standar deviation of returns, better than the average return. ??
April 22nd, 2010 at 7:27 am
[...] Chart: 80 years of 'Sell in May, Go Away' stats. Good to know. (TBP) [...]