Larry Kudlow, December 7, 2007:

BUSH BOOM CONTINUES

There is no recession. Despite all the doom and gloom from the economic pessimistas, the resilient U.S economy continues moving ahead—quarter after quarter, year after year—defying dire forecasts and delivering positive growth. In fact, we are about to enter the seventh consecutive year of the Bush boom.

Larry Kudlow, June 8, 2010:

I don’t yet see a double-dip recession.

You have been warned.

Category: Economy, Financial Press, Markets, Television, Think Tank

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

77 Responses to “Fair Warning”

  1. The Curmudgeon says:

    The Bush Boom? Really? Sounds strangely erotic. Well, Kudlow is something of a porn star of an analyst.

  2. peter north says:

    I did hear that is kind of coming back – short Brazilian waxing stocks.

    Short Kudlow too. Grotesquely stupid.

  3. scharfy says:

    You made me do it.

    I love The Big Picture. But it has been reclassified in my Bookmarks Folder and moved from “top 10″ to “liberal blogs” such as BaseLine Scenario, HuffPo, DailyKos, and MoveOn.org.

    Not that I don’t love insightful posts such as “Art Laffer and Larry Kudlow are idoits and I can prove it.” or the ultra sweet “Sarah Palin got low SAT’s!” rants.

    It just puts the Blog into a different category.

    And if there is one thing I have learned her at TBP, its that objectivity rules. Gotta call a spade a spade.

    Not contradicting the fact that Kudlow is a moron, just saying this HAS to be considered a liberal blog.

    I dare anyone to dispute that.

    (Just bought some more BP. I’m am emotionally married to BP now.)

  4. inthewoods says:

    Uh, it’s not a liberal blog – there, I disputed it. It is a blog with low tolerance for morons – which is half the reason I read it.

  5. JustinTheSkeptic says:

    My take is that BR is, Center, Center, Left. That’s my take after reading him for about three years now.

  6. Dow says:

    Pretty much everyone who has a tv show on television today is so enamored with their own words that they haven’t a clue what’s going on beyond the glow of the lights surrounding the make up mirror.

  7. As you might notice in the top right of the post, the author is Invictus, an anonymous and highly placed asset manager at a major firm, whose name can never be uttered.

    It was not I who write this . . .

  8. Bullish Bear says:

    To review: Criticize Laffer or Kudlow?
    You are a Liberal

    Challenge the War in Iraq?
    You are a traitor.

    Fail to make a sufficiently bearish argument?
    You’ve sold out, gone to the dark side.

    Rather than deal with the facts, it is so much easier to call people names

    Seriously people, go back and reread your comments in 6 months — you will be embarrassed.

  9. RuffRednSore says:

    Scharfy,
    Regardless, BR does not hold back on either party.

    As a contrast, try reading the articles (and comments if you can stomach it) over at Zerohedge or Business Insider. They definitley have an agenda there….

  10. RuffRednSore says:

    Oh and just to add, that sometimes FACTS have a liberal bias.

  11. Mike in Nola says:

    Wait, let me run out and buy some puts. Haven’t watched Larry in awhile, but this last confirms that he beats Cramer as a contrary indicator.

  12. b_thunder says:

    More Green Shoots:

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/06/mba-mortgage-purchase-applications_09.html

    while technically correct for the time being, the statement “…homebuyers have not yet returned to the market following the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit ” IMHO will have to be changed as buyers will NOT “return” until the prices are significantly lower

  13. troubled times says:

    No bigger RNC Zombie on TV

  14. Tao Jonesing says:

    I get it.

    If one disagrees with a conservative, they are a liberal, and what they say can be discounted or ignored.

    Similarly, if one points out that somebody is making facts up, if the fabricator is a conservative, the commentor is a liberal, and what they say can be discounted or ignored.

    Finally, if one calls an idiot an idiot, if the idiot is a conservative, the commentor is a liberal, and what they say can be discounted or ignored.

    That’s a pretty insular world you’ve created for yourself there, scharfy. Wish I had one like that.

  15. callistenes says:

    Lets add Dick Bove to the no double dip crowd. Talk about a contrary indicator.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/bernanke-and-bove-agree-no-'double-dip'-but-growth-jobs-will-be-scarce-500754.html

  16. mathman says:

    For a more reality based appraisal of where we are, try this:

    http://questioneverything.typepad.com/

  17. scharfy says:

    @tao.

    Clever, but not really what I was getting at.

    More like:

    If I pull facts from the fact-o-sphere in a consistently subjective manner, even if the facts are facts, I am not being factual.

    Fact it, I gotta get back to work!!

  18. alfred e says:

    I don’t think any of these pundits (that includes Bernanke) have a clue.

    There are too many mixed signals, the stimulus is not totally flushed, states and munis are hanging on by their fingernails.

    My guess is, as a “major” signal, GDP gets stuck in neutral or worse. Deflationary pressures have not gone away. Nor has our ginormous mountain of public and private debt.

    Seems everyone’s hoping for a sunny day tomorrow. Hope is not a strategy, as they say.

  19. Mannwich says:

    In Opposite World, incompetence is rewarded (with continued employment, paychecks, attention, etc.) the way competence used to be in Regular World.

  20. AJB says:

    I thought Luskin was the ultimate contrary indicator! Remember in early May when he said to sell US equities and buy gold?! Or before that when he suggested avoiding foreign equities?!

    What a dope! Oh. What? Oh, okay strike that.

    Hmmm…I’m beginning to think that calling someone a contrary indicator is itself a contrary-contrary indicator.

    Kind of like the anti-anti-missile-missle-missle. (Any other Rocky and Bullwinkle fans out there?)

  21. Thor says:

    Interesting that those on the far right always go for the “You’re a liberal” card when BR or Invictus says something they don’t agree with. A testament to how far to the right so many of the conservatives have moved over the last 10 years.

    ~~~

    BR: It also points to how intellectually bankrupt one is, if all disagreements are met with name calling. Its very weak . . .

  22. Mannwich says:

    @scharfy: Although I often agree with your viewpoint, you are WAY off base here. What about this post strikes you as “liberal”? That it has a factual slant to it? I simply don’t get it. It’s the old canard of labeling someone a dirty “liberal” when you have nothing else to offer.

  23. Mannwich says:

    @Thor: You beat me to the punch by a minute!

  24. BTW, if I had to pick a politician whose views I embraced, it would be NY Senator Jacob Javitz — a moderate Republican who believed in a balanced budgets, no overseas involvement, low taxes and no government interference with personal issues (Birth control, gay marriage, abortion)

    Fiscal conservative, strong civil libertarian

    These Republicans no longer exist, as they have been marginalized by the extremist wing of the GOP.

  25. Mannwich says:

    @alfred e: I suspect they know more than you think, but know that our economy and markets are two giant confidence games so they have no choice but to pump this for mass consumption. If average J6P goes into a shell and stops spending and burying him/herself in debt up to their eyeballs, it’s game over for the economy, markets and country. The reflationary confidence game is all they have left.

  26. Rob King says:

    I don’t know how we got into a conservative vs. liberal debate, but can we all just agree that Larry Kudlow is an idiot? For the record, Michael Moore is an idiot too, but this post wasn’t about Michael Moore.

  27. Invictus says:

    @AJB

    FWIW, Luskin’s way more often wrong than right, and beyond that he is dishonest. When he wrote a piece — which I’ll have to find — touting an increase in sequential (month-over-month) home sales median prices, I pointed out to him a footnote in the NAR’s release:

    3The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to the seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns.

    Instead of correcting his piece, Luskin wrote me back a rambling, incoherent screed about why doing what he did was, in fact, on the up-and-up, notwithstanding the NAR’s footnote. That is dishonest.

    And, in closing, it should be noted that his gold call had everything to do with his view that by now we’d be facing rampant inflation, not for any other reason. That inflation call has, thus far, not worked out quite so well. Luskin is a tool.

  28. scharfy says:

    @manny

    Just a little shove from the right in terms of opinion. The posts in my opinion have had a creeping bias in terms of political leanings.

    (Note: not disputing factual accuracy, just selection of said facts )

    Would you dispute this blog leans left? a little even?

  29. scharfy says:

    Apologize to all for hijacking this thread

  30. Myr says:

    Uh, didn’t Barry himself say in the just the past week that he doesn’t see a double dip coming either?

  31. Mannwich says:

    @scharfy: I wouldn’t necessarily dispute that. I hear you.

  32. AJB says:

    @Invictus

    I have absolutely no doubt that you are right about Luskin’s long term record. I am also absoutely certain that your credentials to critique him, Kudlow, etc. exceed mine.

    I just think if we call someone out, i’s only fair to follow up on it.

  33. Mannwich says:

    Don’t forget about Jerry Bowyer. Yet another dishonest hack and TOOL. Where’s he been lately?

  34. cvienne says:

    @scharfy

    (Just bought some more BP. I’m am emotionally married to BP now.)

    Looking at todays tape… Looks like it’s going to become a core holding…

  35. Robespierre says:

    Get over it. The country is a two party system: The Oligarchs (Dems and Repub. in power) and the rest. The rest are divided into: The ones who think the Dems are liberals, The ones who thing they are conservatives and the rest…

  36. callistenes says:

    Lets add Mishkin to the list too.

  37. Mannwich says:

    Exactly Robespierre. I don’t even bother arguing politics anymore. It’s a waste of time and energy.

  38. alfred e says:

    @Myr: While BR has not called a double dip, IMHO he’s been rather coy about the possibility for it. Don’t think he’s ruled it out yet.

    Just looking for more data.

    Putting words in his mouth, the odds are fairly even.

    BR?

  39. call me ahab says:

    Bush Boom-

    yes- those were the days- a mortgage debt induced spending bonanza- and one thing is for sure- Bush didn’t give a shit one way or another which way the market went- he had his eyes on other things- like invading countries-

    in any event- no-one ever accused Kudlow of being bright- and that he has not yet seen a double dip doesn’t mean he won’t acknowledge it a year or so into it

  40. pokeman says:

    “Oh and just to add, that sometimes FACTS have a liberal bias.”

    OK…

    And sometimes FACTS have a “conservative” bias.

    DUH…

    This isn’t the age of information anymore, it’s morphed into the age of propaganda.

  41. scharfy:
    I see you still haven’t addressed the fact that BR didn’t write this post. Secondly, calling out an idiot like Kudlow means you are a Democrat? Have you learned nothing from reading this blog? You do know the history is carnival barkers and thieves on Wall Street, right?

  42. JSchmid says:

    I love Larry Kudlow’s show, but the comparison is completely correct. No one on TV wants to tell the truth about our floundering economy in fear that if they say it it will come true in a quicker fashion and they will be blamed for causing it. Even Jim Cramer is too scared to say it these days!

  43. Fitgerald says:

    This of course comes from the prognosticating pimp himself, Kudlow. What do you expect from a former Reagan budget office economist? Privately I’m sure Larry doesn’t believe half the bull, yes double meaning here, he spouts. He didn’t buy it when he was part of the starve the pig, we’ll grow out of the deficit chicago school crowd, and I’m sure he didn’t buy it this last go around. I think this is why he has Bob Reich on his show so much, so he can have someone else say things he can never bring himself to say publicly.

  44. Mysticdog says:

    the stimulus is not totally flushed

    Most of the stimulus wasn’t even stimulus. A lot was tax breaks that got pocketed as profit, some was tax breaks to just push people over the edge to buy things they probably ought not buy, and most of the rest went to partially offsetting the enormous losses of state revenue to keep state workers employed.

    Very little went into long term infrastructure or energy distribution or research, which might have led to real economic stimulus. The country got a No-Doze when it needed an adrenaline shot to the chest.

  45. Invictus says:

    @ Mysticdog

    Very little went into long term infrastructure or energy distribution or research, which might have led to real economic stimulus. The country got a No-Doze when it needed an adrenaline shot to the chest.

    Bingo.

  46. scepticus says:

    “If average J6P goes into a shell and stops spending and burying him/herself in debt up to their eyeballs, it’s game over for the economy, markets and country. The reflationary confidence game is all they have left.”

    Hasn’t it always been that way? When was it ever not that way?

    Capitalism is about confidence of investors and consumers. I’m struggling to see what has changed in this regard. Sure moral hazard etc etc, but the confidence thing, animal spirits – no change there, its just they are harder to animate.

  47. Mannwich says:

    @scepticus: Sure, it’s always been that way to a degree but confidence and trust need to be based on real, substantive things that are worthy of that confidence and trust. When it’s nothing but smoke & mirrors so the sheeple can continue to get fleeced over and over again, we have a problem. Trust and confidence in the system and each other are are breaking down right now because much of the public believes (and rightfully so, I think) that it is either being taken for a ride by our so-called “leaders” in nearly every institutional sector of our country (corporate, gov’t, religious, etc.) and/or or that our “leaders” simply don’t know what the hell they are doing or how to truly solve these problems.

  48. Daffyorbugs says:

    scepticus:

    Exactly. Why do people here continue to pretend it wasn’t like this “before”, whenever that was?

  49. forester_dude says:

    My strategy from now on is simple: long on gold, short on Kool Aid & ink (they gotta run out of it eventually)..

  50. scepticus says:

    mannwich, it has always, always been smoke and mirrors. Its just that that fact was disguised by external factors like population growth and the destruction of excess capacity in europe during WWII, amking all the happy stuff seem more real.

    through the 60s-80s the sheeple were getting fleeced, they just didn’t notice so much because of generalised good stuff going on, and even though the returns to sheeple during this period were a lot less than they should have been given the benign economic environment, they didn’t mind because they got a net positive result.

    only supreme confidence can cause a sheeple to put his savings in a bank. and only supreme confidence could possibly maintain the value of savings put under a mattress.

  51. Mannwich says:

    @scepticus: Fair point. Perhaps I have just awoken to that fact within the last 5-10 years or so? I think that’s probably the case. Same with others who are now coming to this conclusion.

  52. call me ahab says:

    Hasn’t it always been that way? When was it ever not that way? Capitalism is about confidence of investors and consumers.

    yeah- that’s the spirit- same as it ever was-

    just have to be confident- even if you have no reason to be- as if the tag team that is the banks and the USG aren’t busy eroding confidence on a daily basis-

    Why do people here continue to pretend it wasn’t like this “before”, whenever that was?

    you mean back when people had some amount of trust in institutions such as Wall Street and government?

    trust is not like the trillions showered on the banks- it has to be earned- even harder when you have proven that you are not be trusted

  53. d4winds says:

    I have been long seeking the ultimate stock guru, the guy you can rely on to be wrong, ALWAYS. Neither Kudlow nor Cramer quite live up to this ideal but both try.

  54. mkkby says:

    Barry, are you bearish now? I thought you wrote just a few days ago how you DIDN’T see a double dip coming. Being treated for that schizophrenia I hope. (I’m not disagreeing, just calling out your hypocrisy)

    ~~~

    BR: First off, I didn’t write this. (See the author’s name in the corner).

    But since you seem to think — foolishly I might add — that the economy and short term market swings are somehow related, I will address this to those who might be interested in learning something.

    I noted back on May 5th that we went 100% Cash. Since then, we deployed about 25% long but fully hedged with QIDs. When the market breaks out in either direction, we will close out the opposite position and ride the directional holdings until the next reversal.

    PS: Try to be less of douchebag next time . . .

  55. Drewbie says:

    I’m pay good money to see just one person ask Kudlow “how’s that Bush Boom going?” on live TV.

  56. scepticus says:

    mannwich, take a wee look at this – it makes everything clear in one graph. Its all you need to know.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Share_top_1%25.jpg

    look at the surge starting 1985. That was reagan/thatcher. Its gotten worse since then but make no mistake where it all kicked off. Note the timing of the last peak. 1929.

    on the upside, the graph does look like a smiling face. Question is, whose face?

  57. call me ahab says:

    drewbie-

    now that’s funny-

    maybe we can cajole BR into doing it- if he’s ever a guest-

    and BR- have to ask- any second thought on buying BP? 6000 lawsuits-

    that’s a lot of open ended unknowable liability there- kind of hard to put a value figure on BP I would think

    ~~~

    BR: I have no opinion on BP

  58. call me ahab says:

    BR says-

    “Try to be less of douchebag next time . “

    damn BR- a bit harsh? lol

    mkkby is just trying to make friends :D

  59. call me ahab says:

    BR-

    dude- I think I misread that Dilbert/BP post from yesterday- my meth and alcohol induced haze had me thinking you bought BP-

    disregard my 5:04

  60. Winston Munn says:

    “These Republicans no longer exist, as they have been marginalized by the extremist wing of the GOP.”

    Sure they do, Barry. Only now they are called progressives and comprise the far left of the Democratic Party.

  61. CrispE says:

    Ladies and Gentlemen,

    Larry Kudlow ran around the country in 2000 claiming that oil would be $7 a barrel within 3 years and trumpeting his analysis of the economy as top-notch while the candle had already been lit for the 2001 debacle. He deserves and has no credibility. Every time Barry has appeared on his show he has ridiculed his positions as extreme and non-credible.

    Now, everyone is wrong from time to time, but anyone who would take Kudlow or Cramer’s analysis before BR’s is lucky to have any money at all left to invest in the first place.

    Frankly, I want analysis that makes you money, not the loudest or the one seeking the greatest media exposure.

  62. philipat says:

    As a non-Americna, perhaps someone can help me understand this.

    So anyone who thinks that the moronic and consistently wrong Kudlow is a moron, because Kudlow is a Right wing moron, must therefore be a Liberal?

    And this type of analytical thought represents world leadership. Scary.

    Like Bush said “You’re either with us or against us”. Sorry to repaeat myself.

  63. catman says:

    Yesterday we had Laffer, today Kudlow. Reminds me of Steinbrenner’s Yankees. They had a weakness for big name over the hill pitchers. Same delivery, stuff long gone.

  64. Rescission says:

    BR,

    Don’t throw me out yet, but your views seem very similar to Pat Buchanan. Except for his strong Catholic faith that has him speak out against abortion, he is an “old line” conservative (not a neo conservative like Bush). Pat was a fierce opponent to the Iraq war and is called an isolationist, he’s a big believer in staying home and out of other country’s business, balanced budgets, low taxes and government staying out of your life. People miscast Pat.
    I have read his books and was really surprised at how smart this guy is, even if his message isn’t always communicated smoothly.

  65. princess says:

    The Kudlow quotes combination is ironic and funny. For such a fun, thoughtful, best information-packed blog to have *dumb* comments over and over again today….Sorry Barry that the comments are not up to the level of your blog! But maybe the point is the blog is so amazingly full of great things to think about…who could match it!
    Jacob Javitz; fiscal conservative and strong civil libertarian….does that always mean moderate Republican? Why can’t there be more now? What can we do? Maybe I’m not a Democrat!

  66. Guillotin says:

    The same warning could apply to almost anybody: Roubini, Rosenberg, Ritholtz, etc.

    For example:

    March 9, 2009, Nouriel Roubini, “My main scenario is that it’s highly likely it [S&P 500] goes to 600 or below … 500 is less likely, but there is some possibility you get there.”

    Or

    March 9, 2009, David Rosenberg, “the S&P 500 may bottom out at 600 in October”.

    http://preview.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=apvoCvLuZJkg

    Yet, an alter ego of Barry Ritholtz, aka Invictus, has selectively picked on Kudlow (who also happened to be a republican) — suggesting that either the alter ego has a hidden market related or political agenda, or some unresolved internal psychological personal conflicts directed against Kudlow (most likely a combination of both).

    P.S. Sorry Barry for being blunt, but this is how I see it.

    ~~~

    BR: Blunt is good, I appreciate the viewpoint.

    But I do have to point out that Invictus is a real person (not an alter ego), Kudlow’s record speaks for itself.

    Plus, Invictus and I have disagreed in these pages. He is more enamored of Rosie than I, and to the Left than me (I consider myself an enlightened centrist ).

    But given his high position in a Wire house, I find his insights valuable.

  67. Andy T says:

    “Since then, we deployed about 25% long but fully hedged with QIDs”

    I don’t remember that “fully hedged with QIDs” at the time, but congrats if you were. How is that position much different than being in cash? So, you’re 25% long but have some sort of 100% hedge against the entire length? So, I guess it’s a “stock pickers” market after all….

    Good luck BR.

  68. Andy T says:

    Just did a cursory look on the last several pages of entries….your last one on portfolio allocation said this on May 25th:

    “We are 24% long, with a 6% short position in the QIDs. Hence, our net exposure is 18%.”

    Maybe there was one in between that I missed….

  69. beaufou says:

    A financed economy that produces nothing concrete is an illusion of wealth.
    Stagnant wages, hidden inflation by multiplying the price of commodities ( speculating) are very real in comparison.
    Very real people pay the price for that.
    More than 50% of Americans are living in debt, nearly 20% are unemployed, is it because they live over their means or because this system is bleeding them dry?
    Now take the next round of money printing (there is no inflation and a liquidity shortage anyway) and inject it directly into the population.
    Lift taxes from small businesses (you can re-introduce it progressively) who pay their employees more and create more jobs, tax the rich at the same rate Einsenhower did in the fifties and ban speculating on commodities.
    Reconfigure the living wage including, food, housing and oil, don’t hide inflation.
    Get rid of the Federal Reserve, create a neutral central bank owned by nobody but an entity in charge of creating funds and destroying them once the government pays the loans off.
    Create an international system based on local production, not protectionism, where production has to be balanced with consuming in order to keep your money’s value.
    Create jobs, pay a man what he is worth and long live progress.

  70. Fitgerald says:

    Larry was much better years ago when he had that other guy as his co-host…Jimmy…I forget his last name. Whatever happened to him? A very enthusiastic young fellow.

  71. Carse says:

    Barry Ritholtz Says:
    June 9th, 2010 at 2:31 pm
    BTW, if I had to pick a politician whose views I embraced, it would be NY Senator Jacob Javitz — a moderate Republican who believed in a balanced budgets, no overseas involvement, low taxes and no government interference with personal issues (Birth control, gay marriage, abortion)

    Fiscal conservative, strong civil libertarian

    These Republicans no longer exist, as they have been marginalized by the extremist wing of the GOP.

    They no longer exist, not because of the extreme wing of the GOP, they no longer exist because their are none involved in public office– fiscal conservatism went nearly extinct with the baby boomers. Although there are a few around, just not enough to make a difference. The Republican Party is more Libertarian than most Republicans even realize.

  72. Carse says:

    I love misspelling words too, hang with it long enough and I’ll have you laughing….

  73. dead hobo says:

    Larry Kudlow, June 8, 2010:

    I don’t yet see a double-dip recession.

    reply:
    —————-
    Me neither at this time.

    Squalid growth … probably. Disappointments in abundance … Most certainly. Hurting economic sectors now that debt financed stimulus is kaput … Absolutely.

    Is Laffer a goofball … True beyond a single doubt

    Now … Is the stock market correction confused by Wall Street hucksters as being the same as a double dip recession … YES!!!

  74. rileyx67 says:

    Kudlow’s column yesterday was amazing…whereby he linked Obama’s “doling out” with “gold prices roaring ahead. No mention of the fact that all other commodities are way down YTD, that might have weakened his “argument”!

  75. [...] week, TBP contributor Invictus posted comments about my pal Larry Kudlow. These comments noted that Larry was not in the recession camp as of [...]

  76. [...] week, TBP contributor Invictus posted comments about my pal Larry Kudlow. These comments noted that Larry was not in the recession camp as of [...]