Markets see glass half full on global growth
Optimism that the global economy can overcome the current debt challenges is what is helping markets. Asian stocks followed the US rally on Friday and cheered the best consumer confidence level in the US since Jan ’08. European futures, the Euro, commodities and commodity currencies got further help at 2am when Weir Group PLC, a big player in the minerals and mining business said business is running “stronger than expected” and they expect profit for the 2nd half of ’10 “to be significantly ahead of profit for the 2nd half of ’09 in constant currency terms.” Also, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) raised its ’10 GDP estimate for the UK to 1.3% from 1% due to the weaker pound which ironically is sending the pound to a 4 1/2 week high vs the $. In addition, Apr Euro zone IP rose .8%, above estimates of a .5% gain. The one caveat as a result is Euro bond yields are up across the board with new 20 month highs in Spain.
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June 14th, 2010 at 8:37 am
Incredible how quickly things turn around. Looks like some sort of bottom was put in w/the leaked news out of China on Wed night that their exports were up 50% YoY. Burden of proof lies with the bears now.
June 14th, 2010 at 9:53 am
You see, this is why soccer is called the beautiful game :)
June 14th, 2010 at 10:36 am
“Markets” might be a misleading word in this case. Who, exactly, is buying what, exactly? This thin-volume run-up we’ve seen over the past few days smells a bit like a bit of opportunistic trading by day-traders and high-frequency bots. The market means only and exactly whomever is trading on a given day. The market is neither monolithic nor consistently composed of the same players.
There is some truly good news about some real fundamentals, but the global debt issue remains unresolved. Global political scene (read: North Korea) looks like a powder keg. And while we think we know how to explain the downslope of the flash crash, no one has yet explained the upslope to my satisfaction. Nothing about the behavior of this market seems sane or stable.
June 14th, 2010 at 10:38 am
“Markets” might be a misleading word in this case. Who, exactly, is buying what, exactly? This thin-volume run-up we’ve seen over the past few days smells a bit like a bit of opportunistic trading by day-traders and high-frequency bots. The market means only and exactly whomever is trading on a given day. The market is neither monolithic nor consistently composed of the same players.
There is some truly good news about some real fundamentals, but the global debt issue remains unresolved. Global political scene (read: North Korea) looks like a powder keg. And while we think we know how to explain the downslope of the flash crash, no one has yet explained the upslope to my satisfaction. Nothing about the behavior of this market seems sane or stable. So who’s relentlessly “in” when things look so dicey? Cowboys, naifs, and central bank avatars? That’s not a group I’d valorize, without serious qualification, with the title of “market.”
June 14th, 2010 at 1:21 pm
May port traffic in the Los Angeles area came in at the second strongest month in port history.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-ports-20100612,0,2315402.story