Small Business: Still No Soup for You!
Last Friday’s tease for the release of the National Federation of Business Small Business Economic Trends report (due out at 7:30 Tuesday):
NFIB Jobs Statement: Jobs Picture Still Bleak for Small Business
WASHINGTON, May 7, 2010 — William C. Dunkelberg, chief economist for the National Federation of Independent Business, the nation’s leading small business organization, issued the following statement on April job numbers based on NFIB’s monthly economic survey that will be released on Tuesday, May 11. The survey was conducted through April 30 and reflects 2,197 small business owner respondents:
“The steep recession will unlikely be followed by a steep recovery, the numbers just aren’t moving in that direction. Average employment per firm first turned negative in April of 2007. It has been negative for 10 of the last 12 quarterly readings ending with a negative 0.18 in April 2010 (seasonally adjusted). Since July 2008, employment per firm fell steadily each quarter, logging the largest reductions in the survey’s 35-year history.
“Eleven percent (seasonally adjusted) of small business owners reported unfilled job openings in April, up two points but historically very weak. Over the next three months, 7 percent plan to reduce employment (unchanged), and 14 percent plan to create new jobs (down one point), yielding a seasonally adjusted net negative 1 percent of owners planning to create new jobs. The net percent of owners increasing employment in the last three months fell one point to a net negative 12 percent. April marks the 27th consecutive ‘no new jobs’ monthly reading.
“There is little enthusiasm among owners to hire more workers, primarily due to continued weak sales trends.”
As small businesses account for roughly 60 percent of our job creation, it is very hard to imagine that Friday’s NFP print will be durable or sustainable without them on board. More on this file (i.e. a look at the numbers) when the report is released.
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May 11th, 2010 at 6:17 am
And the people who work for the large corporations are going YEARS with no raises, frozen salaries, made to re-apply for the same job under a different title with a significant reduction in pay, work longer hours and get little, if any, overtime.
Ain’t corporate America great? Real leaders and big-picture thinkers, these “geniuses.”
Let me know when CEO and H/R hunting seasons start.
May 11th, 2010 at 7:01 am
Small business here for over 27 years. Started as AG sales and service when we had dairy farms, as the dairy went over to horses and Angus and more land development we changed over to excavation 11 years ago. Have always had 5 employees year round and up to 10 some years. Last year ended up with 3 and are up to 4 now. Have lots of work, ( we have an excellent reputation) but will stay lean this year and my husband is running equipment and the jobs, becoming the 5th employee. Just got off the phone w/ NFIB yesterday about membership renewal. Have renewed at 500.00 to 600.00 every year, but not this one,. They are asking people to try to renew at 175.00 because it’s so bad out there. I told her to call me back next week. On top of that , ewe are in NY with the MCTC tax now and our truck tags have gone up 100.00 each yearly. harder and harder to operate in NY. Two years and the kid is 18 and we could be out of here.
May 11th, 2010 at 7:13 am
[...] Still an Un-Recovery for small business. (TBP) [...]
May 11th, 2010 at 7:44 am
Don’t worry, everybody. Goldman Sachs and AIG are doing just fine.
May 11th, 2010 at 8:14 am
Well .. sometimes wet sometimes dry sometimes explosive (& with oil) .. I imagine some Save the Gulf business’ will get start up .. small business being the driver of years past with crunching down credit from the banks .. 90% of startup businesses fail in 5 years (off the top my head) .. I do think there is some self serving benevolence with giving credit (but it seems thats gotta change)
Trickle Down and New & Old money
(this double pyrimid diamond may be striped of spaces by site programming)
$ Warren & Bill
$$$
$$$$
meme & friends (stuck in the middle with you)
$$$$
$$$
$ Rothchilds & RC Church
May 11th, 2010 at 8:50 am
Hey, hang on a sec. Isn’t this category of jobs supposed to be the primary focused upon category and purpose behind the birth/death model adjustments…. i.e. to account for those ‘small mom and pop’ shops that do not get picked up in any polling or survey? If so, so what the hell is with the birth/death model debate? This data then pretty much takes the entire birth/death model as well as the debate over it’s validity out with the garbage.
May 11th, 2010 at 8:51 am
(yep – spaces swipped)
and another thing I’m starting to feel .. well 2 things
- information overload with no outlet for it / but to vent (sound like a whinner) .. thats why this internet thingie needs to give us a VOICE (a loud voice for change) – 2D Information exchange is getting old (and 3D glasses isn’t going to help)
- Graphics .. dear to me for many years .. this computer + digital camera thingie is amazing .. I have loved it coming into existance .. but its continuous price declines for late arrivers is a kick.itg
… start’g with a 8088 ZX81 next Tandy IBMPC cloan (both gone) but still have (4) operating stations (because) with (1)DOS6 BASIC Win3.1 for WordProc w/ dotMatrix NCRpaper printer (2)Win98se for graphics (3)Win2000 for video editing (4) laptop1 for surfing (old & slow)
Now at my new HP laptop in Win7 + nanoUSBwifiMouse (so I can surf my fav sites w/ geezer ease) … I’m slowly coming round to the race in graphics being unwin-able (in minor markets) with new kids and I mean kids coming online all the time / looking for that startup fresh outta college …. hit submit & stop storytelling .. gotta find a real 3D .. the bottom of the diamond is counting on me
May 11th, 2010 at 9:10 am
I’m selling my business and getting a job with the government. Why fight the trend?
May 11th, 2010 at 9:37 am
LOL Soc’ism ..
the GEtv jived me for 1 more dig at your crawls .. why not APPL .. because it didn’t hook me years ago .. sorta like religion .. sorta along the lines why not Euro cars (but that started out as a Midwest job security line) .. those lines got skew’d with global engineering and corp’ism
lol Marketeer’g (soup lines for you)
May 11th, 2010 at 12:42 pm
A few weeks ago, COGNOS was snarking anyone who disagreed with his contention that 95% of U.S. households were better off, i.e. had more purchasing power, and the fact that small businesses were not hiring but rather circling their wagons to survive was trivial. COGNOS also proudly told us he was all in long with no stop loss necessary. What he saw was not so much green shoots as lush gardens with low hanging fruit.
The last eight weeks have averaged 450,000 Initial Unemployment Claims per week. So in the last month 1.8 million people were laid off. But the NFP says that 290,000 new jobs were created.
How did they come up with that number? The CES Birth/Death adjustment added 188,000. (This is a guess of how many new businesses were started this month, and then a guess of how many new employees were hired by those new businesses.) Another 66,000 of the new jobs came from temporary hiring for the census. An additional 26,000 of the new jobs were non-census temporary.
So of the 290,000 “new jobs”, 280,000 or 96% were either guesses or temporary.