The ISM manufacturing survey was about in line with expectations at a solid 60.4 vs the estimate of 60 and is up from 59.6 in March. It’s the first time above 60 since June ’04 but only measures the direction of change, not the degree. New Orders rose 4.2 pts to 65.7 but Backlogs fell .5 pt to 57.5. Production, which follows new orders, rose 5.8 pts to 66.9. Inventories fell back below 50 at 49.4 but after the 8 pt spike to 55.3 in March while Inventories at the customer level fell 6 pts to 33, just shy of the lowest since ’97 as lean remains the focus. The Employment component showed continued improvement, rising 3.4 pts to 58.5, the highest since Jan ’05. Exports fell .5 pt to a still strong 61. The ISM sums up the data with “overall, the recovery in manufacturing continues quite strong, and the signs are positive for continued growth” as 17 of the 18 industries surveyed reported growth. Net-net for the markets though is we’ve priced it in for now I believe.

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Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

3 Responses to “ISM mfr’g is solid but has it been priced in?”

  1. HarryWanger says:

    Seeing how the market is up about 150, I don’t believe it was “priced in.”

  2. JustinTheSkeptic says:

    It’s been priced in since last July!

  3. rootless_cosmopolitan says:

    HarryWanger,

    Your argument is flawed. Your conclusion would be logically valid only if the market never went ahead of itself. And in this case there never would have been any stock market bubble.

    All the metrics that have substance, which I know show that the market is overpriced currently (e.g., [1] and [2]). And investor sentiment is overbullish.[3]

    [1] http://www.multpl.com/
    [2] http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield/
    [3] http://www.market-harmonics.com/free-charts/sentiment/investors_intelligence.htm