My friend James Altucher is completely whacko:

~~~

Source:
It’s Not a ‘V’, It’s Even Better, Altucher Says: Look for New Highs by 2012
Peter Gorenstein
Yahoo Tech Ticker, May 28, 2010
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/it’s-not-a-’v'-it’s-even-better-altucher-says-look-for-new-highs-by-2012-496236.html

Category: Economy, Video

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

10 Responses to “Altucher: It’s Not a ‘V’, It’s Even Better”

  1. jonathanb says:

    “It’s better to be conventionally wrong, than unconventionally right.”

  2. Mike in Nola says:

    I agree.

  3. jaltucher says:

    Maybe I’m “wacko” but the data seems to support what I’m saying:

    - how wacky is it that ISM Manu is at 64, suggesting over 6% GDP growth for next quarter
    - Toyota sales up 27% YoY last month. Thats totally wacko!
    - Nonfarm payrolls look like a straight up “V” from the lows.
    - analysts estimate S&P earnings should be at $94 next year. They were at $89 in 2007 when market made new highs. So what should market be next year?

  4. Denis says:

    @jaltucher: sure, but considering the built-up of bad debt that is still in the system (which is extremely deflationary) and the cracks that are starting to appear in China, wouldn’t you think this looks more like a dead cat bounce?

  5. Pete from CA says:

    “analysts estimate S&P earnings should be at $94 next year. They were at $89 in 2007 when market made new highs. So what should market be next year?”

    So by this logic we expect a new high in 2011 and a new low in the spring of 2013, yes?

  6. utiliguy says:

    Commercial real estate, anyone?

  7. jameskahler says:

    @utiliguy There is simply a ton of money out there chasing commercial real estate right now. On the public side, REITs, which were already fairly conservatively levered, delevered further over the last 24 months. On the private side, massive amounts have been raised anticipating RTC v 2.0, which obviously hasn’t happened due to “pretend and extend”. So much private capital has been sitting on the sidelines that funds are returning capital (see WSJ article yesterday). On the debt and on the leasing sides, things are constructive as well, as was widely noted at this week’s ReCON convention in Las Vegas. So while I agree that–particularly if the economy sees a double dip–further stress is not out of the question, it is far from a foregone conclusion.

  8. wildebeest says:

    Altucher states that “The debate is over, it’s already been a V, now the question is, does it continue? I think it does,”

    He says people should go to the Fed and check out personal consumption expenditure, non farm payrolls, inventories, retail sales, …it is already a V.

    non farm payrolls, no V:
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&s1id=PAYEMS&s1

    inventories, no V:
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BUSINV

    retail sales, finally some movement in the last 3 months, but no V:
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/RRSFS?cid=6

    personal consumption, he gets a pass for that one:
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PCE?cid=110

    Personal consumption expenditure is the most opaque of these numbers, i.e. the monthly data is seasonally adjusted and annualized. I’m not aware of a source of raw data but if anyone knows can you please post the information source (they only have annual non-adjusted data at the FED). What has been bothering me about PCE for many months is how poorly correlated it is to retail sales and state sales taxes. It suggests that spending on items other than retail is booming. What do people think about that? Health care isn’t included in the other two data sets whereas it is included in the PCE and it has increased 10% over 2 years. Should increasing health care costs be interpreted as a sign of a recovering (V shaped) economy?

  9. wildebeest says:

    @jaltucher “Nonfarm payrolls look like a straight up “V” from the lows.”

    Incorrect. Here is the chart: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS?cid=11

    What you’ve probably seen is a first derivative of the chart. Some V shapers like to show first derivatives of data because bad data looks great.

    http://www.wildebeests.net/2010/03/28/interpreting-year-on-year-economic-data/

    http://www.wildebeests.net/2010/02/23/debunking-some-good-news-on-jobs-tax-withholding-improving/.

  10. adamj says:

    Wow, that was bad. In many cases things look “better” then they did in 2007? Then he goes on to name things that are NOT better? Embarrassing. You need to look at absolute levels not some YOY rate of change or whatever the hell your looking at. Whatever investments Formula Capital pitches I don’t want anything to do with if he is involved in their decision making process.