The Big Picture - Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Technology, and Digital Media

In a continuation of the hangover from the end of the home buying tax credit, the June NAHB home builder survey was a weaker than expected 17 vs the estimate of 21 and down from 22 in May. It is now back in line though with the one yr average. Present conditions fell 6 pts to 17 and the Future outlook fell 4 pts to 23, the lowest since March ’09 when it reached 15. Prospective Buyers Traffic fell 2 pts to 14. The NAHB chairman said that while we expected a temporary pull back in the builders’ outlook after the expiration of the tax credit, “the reduction in consumer activity may have been more dramatic than some builders had anticipated.” “Builders still remain very cautious and are aware that several factors could impede the nascent housing recovery, including serious problems in obtaining financing for the production of housing, faulty appraisal practices and competition from short sales and foreclosed properties.”