I presented this week at the Ryan’s Metal conference, discussing the state of the US economy. Also presenting was Thomas Berner, Chief US Economist of UBS, who discussed the state of the global economy.

He had this terrific chart (below). It makes it pretty clear that so far — nearly a year after the point where the recession looks to have technically ended — the recovery remains weak:

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Category: Economy

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

14 Responses to “Deep Global Recession, Only Moderate Recovery”

  1. globaleyes says:

    You’d have to go to a zoo to see a more BEARISH chart than that. Hell, I even see the bear’s claw and it’s scratching, tearing, mangling and mauling recovery!

    Are things worse than they seem ?

  2. JustinTheSkeptic says:

    Needs go back to 1925, to get to apples/apples. Since investor sentiment sucks we’ll probably go up another 30% from here before selling off again. Keep an eye out for a falling meteorite it could change things in a hurry.

  3. Super-Anon says:

    Given the massive spending and credit binge required to generate this meager growth (which may not be repeatable in the future) this is kind of an ominous statistic.

  4. Marcus Aurelius says:

    That length of blue line is what $1T in fiat dollars will buy you.

  5. The Curmudgeon says:

    By what metric is it concluded that “potential” GDP is upwards of 3%? Is it just an acknowledgment that in nature things generally accrete/grow at roughly “e”, i.e., about 2.78%? But can economies grow when populations are not? Japan’s experience, et al, would indicate not. For mature economies, economic growth that exceeds population growth seems a difficult proposition. Western Europe is beginning to feel the limits to economic growth that inhere with a stagnant or declining population.

  6. franklin411 says:

    Only on the intertubes could the strongest recovery since 1974 be considered “weak.”

  7. ML says:

    The only thing better than catching up on The Big Picture, is catching up on The BP this way!

    http://www.vuvuzela-time.co.uk/www.ritholtz.com/blog/

  8. The Curmudgeon says:

    @MEH, indeed. Left out the one in the hundred’s place. 2.718% is a natural growth rate of money, and other things, but not when the corpus is sloughing away, like it is w/ Japan and its population.

  9. cvienne says:

    @franklin411

    Looks to me like this chart was intended exclusively for you…

    Since you seem to be on the “40 year plan” of investing, the chart perfectly illustrates the 1970 peak and the 2010 peak…

    Just get one of those crayons you use in your lessons and a straight edge to approximate where you’ll be 40 years hence…

    Looks like all that government spending will get us just about to the “ZILCH-O” line…

  10. willid3 says:

    did we really recover from the 2001 recession? or did we paper it over with loans? none the other economic data (jobs, income) had much if any growth. so did a recovery really happen? and could this debacle be nothing more than the 2nd leg down from that one?

  11. rootless_cosmopolitan says:

    @franklin411:

    Only on the intertubes could the strongest recovery since 1974 be considered “weak.”

    Please could you reveal the data on which your claim is based, or are you just desperate? It can’t be the chart displayed above by Barry, since this chart shows that this “recovery” has one of the lowest GDP growth numbers after a recession for the last 40 years (despite unprecedented Keynesian stimulus all over the world). And it looks like the “recovery” is about to be finished in USA already, and the recession will likely be back later this year.

  12. ashpelham2 says:

    @willid3: I actually agree with your comment. To me, all of the growth that came in 2002 and onward until we hit the skids in late 07 – early 08 was of a borrowed kind. Consumers borrowed until they were blue in the face, and everyone just nodded and agreed. Many folks who knew better made comments like “it’s all borrowed money”, and even the Dixie Chicks commented in a song that some people “have money, but they don’t have Cash”.

    Forgive the Dixie Chicks quote. I live in a house full of women. And the reference was probably more to do with not having JOHNNY Cash, but still, a quip for the times.

    I don’t think we structurally changed much from around 1999 till 2008, except overleveraging. Since then, we most certainly have structurally changed, in all ways: less availability of credit, worse job outlook, too much government intervention into the general economy. It’s a fucking mess.