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Tonite I will be on Fast Money on CNBC for the full hour, discussing with the crew:
-Risk Trade is coming off ?
- Double Dip
- Uh-oh, Financial regulation is on the ropes — again.
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
"Overall household indebtedness is up from $7 trillion to almost $10 trillion since 2000. On this sum, we estimate, the American consumer has an annual interest bill of more than $500 billion; a sum, by the way, that vastly exceeds his current income growth." —Kurt Richebacher
"The Greek offer is not sufficient and they have to go away to come up with a revised plan," said a spokesman for the German Finance Ministry. The Greeks must first have a plan that satisfies the Germans which this comment states they clearly don't yet and then the Greek Parliament will vote on it this weekend. This said, whatever package gets voted on in Greece is basically an up or down vote on euro membership so we are entering another uncertain weekend for global markets. A failed vote will likely lead to a hard default which may be what...
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June 29th, 2010 at 6:19 pm
I’ve watched CNBC and “Fast Money” many a time. But I think a promotion is in order: Brian Williams at “NBC Nightly News” needs a better go-to person on the economy than Diane Swonk, BR. As memory serves, Diane was far too bullish and missed the on-set of the last recession. While that’s okay for ‘the suits’ who make up her peers on The Street, for The Main Street crowd Brian Williams speaks to, he needs someone better. Here’s to hoping NBC Nightly News ‘comes a calling’!
June 29th, 2010 at 6:47 pm
S&P 475, here we come. Everything from mid 90′s is a bubble. Illusion, delusion, lies, and debt.
We spent it all, we had our cake and our kids’s cakes. We danced like Fat Chuck while the Piper played. Now we pay. We are, to be polite, fornicated.
June 29th, 2010 at 6:58 pm
Good show!
I also enjoyed Gary Shilling.
I’m in the double-dip camp myself. Falling home prices + slowing global economy – government stimulus = double-dip…
June 29th, 2010 at 7:01 pm
Another significant negative, already reflected somewhat in consumer sentiment, is the wealth effect from falling stock market. And Republicans are licking their chops as Obama’s approval ratings plummet…
June 29th, 2010 at 7:02 pm
Mr R- good appearance and nice chart of the crossovers; Can you post it on your site?
Have you changed your opinion of CNBC by your appearance or are you just appearing
on Fast Money? I got your point on the moving averages: short term bad but long term ok?
June 29th, 2010 at 7:20 pm
I’m a “Fast Money Junkie”…even though I’m not a trader. I’ve said before in “comments” on this site that my faves are Gary Kamainski, Gary Shilling, and Melissa Lee (who does a great job with that show…running it TIGHT)
I am glad to see you are BACK IN FOLD ARMS of CNBC…Barry!
Your voice is needed and whenever you appear your “calm demeanor” reminds me of the old CNBC Days when Stocks would drop and they would call in Ron Insana and Peter Lynch to “calm the raging bests” of the JP-6′s or whatever they call the “Old Cautious Investors…not Traders” out there in the “RAMP THE MONEY HINTERLANDS, these days.
BR …you are now the “New Annointed” and you wear that mantle with fame and all that goes with it with the rest of the “Bear Market in a Bull Market Advocates” ….like Shilling and Kaminski and the rest…….
It was GREAT TO SEE YOU…and your commentary was incredibly prescient…and so were the rest of the “Cautionaries” that were on “Fast Money.”
Also watched your “Re-Emergence” on Kudlow that a poster here put out last night and the link. And, that, indeed was also and Excellent Watch!
Good to see You BACK….
But…beware of the Peter Lynch, Ron Insana Syndrome…………because they PUMP YOU UP…and then…….you are no longer important.
Long time CNBC watcher here.
STILL…YOU DONE GOOD! ! HIT THE “SWEET SPOT” for some on your Blogosphere posters….for TRUTH TELLING!
Lot’s of us have little faith in anything these days………but you DID GOOD on that SHOW…and I still give CREDS to Melissa Lee….she is truly delightful in her SNARK and TIGHT RUN of “Fast Money!” Creds to her..although she probably doesn’t control who “Appears” on her show…….
Good to see Ya’…It was “old news” to viewers of your Web Site…but you got YOUR VOICE OUT THERE!
June 29th, 2010 at 7:31 pm
It was the first time I ever watched that show, and one of my first times watching CNBC, although I sometimes listen to CNBC in the morning on XM radio. I too was impressed with Melissa Lee…
June 29th, 2010 at 8:27 pm
So, Barry…
The data does not support a double dip recession? Man, I hope you’re looking at the right data….
June 29th, 2010 at 8:30 pm
As I have said repeatedly, I am not saying that a double dip won’t happen — I just do not see any evidence (yet) of anything other than weaker growth. 1.5-2.5% or so.
Maybe we have a double dip, maybe we don’t — but as of today, the data is not there yet.
Ask me again in 3 months, maybe you will get a different answer . . .
June 29th, 2010 at 8:38 pm
I wonder which one of those bozos has lost the most money since the show started. I remember Najarian looking like he was going to cry during the 2008 bloodbath. Haha. All of the regs on that show are awesome contrarian indicators.
June 29th, 2010 at 8:44 pm
Andy T Says:
June 29th, 2010 at 8:27 pm
So, Barry…
The data does not support a double dip recession? Man, I hope you’re looking at the right data….
———-
Andy…you might not understand “NUANCE”….Barry’s a Tech/Chart Guy who never moves unless his Analysis and Charts and Numbers tell him to do it.
I’m assuming you also are a “Tech Chart, Guy” from reading you for awhile.
Maybe your difference is…that your “personal charts” differ! BR has not been far off what Andy T and those who broke off from thsi site some months ago have been predicting.
It seems you all go at it from different parameters and use your own chart. Barry isn’t as big a bear as you “break offs” are……..but, he also isn’t a BULL….he just waits a bit to see what his analysis tells him. Many of you are RP/Elliot Wavers and variations in between.
I love to read ALL OF YOU! …but, BR…seems to be closer in his analysis (many times) as to my own experience. Folks follow closer to who they feel is in sync with that they are viewing.
Different Strokes …for Different Folks in the Markets, maybe?
All is good… Because who is PERFECT given the Crazy times we live in?
June 29th, 2010 at 8:59 pm
The only question is: does any government on the planet have enough powder left in their “imaginary bank accounts” for a stimulus program? And please government people “keynesians/supply siders” (same thing in the end, so no straw-hat arguements please) don’t tell me that your bank account is different then ours – what I’m a bad grand-parent because I don’t ask my grand-kids for money???
June 29th, 2010 at 9:15 pm
I think the show is pretty lame. None of the regulars are willing to discuss the obvious fraud in the system, and how the bondholders of the banks were bailed out at taxpayers’ expense.
The show was much better when Dylan Ratigan was the host.
And it’s disgusting how CNBC tries to dress Melissa Lee in revealing clothing because their ratings keep declining. People don’t watch that show to look at women, they do so for the information. If they wanna see good looking women there are several other channels to watch, plus the internet.
June 29th, 2010 at 9:20 pm
@Justin
If you let your grandkids starve, freeze, or go naked…yes, you are a bad grand-parent.
June 29th, 2010 at 9:22 pm
So according to the GOP, the financial crisis was an “ant” and the Financial Reform Bill is a “nuclear weapon” that is way too draconian:
“”This is killing an ant with a nuclear weapon. There are faults in our regulatory system, some in terms of transparency, most as a result of ineffective enforcement by the bureaucracy who have no idea what these financial products look like today. That could’ve been fixed, but that’s not what we have here.” — John Boehner
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line/2010/06/boehner_explains_why_finreg_is.html
June 29th, 2010 at 9:30 pm
@franklin411, read it again – I’m the one going staring, freezing and going naked!!!!!
June 29th, 2010 at 9:33 pm
On a different note: “IMF mulls new crisis-lending instruments.” Were is there money coming from?? What is it, one ponzi on top of another ponzi! Tell me we don’t need a God to punish these people? And I’m not religious!!!
June 29th, 2010 at 9:35 pm
@Justin
I’ll take your word for it, but frankly the statement could be more clearly worded! =)
June 29th, 2010 at 9:36 pm
~~~~~~~
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/06/double-dip-or-just-a-soft-patch/
So then why all this sturm und drung? Newsweek’s Dan Gross sums up the cause of the residual bearishness of the dismal set:
“The concern about a double dip is largely a function of what I’d call residual bearishness. Stung by excessive optimism in 2007, the econo-pundit community remains in a reflexive, dour crouch. Since it began in the spring of 2009, this recovery has been widely disbelieved and dismissed. Fretting about the double dip is as much about where we’ve been as where we are.”
~~~~~
“As I have said repeatedly, I am not saying that a double dip won’t happen…”
But you have pooh poohed it a bit.
June 29th, 2010 at 9:49 pm
@franklin411
point taken. I’ll try to be more erudite! lol
June 29th, 2010 at 9:50 pm
Double-dip is common sense, just as the first dip was.
It all depends upon which data you look at. If you look at coincident indicators, well the consumer confidence indicates that a double-dip could very well be underway. If you look forward, housing indicates a double dip. And if you happen to consider Europe and China, well then it’s a no-brainer. (So what data are you looking at?)
There is something to the Dan Gross / Myr point that people are skittish. But that just makes a double dip all the more likely sooner rather than later.
The second wave is upon us. The fundamentals suck (10% unemployment, political impotence). The psychology sucks. Bring on the deflation — I’m up to my ears in Treasuries!
June 29th, 2010 at 10:04 pm
The economy might not double dip but the stock market very well could. Booyah!
June 29th, 2010 at 10:14 pm
On “double dip” v “slow down” would it be too kooky of me to suggest that we’re still in one big dip? That RGDP and NGDP and inflation are all being gamed a little and the result is that RGDP has not yet gone positive. That we’re been in a less bad period that we’re going into a less, less bad period and that the stock market is bouncing around like a puppy on crack with about as much connection to the real economy. When we see net job creation and when the pre-Clinton RGDP numbers are positive we’ll be out of the “dip”. ‘Till then it’s just dippy and dippier to me…
June 29th, 2010 at 10:26 pm
“Maybe we have a double dip, maybe we don’t — but as of today, the data is not there yet.
Ask me again in 3 months, maybe you will get a different answer . . .”
Fantastic.
“Andy…you might not understand “NUANCE”….Barry’s a Tech/Chart Guy who never moves unless his Analysis and Charts and Numbers tell him to do it.”
Um. Ok.
June 29th, 2010 at 10:37 pm
BR @ 9:20
wow dude- quite the bullshit artist- I guess you’ll give a projection once it’s confirmed- it’s alright though- it’s tough taking a stance- that way people can call you on it-better to be vague and non-committal- that’s what real men do
~~~
BR: Yes, that is me — a long history of vague, unopinionated commentary.
Here’s a crazy idea — when I don’t know something, I say “I DONT KNOW.” Why is that so hard to grasp?
June 29th, 2010 at 10:58 pm
@call me ahab
That is what happens with fame! In the mean time I can’t sleep, I’m feeling like Paulson is going to come out of retirement and fuck me again if I try to short!
June 29th, 2010 at 11:02 pm
Barry- I believe CNBC allows embedding. Why not post links to the appearance?
~~~
BR: Its that whole linear time line thing.
I posted this before the show. It takes them a few hours for them to get the video up on line.
June 29th, 2010 at 11:09 pm
Andy and Ahab,
If you have never done live TV, you should give it a try before being so hyper-critical.
As someone who used to do it a lot as part of a positon I held, I can tell you its quite nerve wracking andmuch harder than it appears.
June 29th, 2010 at 11:34 pm
I was in the double dip camp, but now I have too much company. My guess is now just slower growth only, no double dip through 2011.
~~~
BR: The double dip is a crowded trade . . . I have some words on that coming up later today . . .
June 30th, 2010 at 5:48 am
PDS writes: “Gee BR…for someone who has been quite critical in past of the MSM…u seem to be cozying up to them quite nicely!”
My day job is running a research and asset management shop. Part of that job includes doing marketing, media, promotion. That is the nature of this business, and I try to do it with integrity and honesty.
June 30th, 2010 at 7:32 am
“Here’s a crazy idea — when I don’t know something, I say “I DONT KNOW.” Why is that so hard to grasp?”
Now, THAT would have been a refreshing thing to see on CNBC!
Because, for most of the people on CNBC that is probably the correct answer: “I don’t know. This evidence suggests no double dop while the screaming Treasuries and Dollar suggests something else. All in all, it’s a mixed picture and I just don’t know.”
The problem, of course, is that’s the sort of answer the doesn’t get you invited back….
@Dylan Fan
I wasn’t being critical of anything here….my original comment was “Man, I hope your looking at the right data….” It was a fairly innocuous comment and in no way an undressing of BR’s premise that the evidence doesn’t support a double-dip. As a member of this society, I really do “hope” that he’s got it right and there is no other recession, because this is no fun.
As a trader, I could give a rat’s ass if we have a double dip or not. The market will tell you that before the “data” does, so all the conversation is “mental masturbation,” as Barry might say.
June 30th, 2010 at 9:34 am
Barry,
when you say,
how have you come to the conclusion that the data aren’t there yet to indicate a “double dip”? Is this statement founded on some solid statistical analyses of a specific set of data, which are indicative for an impending recession? Or is this rather a gut feeling interpretation of a random stream of data?
So, if you say this, what flaw do you see in Hussman’s analysis on which his recession warning in his latest weekly market comment is based? You must see an analytical flaw there. Otherwise you have a problem. The result of his analysis and what you say can’t be both true at the same time.
~~~
BR: I agree with this explanation from http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/06/ecri-weekly-leadinbg-indicators-widely-misunderstood/” rel=”nofollow”>Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji — they are referring to the ECRI WLI, but the sentiment about a Double Dip can be applied more broadly
June 30th, 2010 at 11:26 am
Barry,
Hmm, I would say you have dodged both questions. I still don’t know on what data you base your positive statement that these data don’t show an imminent recession yet and how you come to your conclusion. Your statement implies that there are data and criteria from which this could be seen. Or what you think what the flaw is in Hussman’s analysis.
And as for Achuthan’s and Banerji’s statement: “A slowdown in U.S. economic growth is imminent, but a new recession is not.”
Unfortunately, it isn’t transparent what exact criteria they use, based on which, if these criteria were fulfilled, they would say a recession was imminent. They missed to call the recession in December 2007, although they acknowledged earlier than others that there was a recession in 2008 then.
In contrast, Hussman lays out the set of criteria that has to be fulfilled to show an imminent recession and which has, according to him, never failed so far, at least not within the statistical sample he uses. I see that he delivers strong statistical evidence for a high probability for a recession that is impending or has started already. Of course, one can’t fully exclude the possibility that the combination of criteria will fail this time for the first time. But this possibility is included when one says there is a high probability. I think it needs a little bit more than just to have another “opinion” to refute this analysis and the validity of the conclusion from it.
June 30th, 2010 at 12:51 pm
From a business perspective I completely understand why Barry is out doing entertainment shows like “Fast Money”. It needs to be done. I am really impressed he is also here on the blog defending himself. I love his blog and thankful it exists. Where’s Cramer publicly holding himself accountable for all the bs he’s spewed over the years? Crickets crickets.