Here’s some interesting news for those of you in the Tri-State area:
We’ve done a few investor meetings/seminars in LA, Dallas, Houston, Florida — and we’ve gotten lots of requests to do something in NY.
I’ll have the details next week, but I am thinking the week of June 7-11th is when we will do it. We will shut the office for most other business, and just meet with existing clients and potential new clients all week. In the Big D, we set up a series of lunch and dinner discussions with a few small groups — 10-20 people. We also did one on ones as the time permitted.
This will be for individuals, HNW, family offices, etc.
I’m on 3 hours sleep, working off the effects of too many organic compounds in which a hydroxyl functional group (-OH) is bound to a carbon atom, so please bear with me:
Markets look to be somewhat short term oversold. (I don’t have full access to data, but) given yesterday’s huge 90% down day, I wonder if we might see any sort of attempt to bounce them here.
In these cascades, we often see a move to new lows, followed by a quick reversal attempt. If I was in front of my screen (and if it were less blurry) I would be looking to catch a quick updraft somewhere in the down 1-2% range. (Watch the volume as we approach the lows of the May 6 Flash Crash).
This is mere uninformed speculation on my part — reversal on a Friday before the weekend? — or perhaps its the pink elephants speaking.
Regardless, watch for any attempt to staunch the bloodshed — albeit temporarily — from lower levels.
Be back after coffee . . .
~~~
UPDATE:
FYI we are putting 20-30% back to work for a bounce/trading opp. (though we remain cautious still) expecting a small mean reverting rally before potentially a lower low …
The enthusiasm over the lower house approval in Germany’s Parliament of the euro bailout plan lasted exactly one minute as we await the upper house. A sell on the news is the only reason I can come up with (yes vote was widely anticipated) or a bout with reality as it’s never good that we even got to this point and the problem of too much debt has not been dealt with. The ECB Vice Pres said “money and credit growth lies at the heart of most boom and bust cycles” and therefore they won’t have an “over activist” monetary policy. If only our Fed heeded that. Also of focus was the weaker than expected data out at 4am in Europe. German’s May IFO business confidence # was a touch below expectations even though it’s the 2nd highest figure since mid ’08. The May Euro Zone services and manufacturing composite index was 1 pt below estimates. US$ 3 mo LIBOR rose to .497, another fresh 10 month high.
Since when has labeling anything you disagree with “Socialism” a substitute for political discourse? We embarrass ourselves as a nation to the rest of the world when we do this.
Regardless, Wuerker of Politico puts this into better context:
Here is some scary news: The Gulf Oil leak has developed a tail. This suggests it is catching onto the loop current, which could take this around the Florida peninsula and up the East coast.
Hedge fund industry titans are meeting in Las Vegas to talk about investing in these wild global markets. CNBC’s David Faber talks to Barry Ritholtz, CEO of Fusion IQ, at the conference.
"I sincerely believe, with you, that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies; and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale." -Thomas Jefferson (letter to John Taylor in 1816)
After 3 quarters in a row that averaged just 1.2%, Q4 GDP grew 2.8%, a touch below expectations of 3.0% BUT Nominal GDP grew well below forecasts. Because the price deflator was up just .4% vs the estimate of 1.9%, Nominal GDP was up 3.2% vs the estimate of 4.9%. Personal Consumption rose 2.0% vs the forecast of 2.4%. Fixed Investment rose 3.3% helped by a 5.2% increase in equipment and software spending and residential construction rose by 10.9%. Trade was a slight drag on GDP growth and government spending was as well led by a 12.5% decline on national...
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