David Rosenberg offers us this thought provoking chart comparing the Gold rally with, well everything else.
The implication being, Gold has much further to run:
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GOLD RALLY IN CONTEXT WITH PRIOR SECULAR BULL MARKETS
measuring trough-to-peak percent change
courtesy of Gluskin Sheff
Category: Gold & Precious Metals, Technical Analysis
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
scrawny ain’t he?
The yellow dog is acting like the runt of the litter
In breaking news, Al Gore & Tipper split! Looks like it is a bit of Global COOLING happening….Al Gore’s wife is kicking him to the curb! She prolly got tired of all of his hot air BS polluting the climate around her! Tipper probably said here’s an inconvenient truth…I’m tired of your hanging chad… or maybe Tipper kept leaving the lights on inside the house..or Al got tired of her “growing carbon footprint”
If this time around all the other asset categories have performed in a similar manner to their past (which I don’t believe we can say from the above chart), then this makes all those gold big … what is the word? Oh yeah, “losers”.
The future, of course, is an unwritten (or at least unread) book. But if we are considering the performance of the yellow metal against a lot of other stuff since the point in time of the Great Inflection in March 2009, “Losers” would seem to be the appropriate term.
You’d be scrawny looking too if you had JPM and GS putting their boot on your neck for all their buddies at the Fed.
If gold wasn’t such a disaster and shining light on the US Ponzi scheme you’d see that little reject trounce them all!!!
that’s “bugs”, not “big”. My computer has this feature where I am instantly able to see all my typos the moment that I click the “submit comment” button.
This is certainly a comprehensive list of bull markets but the comparisons are inaccurate since the graphic is missing:
1) Local currency inflation adjustment
2) A time/duration component
The inflation adjustment is of utmost importance, which is why it can be difficult to compare U.S. bull markets with with bull markets from Japan or Hong Kong. I prefer to stick with U.S. data since we have plenty of bull markets and bubbles to use as context.
The following chart is designed to compare both the trough to peak % change as well as the duration of the bubbles using the headline CPI to adjust for inflation:
http://www.thumbcharts.com/1300/gold-at-3000-only-if-bubbles-repeat
This one uses standard deviation to compare the inflation-adjusted level (headline CPI again) of the four primary U.S. asset bubbles of the last 30+ years:
http://www.thumbcharts.com/1311/asset-bubbles-since-1976
A good source of info on LATAM mining, and in particular, gold production, is:
http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/
The author is currently offering free access to his weekly, which has some interesting info on gold production in Peru and its recent downturn. Worth a click.
Disclosure: I read the blog and appreciate the granular info it presents (case in point Eike Batista’s recent shares acquisition in Ventana Gold via his 63x master fund). The craythur is in the details… I receive no benefit from shilling for the guy, whom, truth be told, is from perfidious Albion! In fact, I owe him a lomo saltado and an indeterminate amount of Pilsen.
As an aside, BVN is not broadly known in the US, but maybe of some interest to people who follow this sector. I would recommend a look…as far as other actions, you’re on your own.
Looks like gold has been in a bull market since 2005 at a minimum. 5 years * 365 = 1825 days. A little different than the chart
This comparison isn’t completely correct ’cause it should be adjusted to asset volatility.
Daft statistical nonsense of tail events.