Europe = Marge Simpson
With the Dow off over 200 points today, the psychology of the moment is to once again blame the Europeans for the market’s woes.
The latest rumors comes supposedly from Dick Bove – Instant messages across NY trading desks are repeating rumors of a potential downgrade of France. Bove was supposedly saying that chatter about France’s Debt downgrade could be a huge negative (if it comes true). IMs such as this one: IF THIS HAPPENS, WATCH OUT! IT WOULD BE A HUGE NEGATIVE WORLD WIDE!!
Now, I have no idea if there is there is slightest truth to this. I am merely explaining what trading desks are up to. These rumors run rampant during dislocations.
However, I came across a different theory that I put much more stock in: The reason for all the problems in Europe has nothing to do with France, and everything to do with a subtle problem that goes beyond the PIIGs. It turns out that Europe, is in fact, Marge Simpson:
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But then again, here maiden name was Marjorie Bouvier — so perhaps there is a French connection after all!
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Here are the map details by specific nation:
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Hat tip Flowing Data, via Strange Maps
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May 14th, 2010 at 11:39 am
This is very clever!
May 14th, 2010 at 11:53 am
They tried to make me go to €-trash, I said “Gold, Gold, Gold”
May 14th, 2010 at 11:53 am
Now that’S OT, but does anybody know why suddenly German DAX companies are leaving the NYSE like rats a sinking ship?
May 14th, 2010 at 11:57 am
Not that I don’t think the market is going down, but… DICK BOVE?! Anyone still listening to this guy deserves to be banished from the stock market. Without even getting into his calls on LEH back in the day, he was on CNBC the day the GS lawsuit was announced telling people to buy. That was twenty points ago.
Makes sense CNBC loves him.
May 14th, 2010 at 12:38 pm
crunched:
Has anyone seen CNBC’s ratings lately? Are they still tanking?
May 14th, 2010 at 12:52 pm
crunched,
Some people still listen to Kudlow and Luskin too…
May 14th, 2010 at 12:57 pm
wow-
now that’s funny :D
May 14th, 2010 at 1:28 pm
with the Euro at 124 level, has anyone did an anylsis on where the individual currencies would be valued if the Euro is disbanned?
May 14th, 2010 at 1:42 pm
but- upon closer inspection-
Marge Simpson’s hair would be quite disheveled if all of Europe was included-
I mean- c’mon- Italy, Scandinavia and the Balkan Peninsula would make it look like Marge was out on a bender driving home in a convertible w/ hurricane force winds
May 14th, 2010 at 1:44 pm
And thank God Paul Krugman says “We’re Not Greece”: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/14/opinion/14krugman.html
Why this guy gets paid to write a column is beyond me.
“we have a clear path to economic recovery” – We do??? So all those impending tax hikes and new regulations won’t impact GDP growth or job creation? And where do interest rates go from here?
“I wish that growth were faster; still, it’s finally producing job gains” – This is almost laughable. Hey Paul, how long will it take before we replace all the jobs lost since 2008?
“and they imply a sharp fall in the budget deficit over the next few years.” – I HOPE TO HELL SO WITH A $1.5 TRILLION HIGH WATER MARK! A 50% reduction in our deficit would still be a whopping $700 Billion deficit!
“We do have a serious long-run budget problem, which will have to be resolved with a combination of health care reform and other measures, probably including a moderate rise in taxes.” – WTF? Was Krugman in a coma over the past 18 months? Didn’t the Dems pass “healthcare reform”? And isn’t everyone from the CBO on down now saying the cost estimates for HC reform were underplayed? And what’s Krugman’s idea of “moderate”. Does this guy really believe tax hikes have no impact on economic growth or job creation?
I hope all you Krugman fans clip this column and re-read it 10 years from now. We might not be Greece today, but this train is barreling down a one way track to the same outcome.
May 14th, 2010 at 1:50 pm
“with the Euro at 124 level, has anyone did an anylsis on where the individual currencies would be valued if the Euro is disbanned?”
Yes, the Greek drachma would only be a notional currency, not actually worth printing, as it would be too expensive relative to the value of the press time and paper.
The Italian lira would be printed on rolls, like toilet paper.
The Spanish pesata would only be good in all the colonies of the former Spanish Empire that Spain still controls.
Ireland will revert to using balls of peat as its medium of exchange and store of value.
Portugal will convert to Brazilian reals, in order to take advantage of the relatively prudent fiscal and monetary discipline exhibited by its former colony.
May 14th, 2010 at 2:38 pm
Two thumbs up for Curmudgeon! Too funny.
May 14th, 2010 at 3:50 pm
Barry, just to be clear, you do not agree that the bulk of the turmoil in the US Markets is the result of turmoil in Europe.
That is the message I get from your posts and your interviews on Yahoo.
If that is the case, then what is the data telling you about Europe? You’ve posted data and the Think Tank articles have conveyed important information.
Seems to me like Our problems were there problems and now there problems will soon be our problems. I don’t have the data, but it just seems if the political momentum is building to have an EU shakeout and the Euro is weakening against the dollar already, this may have several negative implications to our overal macro picture in the U.S.
Anyone remember what happened last time Europe’s economy imploded and their alliances dissolved? It wasn’t funny.
May 14th, 2010 at 3:51 pm
*Their. Sorry I hate when I do that.
May 14th, 2010 at 4:16 pm
France? Have a look at the chart for the Veolia Environnement ADR (VE). I know the Euro is under pressure, but…………….?
May 14th, 2010 at 5:02 pm
barry,
just nitpicking on a boring friday afternoon, but ‘bouvier’ is a belgium name from flanders. somehow i remember that, as one of my most favorite pets was a ‘bouvier de flanders’ (belgium herding dog). also, jackie ‘bouvier’ kennedy had flemish roots.
the decline in the euro might make a bouvier de flanders a good investment and a great friend!
May 14th, 2010 at 5:23 pm
the demise of the € has many implications for the USA & Canada
for starters, it re-establishes the greenback (and fed paper) as the go to currency, when just a few months ago everyone was dumping on it
EUR/USD 5 year chart:
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EURUSD=X&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
(Curmudgeon – that’s really good
at this point, i’d take the real over the € too)
May 15th, 2010 at 12:08 am
Ned FLANDERS is the Simpson’s sunny, yet religiously demented neighbor. Marge reads “Fretful Mother” magazine, as any security-obsessed “woman” with tall blue hair could relate to.
There was that one episode where the Brazilian money was reffered to as “so gay.”
It’s all making sense now.
May 15th, 2010 at 10:55 am
Jesus, Marg Simpson as the 4th Reich? Or how about as the Harlot of the last book of John the Devine? Been waiting to see what the common market would look like after it sheds it’s link with the romantics. All that’s needed is the benelux unification to knock the number down from 13 to 10. Fun stuff for sure, maybe Flander’s right and we out to go long on guns and Bibles?
May 17th, 2010 at 1:40 am
[...] estendano oltre i confini dei “PIIG”, e ci sarebbero voci che ipotizzano una prossima riduzione del rating della Francia, le cui finanze sarebbero meno solide di quanto ritenuto finora, indebolite anche a causa delle [...]
May 17th, 2010 at 3:02 am
[...] Europe on Friday = Marge [...]