NFP = +290,000
BLS:
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 290,000 in April, the unemployment rate edged up to 9.9 percent, and the labor force increased sharply, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in manufacturing, professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality. Federal government employment also rose, reflecting continued hiring
of temporary workers for Census 2010.
The 2010 April NFP was the fastest pace of job gains in four years. The +290k was the largest gain since March 2006.
I found this statement a significant change in BLS language: “Sizable employment gains occurred in” manufacturing, professional and business services, health care, and in leisure and hospitality.
Here are more of the details in the NFP data:
• Unemployed rate ticked up to 9.9% from 9.7%
• Total U3 unemployed is 15.3 million people.
• U-6 Total unemployment rose to 17.1% (another 9.2 million people).
• The Labor Pool increased substantially: plus 805,000, a gain of 0.3%. This accounts for essentially all of the unemployment gains.
• Average workweek increased by 0.1 hour to 34.1 hours.
• Average hourly earnings rose to $22.47 in April from $22.46.
• Temp workers increased 26,200.
• Revisions were positive: February revised from -14,000
to +39,000, and March was revised upwards from 162,000 to 230,000
• Manufacturers added the most workers to payrolls since August 1998.
• An influx of Census workers added 59,000, on top of the +66,000 employees last month.
• The NSA monthly data was +876k in March, and +1158k in April.
• Birth Death Adjustment was +188k
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May 7th, 2010 at 8:30 am
I am recovering from travel. Starting the day at home, and working on a few items, then off to a few meetings and errands.
I have CNBC on in the background for the Jobs data. Mark Barberra is a pissah — giving Joe Kernan repeated tweaks
May 7th, 2010 at 8:44 am
B/D + 188k, We now return you to your regular programming.
May 7th, 2010 at 8:49 am
Ironic with all the concern today about German vote to bail out Greece
On May 7, 1945, Germany signed an unconditional surrender at Allied headquarters in Rheims, France, to take effect the following day, ending the European conflict of World War II.
May 7th, 2010 at 8:53 am
Well, Kernan deserves more than tweaks. Embodies the term “idiot box.”
May 7th, 2010 at 9:06 am
Sizable employment gains + more sizable labor pool gains = no win
The reported increase in manufacturing is the first real positive sign I have seen in the jobs reports. However, I am left scratching my head wondering how many of those reported mfg. jobs are a result of B/D model creation?
May 7th, 2010 at 9:12 am
This is a bit OT but, premarket volume on the SPY ETF picked up substantially following the release, and now total premarket volume of that major ETF is at 21+ MM shares, the greatest I have seen in a year. There are a lot of sellers trying to get out at or above yesterday’s close, and there are an equal number of buyers at the same price level. Which will there be more of today following yesterday’s scare?
May 7th, 2010 at 9:16 am
first:
“Job gains occurred in manufacturing, professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality.”
then:
“• Birth Death Adjustment was +188k”
So they not only made up new jobs, the made up what businesses they were in???? Do they now hire novelists?
May 7th, 2010 at 9:19 am
I think I’ll pass until until the PTB come clean on what happened yesterday.
There are too many strange-colored swans flying around Europe, the Mid East, the GOM and the stock exchanges the way it is. Yesterday’s “anomaly” might become the new norm for all I know.
May 7th, 2010 at 9:20 am
we must be up to what now…57 million census workers. Somehow I’m thinking this is probably going to be the longest census undertaking in recorded history.
May 7th, 2010 at 9:23 am
Just dawned on me …
B/D +Census = 188+59 = 247
247/290 = 85%
So much for the numbers.
May 7th, 2010 at 9:26 am
Birth Death Adjustment was +188k
Census workers added government jobs to rise by 59,000,
188+59 ~ 247
NFP = +290,000
BLS language: “Sizable employment gains occurred in” manufacturing, professional and business services, health care, and in leisure and hospitality.
~~
Spin Me, Amadeus~
~~
SOP Says: May 7th, 2010 at 9:19 am
I think I’ll pass until until the PTB come clean on what happened yesterday.
There are too many strange-colored swans flying around Europe, the Mid East, the GOM and the stock exchanges the way it is. Yesterday’s “anomaly” might become the new norm for all I know.
(SOP, Wise..)
~~
and people are wondering why those ‘Trades’ are being Canceled?
May 7th, 2010 at 9:27 am
Does it seem reasonable that new claims continues at a pace of around 450,000 but 290,000 jobs were “created”? You’ve got to wonder how many jobs were created yesterday afternoon around 2 when the market started to tank?
Too bad we can’t create jobs the way we do statistics at the BLS…
May 7th, 2010 at 9:28 am
Re: yesterday’s anomoly.
Mish shows a chart of the correlation between yesterday’s plunge and the Yen… did intermarket algo’s contibute to the chaos in stocks yesterday?
Is that “fixed” for today? Is the coast clear?
~~~
BR: Just remember, Correlation does not equal causation …
May 7th, 2010 at 9:35 am
As for the comments about B/D adjustment by some people here. What is the rational for it? Or is it just frustration, because the numbers aren’t according to your wishes?
B/D adjustment isn’t necessarily wrong. It even could underestimate job creation by new businesses, particularly during the recovery phase after a recession.
However, some other point. Be beware of the seasonal adjustment of the data. It would be worth it to take the seasonally unadjusted data and look whether X-12-Arima does some strange things with it due to the strong movements in the data in 2008 and 2009. Like it apparently did with the Case-Shiller house price index, where X-12-Arima seems to have produced an increase in the seasonally adjusted data, but with an increasing divergence to the unadjusted data for recent months. S&P even published a statement regarding this issue.
May 7th, 2010 at 9:39 am
Barry,
What did I do that my comments are being held back every time and screened first, apparently? I’m not aware to have done anything to deserve this. Thanks.
~~~
BR: No idea — watch for spam words like Casino (Casino capitalism), Socialism, Viagra (market on Viagra), etc.
May 7th, 2010 at 9:43 am
An extremely strong number, considering the fact that we were only able to get a penny-ante stimulus program through our right-wing nutjob Congress!
May 7th, 2010 at 9:48 am
‘In ancient times they had no statistics so they had to fall back on lies.’
Stephen Leacock
May 7th, 2010 at 9:49 am
Did the labor pool really grow or did BLS just “rediscover” some discouraged workers who were there all along?
May 7th, 2010 at 9:51 am
OT:
“The case against Goldman Sachs” Infographic from the Onion…..
http://www.theonion.com/articles/the-case-against-goldman-sachs,17375/
Best regards,
Econolicious
May 7th, 2010 at 9:54 am
188K jumped off the page. Move along. Nothing’s changed.
May 7th, 2010 at 9:59 am
@Transor: The job market’s now so good, those folks are now officially counted as “looking” for one. Me-thinks many will be looking for quite a long time.
May 7th, 2010 at 10:06 am
10% unemployed is the new standard, as the once-vibrant US economy devolves into a bad imitation of the European welfare state.
Indeed, more stimulus should do the trick, if we could just get rid of that right-wing nutjob Congress (carrying Democratic majorities in both houses). One wonders how much stimulus a left-wing nutjob Congress might have provided. But we can still print our way to prosperity, unlike the EMU members (so long as it holds up as a viable union). Of course, the EMU will be forced to try and print, monetizing the debt of insolvent sovereigns like Greece. No organization ever willingly goes away. But it won’t work.
May 7th, 2010 at 10:26 am
I’m usually bearish, but these nfp numbers do point to a turn-around. I’m just thinking about the comparisons from 6 months ago. We still had large b/d adjustments, and we were starting to hire census folks. It’s a positive sign. What this means for the markets and our money, don’t ask me. If anything, I’m still a bear on the equity markets, and feeling a little better about US debt, as all that money is gonna exit europe and has to find some other place to go. Gold is one place, but if a fixed income buyer is looking for some level of diversity, it can’t all go into metals now can it?
I DO NOT buy the bit about jobs in manufacturing being added. Not here. Not now.
May 7th, 2010 at 10:43 am
Mark E Hoffer,
You are mistaken here. The numbers for the B/D adjustment and the census workers are seasonally unadjusted. So you have to compared them with the seasonally unadjusted NFP number, which is in the range of >1150. The seasonal adjustment is done for the total, then.
May 7th, 2010 at 10:53 am
Agree that employment data has been positive for the last few weeks. But yesterday clearly showed the patient ain’t out of the ICU yet.
“Code Blue, Code Blue: Dr. Bernanke, please bring the crash cart to the ICU — STAT.”
May 7th, 2010 at 2:23 pm
“As for the comments about B/D adjustment by some people here. What is the rational for it? Or is it just frustration, because the numbers aren’t according to your wishes?”
No, its just that at 188,000, I seem to recall back in January that they had to remove 2 million jobs from last year because they they OVERESTIMATED by 200,00 PER MONTH.
May 7th, 2010 at 2:47 pm
rc,
as for clarify, no prob., I can be wrong..
though, do you have links (for the methodolgy?)
May 7th, 2010 at 9:33 pm
The Household survey showed a net 550k in SA net job gains. Some say the Household data is a better indicator than the Establishment survey data now that it’s better. But note that in December 2009, the Household survey indicated that a net 589k jobs SA were lost, which was substantially worse than the Establishment data. I wonder if the better Household survey results now are the seasonal adjustment which are making up for the poorer results late last year.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/S0dhXO5UKiI/AAAAAAAAHlE/VEPMZxZGYDU/s1600-h/table+A+2009-12.png
May 8th, 2010 at 6:38 am
I wonder what organization has the Google/Facebook database of corporate payroll cash exchange’g hands to the laborers and the classification of that laborer .. ie mechanics, building maintanence staff, office staff, management staff and not least the primary heads? I wonder how many data collection jobs the world would lose when that robot gets constructed?
Actually I think that robot exists, but if you knew it did – they’d have to kill you.
May 8th, 2010 at 11:41 am
I put together a series of interactive charts analyzing the employment report from a couple of different directions. Thought you folks might get some use out of it. Just click on a thumbnail to see the flash version.
http://www.thumbcharts.com/series/us-unemployment-rate-1948-2010