Contrarian Take on the November 2010 Elections
Regular readers know I don’t particularly like squishy thinking or herd behavior. As such, it is no surprise that I am not a fan of politics. With the November elections less than 5 months away, I am bracing myself for the usual foolishness that accompanies such events.
There is one thing worth mentioning: Over the past few weeks, I have seen quite a few articles that make up the heart of the consensus viewpoint. And that consensus seems to be that we will see the usual by-election year gains by the out of power party, and the resulting gridlock will be good for the markets, and that will be the impetus for a strong new rally.
However, I see a very real possibility of the consensus being wrong, and any one of several surprises occurring. This came to me after reading a run of Bloomberg articles several days in a row:
Caroline Baum discussed why people hate incumbents — except for their own: Throw the Bums Out as Long as My Bum Stays Put (July 15 2010).
The public is smarter than perhaps we give them credit for: (especially since we hardly hear about W. anymore): Americans Blame Bush, Not Obama, for Deficit, Jobs, Afghan War (July 16 2010)
Lastly, I saw this: Obama’s Bull Market Intact as Gridlock Signals Gains (July 19 2010)
What happens when you combine these 3 articles? What do people expect, and what might Mr. Market do to surprise that? Is the consensus likely to be right? What is the most expected outcome? What might really shake up the consensus viewpoint?
What say ye?
>
Source:
Throw the Bums Out as Long as My Bum Stays Put
Caroline Baum
Bloomberg, July 15 2010
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=axwoWWEeGkGE
Americans Blame Bush, Not Obama, for Deficit, Jobs, Afghan War
John McCormick and Catherine Dodge
Bloomberg, July 16 2010
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a_9nTgFReJXY&
Obama’s Bull Market Intact as Gridlock Signals Gains
Kelly Bit and Lynn Thomasson
Bloomberg, July 19 2010
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aMCz8xwfrQXE&pos=10
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July 19th, 2010 at 7:11 pm
You should run a pool to see how many times pundits utter the phrase:
This is the most important election in our lifetimes!
I’ve heard that phrase every US election for over a decade now :)
July 19th, 2010 at 7:16 pm
All depends on getting dems motivated to vote – I think the dems actually have a lot to run on, both in their own accomplishments (love them or loathe them, took some major political grease to get them done) or their opponents increasingly public stupidity…
Watch David Gregory try to get his Republican guests to tell him what they would cut, for example:
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2010/07/has-the-gop-hit-a-wall/59987/
July 19th, 2010 at 7:18 pm
hahahahhahaha- BR showing your stripes again I see-
you try to come off as Mr. Independent-
I call bullshit on that- why would American’s blame Bush for Obama carrying on the same Bush policies-? He comes in on the change mantra- where the fuck is it already?
How about the dude is clueless- from his very first picks for advisors and department Secretaries- contrarian?
How about wishful thinking. . . .
~~~
BR: Why would America blame Bush for the results of two terms of incompetence, crony capitalism, radical deregulation, a trillion dollar war of choice in Iraq, enormous unfunded Tax cuts (AKA deferred tax in creases), a new trillion dollar liability in entitlements, dismantling regulatory authorities in minerals and gas, etc.
Those crazy Americans! What are they thinking, trying to hold W accountable for his 8 years in office.
July 19th, 2010 at 7:31 pm
Have to second Ahab’s points — about BR’s biases showing thru (you never miss an opportunity to whack at Bush and his admin)
BO is a horror show for business and the working middle class. Peggy Joseph has had the last laugh.
Sadly, the voting public is perhaps even stupider than we give them credit for — letting MSM and the Internet telling them what they think.
~~~
BR: I have been very critical of Obama’s economic policies (see this). And he has a long way to go to catch up to W’s track record.
But just because I whack Bush doesn’t mean he doesn’t deserve it. His entire adminstration was a cluster fuck from start to finish.
Oh, and in 2000, I supported McCain.
July 19th, 2010 at 7:32 pm
This link is instructive: http://www.columbian.com/news/2010/jun/13/awaiting-the-anti-incumbent-tsunami/
The money quote (from Rachel Maddow) : “In New Jersey … 13 incumbents on the ballot … all of them won,” Maddow said Wednesday night. “In California, a whopping 52 incumbents … each and every one of them winners.” She also found 11 incumbents in Virginia, four in Iowa, three in Arkansas, two each in South Dakota and Maine and one each in Montana and North Dakota … and not one had been swept away in the anti-incumbency tsunami.
Flipping 39 seats to the R’s to take control of the house will be tall order based on what we’ve seen so far this year.
July 19th, 2010 at 7:47 pm
Mike is wrong-
here is the “money quote” from our man in SF’s link-
Unmentioned until now is the possible impact of the national economy on this year’s election. An Associated Press story last week began, “For the first time since the beginning of the recession, economic growth — modest and fragile, but growth nonetheless — has spread to every corner of the country.” For many voters, a nice, new jingle in the pocket could be louder than any tsunami siren.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha . . .
July 19th, 2010 at 7:51 pm
I can’t say much BR because I can’t read the first few sentences of your entry. There is a seriously annoying GE pop up that intrudes the space in a way that I cannot see the beginning. And, I cannot get rid of the damn thing. At least I can’t figure out how to get rid of the stupid thing. I hate GE for this. And, I hate pop up ads on blog sites.
July 19th, 2010 at 7:53 pm
Does it really even matter who “wins” at this point? The rest of us continue to lose even more with each election. Yawn. Count me out on this year’s festivities. I have better things to do with my time and dime.
July 19th, 2010 at 7:54 pm
After entering a comment, the shitty GE ad finally disappeared.
Here’s a contrarian thought (maybe) in re: elections. What happens if we see a epic upset and huge turnover. What if we see the Dems take a serious beat down a la the 1994 Elections. Is the market expecting that?
July 19th, 2010 at 7:58 pm
The Dems prospects are shrinking as fast as the leading indicators. Here’s a real contrarian view: The GOP will take both houses in November.
July 19th, 2010 at 8:00 pm
What with the gerrymandering that has taken place with the acquiesence, if not approval, of both parties, I think Baum is likely to be right. I don’t watch TV, so I don’t know what the ads and pundits are saying, but my guess is that the Republicans will, once again, be outmaneuvered. *sigh*
I’m not yawning though – I think the last two years of industry takeover, bailouts, 2000+ page legislation that Congresspeople haven’t read is about all we can take before we do collapse. Don’t believe me? Do what I’m doing – read Robert Harris’ historical fiction novels about Cicero’s life. Bet you’ll be as depressed as I am.
July 19th, 2010 at 8:04 pm
Oh, also – I think Republicans are being set up for a great, big “nyah, nyah, nyah,” after the election.
July 19th, 2010 at 8:07 pm
@AT: My guess is the answer on that question is a resounding “no”.
July 19th, 2010 at 8:09 pm
mannwich, i believe, is the closest. given the rate at which barry will legislate by fiat, congress will become moot.
just to start the hopeful trend, dan burton is my congressman and up for re-election. he has received my vote in the past but will not receive my vote this time. but neither will his opponent. does that count as half a vote?
July 19th, 2010 at 8:10 pm
VP Biden on Sunday talk show predicted Democrats would hold strong in November.
What a curse!
Not sure what the curse will hit, but why can’t he keep his mouth shut?
July 19th, 2010 at 8:20 pm
Andy T, try a browser with a good adblock extension, such as Firefox or Chrome. (I had no idea this blog has ads — never seen one.)
July 19th, 2010 at 8:20 pm
The Democrats will hold.
Any current voter anger will dissipate by November or be bought off with new social programs. The Republicans will pick up a few, yet nominal seats that will do nothing to tip power away from the Democrats.
The current “rah-rah” by the one or two Republicans thinking they’ll broom out the Dems is the “same old-same old” media crisis factory generating stories from a few Night Train swilling Right wing kooks who gave up making crop circles and took up political blogging. Just more media eye wash to make them look “balanced” by giving the Right some hope.
The Dems hold. The Republicans fail.
July 19th, 2010 at 8:21 pm
Most voters missed the post-March ’09 run after losing wealth in real estate. People are beginning to realize how poor they are at investing. They’re looking to blame someone.
Politicians stirring up nonsense about computers “causing” the May 6th volatility just makes voters feel cheated, doesn’t help the pols look good because financial reform has not been explained (voters think it “won’t work.” …just like health care reform “won’t work” and the stimulus “didn’t work.”)
Even an August-November rise in equities won’t help marginal incumbents because the accompanying rise in interest rates will kill the typical investor’s bond-heavy allocation …and they’ll “feel” they were duped again.
July 19th, 2010 at 8:28 pm
2010 US Midterms – 2010 US House of Representatives Control
The Republicans to control the House of Representatives after 2010 Congressional Elections.
Intrade has it at 56, bit better than half.
July 19th, 2010 at 8:32 pm
Jack says-
Any current voter anger will dissipate by November or be bought off with new social programs.
you go Jack- nothing like a “chicken in every pot” to get the disenfranchised on your side
VD-
interesting analysis
July 19th, 2010 at 8:37 pm
For what it’s worth, I DO think BR might be onto something here. After all, it’s not as if conventional “wisdom” (namely by the punditry) in many, many areas hasn’t already been taken out to the woodshed recently. Why not again?
July 19th, 2010 at 8:44 pm
Barry,
First, there is nothing contrarian in your thoughts about the elections. From what I read and watch, there are as many pundits predicting big GOP gains as there are for Dems to keep the majority. Same about the headlines – one can find any number of headlines to define the prevailing opinion and then become a contarian by claiming an opposite but also widely held opinion. Second, going into politics is not your strongest suite. On many occasions I see that in comments people deny your politically “independent” claim. Not knowing you, I cannot say nor even care whether you indeed are independent or not but I do see why some people get upset. While it is true that you criticize both sides, at times your tone and style differently paint your critique. If it’s unintentional, you need to do better to convey your independence. I like your blog regardless of your political preference or lack thereof. Maybe it is because to me both parties are easily bought and equally inept, although there are a few individuals on both sides that seem to be better than others. The rest is just a show.
July 19th, 2010 at 8:46 pm
Fox News thinks that the Republicans will win. As the top US News Channel, Fox can’t be wrong can it? Anyway, I watched 2 Republicans have a very detailed debate on the subject and they concluded overwhelmingly that the Dema are toast.
Sigh………………………
July 19th, 2010 at 8:49 pm
How about a pot in every chicken?
July 19th, 2010 at 8:50 pm
@philipat: Not that it matters, but this from the same people who thought Obama had no chance, NO CHANCE of even beating Hillary. I think I’ll get my “news” and “information” elsewhere, thank you very much.
July 19th, 2010 at 8:51 pm
I watched 2 Republicans have a very detailed debate on the subject and they concluded overwhelmingly that the Dems are toast.
Philipat-
nothing liked unbiased opinion- right?
lol
July 19th, 2010 at 8:52 pm
The punditry is now so fully removed from the average person, how can they possibly even have the remotest idea what’s going to happen? Virtually none of them hang out with average people on a regular basis, so how would they know what’s going on in that mystery land? Isn’t that disconnect from reality in the punditry patently obvious by now? If there’s anything that’s obvious, it’s that, IMO.
July 19th, 2010 at 8:53 pm
1. The Democrats will lose some seats because the economy is crap, and for no other reason. Does this make any logical sense? Maybe so, maybe not, but it will happen, regardless.
2. The Democrats were bound to lose seats anyway, even if they performed perfectly the last 2 years. The fact is, they overachieved in the last couple elections. There will be a significant regression to the mean, regardless.
3. The Democrat base is not pleased with the Democrats right now, and the base is letting the pollsters know it. This is the sign of a healthy party, actually. When October rolls around, the support will firm up _some_, because it always does. Especially when they consider the alternative …
4. The Republicans don’t have one clue how to solve any of the problems facing the country, and this will become more and more clear as more and more people ask the Republicans, “So, what’s your plan then?” Answer: They don’t have the first clue. Evidence: Please see Entire Bush Administration. Independents may not be crazy about Obama, Reid, et al., but they will quickly remember their dislike for McConnell, Boehner, et al. Quickly. The Tea Party Crazy will help (loudly) drive this home, making it difficult for more moderate / corporatist Republicans to massage their message with vague and nonthreatening homespun inanities, like “compassionate conservatism” and “a kinder, gentler nation”.
5. An election has never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever been won on Deficits. Never ever. Why? Because Americans just don’t give a shit. Sure, sure, they know they are supposed to hate deficits, the same way they hate commies and brown people, but they aren’t going to drive the Democrats out of power because of Deficits. That is ludicrous. Please find me one election that was won on Deficits.
I therefore predict that the Dems will lose a small and significant number of seats but will maintain control of Congress, and it will be for two of the most prosaic reasons: 1) regression to the mean, and 2) shitty economy. The Republican effort is ultimately inconsequential, and maybe even beneficial to the Democratic cause.
The question then is: How will a run of the mill election driven by run of the mill mid-term mechanics change the markets? My prediction: not much. Because nothing much will have changed.
July 19th, 2010 at 8:56 pm
@blueoysterjoe: I pretty much agree with all of that.
July 19th, 2010 at 8:56 pm
It would be amusing if the electorate zigs when the pundits predict a zag – sort of like the stock market. Most predictions are for the Repubs to make large gains and after all that is expected normally after a President of the other party is elected.
As I sit here under a tornado warning in the Boston area with torrential rains coming down and non-stop lightning, I guess anything is possible.
July 19th, 2010 at 8:59 pm
This is a fine exhibit as to why people just loathe most politicians and the political process today.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/matt-taibbi/blogs/TaibbiData_May2010/182561/83512
July 19th, 2010 at 9:00 pm
@blueoysterjoe:
Agreed. Dems lose small number of seats, but nothing that will engender Republican domination.
July 19th, 2010 at 9:01 pm
Well one thing is for sure…
If you keep putting up POLITICAL threads (3 per day is what you’d need)… You might…
“mess around and get a triple double”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWfbGGZE07M
= 3 threads with 10 or more comments… (Not that any will be as fly as this one)…
Hey BR… Is there a FATBURGER in the Hamptons?… CV is AXskin y’all…
July 19th, 2010 at 9:03 pm
The GOP will have far better luck in 2014 as pre-partum depression begins to set in.
July 19th, 2010 at 9:04 pm
The way the GOP wins elections is by having highly paid liars like Ross Douthat:
‘The Roots of White Anxiety’
“…This provides statistical confirmation for what alumni of highly selective universities already know. The most underrepresented groups on elite campuses often aren’t racial minorities; they’re working-class whites …”
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/19/opinion/19douthat.html
…au contraire, Douthat, you GOP media spinning tool. here’s what the author, Thomas Espenshade says about the one chapter in the study where they MODELED the applications process:
“…We develop equations that link the probability of being admitted to such things as SAT scores, to whether you’re a recruited athlete, to what social class background you’re from, to what racial or ethnic group you belong to, to whether you’re a U.S. citizen, what kind of high school you attended and so forth. And people have a tendency to look at these results and say, “Aha! That is how the admission process at these elite schools works!” It’s not necessarily true.
“…What we have done through these statistical equations is to say it’s AS IF this is how admission officers were deciding whom to admit. We don’t have the experience of knowing precisely how these admission committees work, because I’ve never actually sat in on an admission committee. But I’m convinced they don’t have an equation like this and say, “OK, if you are Hispanic, you get a certain number of points; if your SAT scores are in this category, you get a certain number of points,” right down the list.
http://www.princeton.edu/main/news/archive/S26/34/81K42/index.xml?section=research
You believe these GOP media machines liars and you’re a sucker.
July 19th, 2010 at 9:05 pm
Sure, sure, they know they are supposed to hate deficits, the same way they hate commies and brown people
you are a complete fucking idiot-
let your own impression slip into your “unbiased” opinion-
did i mention you are an idiot?
July 19th, 2010 at 9:06 pm
Over the past 17 midterms, the President’s party has lost an average of 28 House seats and 4 Senate seats. They would have to lose a lot more than 28 to lose the House. 1994 was a doozy when the D’s lost 54 seats to Newt Gingrich. Newt and Bill made a good team, until Bill got caught with his pants down. Literally.
The best thing that could happen to Obama would be for a redux of 1994 and the Rs to take control. Then, they could snipe off 10% of the Dems (moderates) and get some stuff done (like Welfare reform under Bill/Newt). Obama could then unburden himself from the lefist rebels in his own party and be a real leader. Right now, you can’t 1 republican vote. But, if you had R’s in control, they could easily snipe 10% of the Ds.
July 19th, 2010 at 9:08 pm
We need a legitimate 3rd party that will end our welfare-warfare state.
http://theburningplatform.com/blog/2010/07/19/welfare-warfare-featured-article/
July 19th, 2010 at 9:09 pm
I like Coke. You like Pepsi. What we really need is the Uncola.
July 19th, 2010 at 9:10 pm
Good point, Kort. Maybe Obama is secretly hoping for a GOP win so politically they’ll also have to own part of this mess and work with him to do something about it? Just a thought…..
July 19th, 2010 at 9:15 pm
Look at the data from 2008.
Democrats stand to get obliterated in the House.
Polls mean nothing right now. Statistics have shown most people either make up their minds early (Partisans) or make up their mind in the last two weeks (Independents).
But House seats are often won based on a few thousand votes.
Look at any House Seat from 2008 and it’s clear as daylight that the GOP can win many races based on 1) Democrats are disillusioned and, 2) Republicans are pissed off and, 3) Independents just don’t like the status quo.
People will say whatever on a phone poll question but only the people that get out and vote are counted (and some that fill out the take-home ballot). This is a typical year for Dems to sit at home, Repubs to get out and vote, and Indies to drag their ass to the booth and vote for “that other guy/gal.”
So I think the pendulum really stands to swing in the House and I don’t really know or care about the Partisan Points. Just seems the data favors the GOP.
The ONLY reason I have looked at this is because the House controls the spending. If the GOP wins the House they WILL cut spending. They WILL NOT be able to keep taxes from rising when the Bush Tax Cuts expire.
Now, what happens in a weak economy when the government stops spending and raises taxes?
July 19th, 2010 at 9:16 pm
Kort, I can sort of an envision a ’94 outcome right now. The problem with the GOP is they suck just as much as Dems, but can’t seem to come with some “clear” talking points/”solutions” to capitalize on the Dems clear failures/overreach. If they (GOP) can somehow crystalize the ideas surrounding personal freedom, responsibility and accountability and create a decent platform, they’ll pull off upsets around the country.
July 19th, 2010 at 9:21 pm
Lest sarcasm not be widely practised in the US, and G*d forbid, should anyone think I was being serious…………
My point being that with the drivel passing for commentary accessed by mainsteam America these days, who knows what Joe Public thinks. Even if you ask him he doesn’t know. Perhaps time for the Teabaggers and Sarah Peabrain to make another stand on behalf of the clueless? She could have another go at those Liberal East Coast media elites which, as Fox contributor, would of course be totally unbiased.
Anyway, if asked to stick a pin in Washington DC on a map, the average American is just as likely to select Warsaw. Which in fact might be a better place to send Congress. On a one way ticket with an entry-only Visa. A great way to increase the average IQ of both countries simultaneously. No. sorry,that’s unfair to the Poles
No, seriously though, Fox may be onto something with its apparently emotionally charged debates between folks with same opinion. It’s a new take on a debate and makes it much easier for Joe P to decide?
Sorry for the heavy sarcasm aimed at the US, and please feel free to have a go at my home country the UK (I did, and left!) but as an outside observer trying to make any sense of it all, it can be really difficult. It makes me sad because everything that I love about the US seems to exist only by smoke and mirrors.
July 19th, 2010 at 9:24 pm
@ Kort
“The best thing that could happen to Obama would be for a redux of 1994 and the Rs to take control.”
Absolutely great point.
I voted Obama. I think he actually could be a uniter. But the solid majority has made Pelosi the de facto ruler of the Government. This isn’t mentioned much or discussed.
Dems get pissed when you say, “Why didn’t you guys do _____ when you had the President, the Senate, and the House? Bush did whatever he wanted with that!” But it’s true. Then the Dems get all the blame because it really is their government right now.
If the GOP had the House, that would benefit Obama BIG TIME! He would be the true leader of his party and the government and he’d be able to better use the bully pulpit to beat out some legislation in the House. Let’s hope for the best.
July 19th, 2010 at 9:30 pm
First rule of thumb:
Never ever allow lawyers near the treasury.
if politicians were honest, we wouldn’t need voters. And, if Communism and Socialism were never invented, we wouldn’t need Democrats.
And finally, especially never allow near the treasury, lawyers who also happen to be Democrat politicians.
July 19th, 2010 at 9:33 pm
@BR: Good question, or three. First part. How many will feel compelled to vote? I would say tea party is at the top of the list. And they are the elites pretending to care. But they want their property tax dropped to zero. Screw the little guy. They hate bureaucracy and waste, but they hate taxes more. So how efficient were they in their corporate jobs? Or acting jobs? Was a soap opera actress really worth that much money? Palin??????
How many are unhappy with the Senate and House? Almost everyone. Interesting times. Congressional compromise used to be seen as a strength. Now it’s a weakness. And justifiably so. See below.
How many are truly disappointed that BSO sold out to corporate America? Once again, almost everyone. Republicans might have switched parties if BSO had shown his were bigger than Hillary’s. What they learned, as a recent article pointed out, is he’s a girlie girl, to quote Arno on SNL.
LSS, this mid-term is not like any other ever. Anything can happen. There are lots and lots of disenfranchised people really angry about how many billions were thrown at billionaires, while they are still on food stamps.
When there is a weak or confused signal, politicians are at a total loss. They’re looking for BS they can hook onto.
Or if there is a strong message they can deliver. The only strong signal is cut spending. And that’s BS. Well, actually it’s not. It is the strongest signal. And the right signal. But it ain’t gonna happen.
Show me a politico that wins election on a cut spending campaign, and I’ll show you a politico that’s at the head of the earmark list. A Republican that has to take care of his friends, or a Democrat that needs funding for re-election.
July 19th, 2010 at 9:33 pm
Don’t change the players, change the game.
That’s why a 3rd party will fail – it’s the same game. Your congressmen/women are counting on your apathy to continue down the paytoplay road. Change you can believe in starts with campaign finance reform and nothing, nothing else. We have judges raising campaign funds in this country…
follow the paytoplay road, follow the paytoplay road, follow follow follow follow follow…
July 19th, 2010 at 9:40 pm
mbelardes-
If the GOP had the House, that would benefit Obama BIG TIME! He would be the true leader of his party and the government and he’d be able to better use the bully pulpit to beat out some legislation in the House. Let’s hope for the best.
I can’t wait-
go dems!!!! Go Obama!!!
they are both so cool!!!!
July 19th, 2010 at 9:47 pm
Shouldn’t the real focus be on 2012? The Dems will lose some seats but not enough to give the GOP control. What happens to the economy and the market after this November election is the real question. Times are bad but have they gotten bad enough for a sweeping GOP win this November? Will we have another financial disaster? A substantial market drop, problem in the credit markets again? I used to be a Republican, but independent now. I didn’t like McCain or Obama, so I didn’t vote.
July 19th, 2010 at 9:49 pm
Tell me what the independents are doing and I’ll tell you who wins. Dems and Repubs nominate and Independents elect. If they stay home Dems will be fine with the average losses that mid terms usually bring.
July 19th, 2010 at 9:51 pm
Umnnhhh…
I quote you often and with a great deal of respect.
Now let me respectfully suggest that you land in ‘flyover country’ and spend a few weeks. The Coasts are not exactly representative of the US. It’s Hell out here. Ask the Banks or brokers. Ask the wholesalers. Ask the hotel and restaurant owners/managers.
That may be changing, as a friend who brokers industrial machinery notes that they had an outstanding first half–the best in years. But he also mentioned that his business is ‘ahead of the curve’ by 6-12 months.
So if the economy’s reviving–whether due to Stimulus or not–it’s likely to show up after November for most people here.
July 19th, 2010 at 9:53 pm
Of course you don’t like politics…the majority wins and your brand isn’t for the majority.
The chain political bullshpit e-mails I’ve been getting are far more lame and of far less substance (birth certificates…really) than two years ago. How much of that is offset by the reality that the Democrats won’t get to ride the coattails of another Mother Of All Charity Fucks remains to be seen.
July 19th, 2010 at 9:57 pm
When polling, if the answer to the question “Do you think the GOP should gain control of the House?” is “Yes.” the follow up should be “What good would that do?”
Maybe add “What have they done in the past 2 years to make you think this way?” and “What have you seen in the past 10 years that makes you think they’ll do anything to make your life better?”
Mad about the economy? Wait ’til a few years after their “ideas” move from an obstructionist mutation of an ideology to vindicated. Nose, meet Knife.
If you vote just to punish, don’t expect the wrong track to turn right.
July 19th, 2010 at 10:04 pm
It seems like for the last month or so the consensus view has been the market/businesses/people hate uncertainty. Remove the fear of the unkown and we would all be in better shape. That, I think, is the only true consensus and its the one that will be confounded.
Nothing will change after the election and the economy will not be magically fixed. Gridlock or no Gridlock there will be no easy solutions to too much Debt (public + private), high levels of unemployment and a world bent on exporting their way out of their problems.
I often sit around trying to think how to employee all the people who are without jobs. What industry could rise and make jobs for all. The housing bubble was really a unique way of creating so many people without having a large percentage of it outsourced.
July 19th, 2010 at 10:11 pm
“Do you think the GOP should gain control of the House?” is “Yes.” the follow up should be “What good would that do?”
exactly-
Democrats forever- xoxoxoxo-
I just love the Democrats-
maybe we should have an official party-
the Democrats- yea!!!!!!!!!!!!!
July 19th, 2010 at 10:11 pm
“Do you think the GOP should gain control of the House?” is “Yes.” the follow up should be “What good would that do?”
exactly-
Democrats forever- xoxoxoxo-
I just love the Democrats-
maybe we should have an official party-
the Democrats- yea!!!!!!!!!!!!!
July 19th, 2010 at 10:16 pm
wow-
a post so nice it posted twice
it’s like Democrat Heaven-
everything we could want but twice as nice
July 19th, 2010 at 10:23 pm
“They spent a decade driving the economy into a ditch,” Obama, 48, said at a Las Vegas fundraiser on July 8 for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada. “And now they’re asking for the keys back. And my answer is, ‘no, you can’t have the keys. You can’t drive. You don’t know how to drive. You drive in the wrong direction.’”
If the Democrats stick to that message I’d say they will minimize any likely damage and retain control. In reality pols can’t do much about the economy one way or the other but people vote based on how it’s doing, as if the pols really made it go this way or that.
July 19th, 2010 at 10:26 pm
So there’s stupid signs in some of my neighbor’s yards saying “Fight Back: Vote Republican”. Really? I suppose so they can really show, again, how utterly feckless and incompetent they are at governance.
I’m hoping that the Dem’s keep it all, only because I hate them even worse, if that’s possible, than I hate the Republicans.
This country is ungovernable, no matter who is in charge. I say it’s time we call off this experiment. It’s lost its raison d’ etre. Government “of the people, by the people and for the people” long ago perished from this land. Now it’s just of the bankers, by the bankers and for the bankers. It makes not a gnat’s ass worth of difference which way this election goes.
July 19th, 2010 at 10:36 pm
alright-
unfortunately I have to go nighty night-
but let me end my evening by saying-
Go Dems!!!- They have it all together- the future of this country forever and ever-
just ask BR
July 19th, 2010 at 10:46 pm
@VennData
Are you a blog commentator? or do you just play one on TV?
July 19th, 2010 at 10:47 pm
I’m too discouraged to care :)
July 19th, 2010 at 10:49 pm
Damn Ahab,
You’re all over this thread. A nerve has been touched.
Don’t worry, though. You’ll get what you want one way or the other. The road ahead looks pretty bleak due to decades of sloth, incompetence and avarice by both parties. Soon you’ll be able graduate from putting on eye black before you venture out to crack skullz with your “quick brown fox…” skillz to actually venturing out into what once WAS America. When it all falls apart we’ll all have to push ourselves away from the keyboard and slug it out, right? Just to make sure your ready for your “role”, here’s a list for you. I don’t want you to forget anything…
http://madmaxcostumes.com/C1/mfp.htm
I know you NEEEED to box me in to feel better about yourself. It’s a typical form of self indulgence. Just mark me down as knowing a bunch of low class, divisive, destructive morons when I see them and knowing that the party that hopes to overthrown them in November is much worse.
July 19th, 2010 at 10:53 pm
@BR
The last thing I have to say is that you’re rather “selective” about the threads you decide to put up…
I’d already read two of the 3 articles that you referenced… Once again, you’re “late to the game” (ostensibly – because you’re “traveling”)…
But COME ON… Have you really stooped so low as to let BLOOMBERG authors color your thought provocation (political as it may be) on this blog?…
I’d rather think I could get more incisive journalism & commentary by tuning into the bouncing breasts of Becky Quick & Erin Burnett every morning on CNBC…
Albeit… NEITHER of those pairs of breasts bounce all that much…
July 19th, 2010 at 10:56 pm
Republicans get at least the house on an austerity campaign, but since President will still be there — gridlock. Bad news for market as it will mean the end of any new Obama free lunches (so to speak) … and if enough people don’t have mad money for mall shopping … stocks melt at some point. Which is fine by me … I don’t care how the system resets … just reset.
July 19th, 2010 at 11:00 pm
Jack Damn Says:
July 19th, 2010 at 8:49 pm
you go Jack- nothing like a “chicken in every pot” to get the disenfranchised on your side
How about a pot in every chicken?”
How about a bag of pot in every chicken? :-)
July 19th, 2010 at 11:13 pm
“Does anyone know what time it is,
Does anyone really care”
If you want to see mad howling dogs and vitriolic protestations from both partys against an idea, start talking in earnest about a Constitutional Convention… Banksters will throw Gazillions against THAT prospect.
If you want to break the political monoply, go door to door in your State and collect signatures. It won’t happen of course but it would give you something to do and another way to vent. Tea parties are for sissy little girls. The Republic is in need of a do over. Did I say Republic? Silly me. I just extend and pretend.
SPQR
July 19th, 2010 at 11:28 pm
I’m angry about all the spending and was going to vote Republican, but then I remembered that Cheney said “Reagan proved deficits don’t matter”, so that must mean the Democrats are doing the right thing…
July 19th, 2010 at 11:44 pm
@Mike in Nola 10:47 pm
“I’m too discouraged to care :)”
I think a lotta folks are in that boat. I suspect that if any election surprises occur, it will be because the turnout is so incredibly low, due to everyone being “too discouraged to care”.
One possible upshot, that will get a WHOLE bunch more media coverage than it deserves (if it happens), is that a handful of Tea Party candidates (where “handful” is between 5 and 15) get elected, SOLELY because most folks are “too discouraged to care”.
I’m still struggling with the decision of whether to vote at all. I’ve voted in every one of the past 20-some elections, and (at least) 95% of the time, the candidates I voted for failed to get elected. And when they do (as this time with BO), it turns out that I was completely wrong about either their ability to lead, or that I was simply flat-out deceived, despite having a very cynical approach to politics.
I am tempted to vote for Palin in 2012, mostly in the spirit of pulling down the walls of the temple. If this country has to crash and burn to turn it around, well, hell then, let’s get on with it.
July 20th, 2010 at 12:14 am
“I am tempted to vote for Palin in 2012, mostly in the spirit of pulling down the walls of the temple.”
Yes. Nothing like voting for an anti-intellectual media ho’ to breath new life into the “establishment”. I hear Bristol is preg again.
Pass the popcorn.
July 20th, 2010 at 12:22 am
http://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm
Party composition of the Senate from 1789 to present.
July 20th, 2010 at 12:31 am
“I don’t particularly like squishy thinking”
This is the funniest line of the post. BR, I thought “squishy” was your political philosophy? Something about constitutional rights being different for folks in Montana vs. the South Bronx.
~~~
BR: So you don’t believe that a state or city has any right whatsoever to restrict handguns? You should live in the South Bronx and say that . . .
July 20th, 2010 at 2:21 am
How did I know this thread would be filled with the usual “BR is a liberal” blather? With all the usual suspects. Honestly people – who the fuck cares? It’s like you’re all just lurking around in the background waiting for BR to slip and say something that will finally prove to the world that he is card carrying “east coast type liberal”. Seriously, do you not all see how sad that looks over and over and over again?
July 20th, 2010 at 5:16 am
All candidates backed by Ron Paul to be elected – hows that for contrarian?
July 20th, 2010 at 5:44 am
I hate politics, too. But we all as citizens need to put a clothespin on our noses and really deal with this situation before it destroys what is left of the productive society.
It deeply pains me that horse races and elections are the only things that really turn on whether it rains the day of. Pathetic. WE need, as a people, to realize what this means to our futures and get out and vote.
You people can call me an East Coast lib all you want, but you would be geographically and philosophically wrong. Campaign finance reform, term limits, strict bars on former Congress critters spending the rest of their lives trading on influence, and perhaps limits on the use of TV advertising are the only ways to change things. And I fear even those measures would just push the same self-interest into new pretzel shapes. No one does anything if they can’t make a buck at it any more – the whole concept of self-sacrifice and public service may well be dead. I’m not sure our society is set up to run as a democracy any more.
But that is the challenge. A more systemic approach is critical.
July 20th, 2010 at 6:34 am
@Thor
I think most just decided to come by and have a little fun with their old friend BR…
Frankly… BR is a man and I seriously doubt as to whether a bunch of chumps (like me) from the internet think he’s a liberal or not…
I’ve never met BR in person, but judging by his size in photos, I doubt he needs the services of a body guard…
The bottom line is, this thread directly TEASED the notion of politics (and referenced 3 “Bloomberg” articles as an attempt to tint the argument)… If you ask me, that’s like asking Cramer to say whether or not “stocks” are a good investment, or Steve Liesman whether or not the Fed is doing a good job…
The thing is, most of us are BORED AS HELL right now because the markets are in a sort of “technical limbo” (between that point of wanting to break down totally, and certain “liquidity” efforts being used to prevent or STALL it from doing just that…
This still may play out for awhile (or, it may change abruptly)… But in the mean time, there’s not a lot else to do… So from that perspective, I applaud BR for “stepping out” of the bubble and putting up a POLITICAL thread…
I’m sure that when the market is ready to become volatile again (and that the volatility actually DOES have something to do with news flow), that BR will have thread topics that are relevant to such (because BR does understand what’s relevant and what isn’t)… At that moment, the TRADERS who frequent these blogs will understand that as well, and in real time…
You? Well, you’ll understand it too (because we’ll TELL you it’s relevant)… Then you can come on and voice your opinion about who you want to defend in the argument… OK?
July 20th, 2010 at 7:02 am
I somewhat agree with Mannwhich. ie, who gets elected doesn’t really matter in the end. That’s how (some of us) think in France. And the reason why many won’t vote.
Disillusion.
July 20th, 2010 at 7:10 am
Maybe you can call it the “ignorant” voice. But when fellow french give me the argument that “people have died in order for us to get this right to choose!”.
Then what I’m telling them is:”I definitely agree. And what I believe, also, is that these same people would be willing to give their lives again today, in order to give “voting” a meaning again.
July 20th, 2010 at 7:26 am
The next election(s) will pit the incumbent useless idiots against the proven idiots, aka the dangerous idiots. Voters will choose a minimize the maximum loss strategy as idiots exist far out into the horizon, beyond which there be monsters.
July 20th, 2010 at 8:22 am
Funny, I didn’t make any predictions as to what is going to happen, other than to say I thought the consensus, whatever that is, will be surprised.
From that, some of you believed I was wrong — which I can only assume you believe the consensus will not be surprised.
July 20th, 2010 at 8:36 am
Agree about GE pop-up.
Know my congressman a bit (Dem). He’s a serious, dedicated guy and probably honest enough. Not the brightest but if he is par for the course somebody needs to investigate why, when they act as a group they seem to check their brains at the door. Has striving for “comprehensive” everything gotten us to the point where it is so complex that the representatives have to cede thinking to lobbyists, aides and bureaucrats?
I would also like a thread having to do with the “common knowledge” that the Obama administration is hostile to business and that various legislation is somehow going to increase business’ expenses and taxes (aside from allowing the Bush tax cut to expire – which is clear although this is supposedly targeted to small business even though very very few small business people I know earn anywhere near the level impacted.)
I hear talking heads and some of the above folks saying that business is not investing or hiring because of the uncertain legislative/tax impacts. No business that I have talked to (all small business) is worried about the national, or global, aspects of this. They are worried about who will buy their widgets. In other words, they are worried about top line revenue. When they see that pick up and solidify they will begin to think about hiring, etc.
So, I would like to see OBJECTIVE and TANGIBLE information on this topic. Not baseless opinions, talking points or speculation.
July 20th, 2010 at 8:49 am
BR-
your reply to my first post is absolutely true- can’t argue w/ that-
but that wasn’t my point-
should I blame my mother for the beatings that have been continued by my step mother?
in any event- it will be the independents who determine the winner- the majority always vote the same way no matter what
July 20th, 2010 at 8:53 am
@BR (8:22)
Frankly… My guess is that most of the people I hang around with in the blogosphere hold little regard for ANYTHING when it comes to the term “consensus” (as it applies to people at large)…
The only way “consensus” factors into any of my thinking is to BACKTEST my own ideas against it after the fact… As if to say… “Oh really – is that what those people were thinking”…
The most frightening moments of my life are the ones that I find that my ideas actually did conform to consensus… I have to pause and reflect deeply in those moments…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xfi4s8cjLFI&feature=PlayList&p=5853A4163845E730&playnext_from=PL&playnext=1&index=2
July 20th, 2010 at 8:56 am
I don’t see how the market will go up significantly when there are lots of motivating factors for the market to fall.
1) Market volatility will make more people sit on the sidelines or pull money out of the market
2) The pending tax increase coming Jan 1st on dividends and capital gains
A) Will prompt a lot of profit taking in the last 3 months of the year.
B) Will get additional people to move 401K money into Roth money which will have a short term bump in tax income to the FED’s but a much more difficult tax situation in the future.
3) The lame duck session of congress will have Dems voting through every 2K page bill that crosses their desk after reading the first page. This insult to intelligence will cause additional turmoil around the US in the non-ruling but literate class.
4) The media has started to turn on Obama and is no longer black listing truthful stories that show his policies or appointees in a bad light. The medias pessimism does a lot to lead the 10% of people that follow what ever the TV tells them without independent research and thought.
PS: did you see that one of the 2K page bills recently passed creates additional paperwork for anyone buying gold & silver $600 or more. Is the FED worried that people are running away from the dollar and will soon use metals to purchase items? Or are they preparing to confiscate it like they did in the 1930′s
July 20th, 2010 at 9:08 am
@JSchmid
Is the FED worried that people are running away from the dollar and will soon use metals to purchase items? Or are they preparing to confiscate it like they did in the 1930’s
The latter…
July 20th, 2010 at 9:11 am
Also (childish power on :D) I believe cvienne is somewhat of a “flam”-a-orist. Good that he doesn’t link to his “citizen journalist” website…
Man would that be a flaming nonsense. well.. would be funnier than “who’s who” political talks at least.
July 20th, 2010 at 9:13 am
Barry Ritholtz Says:
July 20th, 2010 at 8:22 am
Funny, I didn’t make any predictions as to what is going to happen, other than to say I thought the consensus, whatever that is, will be surprised.
reply:
————
Surprised consensus? If it’s not the useless idiots or the proven idiots, who is left? Will we start stratifying groups of idiots and be surprised with a black swan grouping? The imagination is boggled at this possibility. Monsters from beyond the horizon? What we need is a good Armageddon Party that campaigns on the End Of Days.
July 20th, 2010 at 9:18 am
Barry Ritholtz Says:
July 20th, 2010 at 8:22 am
Funny, I didn’t make any predictions as to what is going to happen, other than to say I thought the consensus, whatever that is, will be surprised.
reply:
————-
President Harry Reid has a nice ring, doesn’t it? I’d pay a dollar for that.
July 20th, 2010 at 9:28 am
I can’t say that the Dems are the way to go, but I can say that the Republicans put us where we are, and don’t have a remedy for what ails us other than more of the same. They will also, if given the chance, push a religious right agenda on us. Best to stay away from that kind of insanity completely (it’s the only reason I don’t support Ron Paul).
Regardless of elections, the Corporatists began taking over during the Reagan/Pappy Bush administrations, continued to consolidate under Clinton with the help of the Gingrich Congress, and sealed control of the apparatus of government under Bushco (a fact clearly demonstrated by the unwillingness to investigate or prosecute obvious crimes under the color of law that were committed by both public and private officials).
WaPo is running what might be its first piece of legitimate journalism since Watergate this week. The series tries to determine the scope and control of the huge security bureaucracy that has developed around the DHS. Clearly, our government is not in control of the various quasi-governmental entities that hold the power in this new system, as neither the executive, legislative, or judicial branches of the Constitutional government have the clearances necessary to oversee the bureaucracy.
The election can only result of the continuation of the status quo, or worse.
July 20th, 2010 at 10:34 am
@ jeff in indy;
Yes not being bothered to do your patriotic duty and figuring out who is the least unacceptable person to represent you, is counting as half a vote for each. It also counts as giving power to the extremists. Finally it bars you from any legitimate complain about what is happening to your country since you passed on the one chance you had to influence things a little bit in the right direction. But if you fail even at that, take comfort in knowing that you are not alone in combining the couch, the beer and the big screen sports event viewing, with whining and refusing to do the little you can to change what you are whining about.
@Kort
I agree, it may actually be better for Obama if the GOPsters take over the house. They would be forced to put their cards on the table and legislate rather than just saying NO and blabber out some non-specific BS about how to handle the problems. None of their most stupid proposals and unfunded tax-cuts would make it past the Senate or a Veto from Obama, but the GOPsters would be exposed as the incompetent clowns they are and Obama would become the “guarding rail” against them at the next presidential election.
@call me ahab;
My goodness kid, can you come with nothing but infantile rah-rah-rah screams?? None of the things you are so upset about are beyond a counter argument. Heck even I could come up with a few if I were in the mode to support a lost course.
@constantnormal;
What makes you think that crashing and burning will turn anything around? It’s not like that ever happened in world history. All the empires that crashed and burned took hundreds or even thousands of years to just get back to where they were just before they “crashed and burned” (if getting there at all).
July 20th, 2010 at 11:07 am
I’m not interested in the political pendulum, but I can see a lot of people not showing up at the voting booths.
Welcome to inertia.
Republicans will probably win, especially if another round of donations is announced for the banking system.
I don’t know where you expect surprises BR, it looks like money people have shifted to the Reps. (anti-business Obama campaign)
July 20th, 2010 at 11:47 am
I’m surprised that so many readers still buy into the old Dem vs Rep divide. Do you really believe in this balderdash? Can you say Reagan, Clinton, Bush, Obama?
July 20th, 2010 at 11:49 am
BR –
All emotions aside as to what result you want, you are clever to be asking this question.
The consensus is very one-sided at this point and — if it is wrong, or even if it is only partially right — then the result will certainly be a Soros-like surprise which should be acted upon —– even now, the Tea Party candidates pose a threat to Republican victory in several areas and that alone is not well perceived.
The question now would be – if there is a surprise, what do you think would happen? What markets would react, and how?
I would say that it would probably be a negative for the equity markets and dollar, since the current policies are fiscally expansionary and the perception of government action is anti-business.
Some out of the money downside protection on the equity market and dollar may be prudent before the autumn, if you can buy cheap on rallies, before the fact that there may be a surprise is generally comprehended.
July 20th, 2010 at 12:18 pm
On Morning Joe today nobody remembered that Jon Kyl (and others) had said on the Senate floor that unemployment insurance encouraged laziness until Margaret Carlson and Norah O’Donnell reminded them. O’Donnell even read from the Senate transcript. There was a “gee whiz” reaction from Buchanan and Scarborough acknowledging that if that “really happened” then the Republicans might be in trouble. Is it amazing that they 1) didn’t remember, 2) hadn’t heard it, or 3) ignored it? Not so much. If you have a firmly entrenched point of view (belief system) it’s really hard to take in data that are inconsistent with it. That’s where having good critical thinking skills is important as Barry keeps pointing out.
Is it any different with the common man? Not really. In this case, however, it’s not just an intellectual exercise where the average citizen couldn’t care less as to the outcome. This time around it’s more about real pain and you’ve got to ask whether the gored ox remembers the gorer? Yeah. I think so. And, IMO this raises the stakes so that it will be much more likely for folks to vote in November against being gored again. Selzer’s work implies that and I think she’s right. Whether the gorees turn out in sufficient numbers to make sure that their bum stays put is another question. But it clearly will not be a pushover election.
Years ago, Nixon talked about and won betting on the ‘silent majority.’ I wonder whether we might not see something like that again. I think that there’s a good possibility that the visible ‘fringes’ whether on the right or left are not representative samples of the people who will vote in November. The Republicans are just beginning to recognize this. Let’s hope they continue to be slow learners.
July 20th, 2010 at 12:26 pm
@daf48;
Yes I can say Deficit explosion (Reagan), deficit reduction (Clinton), deficit explosion and great recession (Bush light), deficit and recession stabilized (Obama). But I guess that kind of spending on your children’s credit card and people losing their income and jobs is just balderdash where you come from?
July 20th, 2010 at 12:50 pm
Is the wind shifting, not that the talking heads will say anything more than ignore it or say its an anomaly.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/141440/Democrats-Jump-Six-Point-Lead-Generic-Ballot.aspx
July 20th, 2010 at 1:16 pm
“Looking down from Olympus
On a world of doubt and fear,
Its surface splintered
Into sorry Hemispheres. “
July 20th, 2010 at 1:33 pm
I think we’ll see a net loss in democrat’s seats, but I doubt it’ll be the huge shakeup the GOP is making it out to be. Basically it’ll come down to which party is willing to support more moderate candidates at this point. The GOP is losing ground and the last rounds of state elections by in large saw the election of many center-right Republican candidates. By contrast the biggest thorn in the Democratic party’s side has been it’s own moderates, despite their clear majorities the Democrats have had trouble maintaining the kind of unified front the GOP puts up on issues. The higher ups in the DNC are going to back candidates squarely on the left for this very reason, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see some new candidates getting a lot of support against their own incumbents.
Voters will want centrist candidates with a strong emphasis on dealing with spending, unemployment and ending the war in Afghanistan. I simply do not see the DNC being as likely to do this as it goes against their overall goal. The GOP isn’t gaining much ground as is and needs a more centrist platform to secure any voters, I expect them to be more willing to run candidates that will win even if it doesn’t make the far right happy.
I don’t think people have to blame Obama or the democrats for every problem this nation faces, but there’s plenty of criticism to be dealt with their response to the situation. I haven’t seen much enthusiasm for the healthcare bill as a whole anywhere on the political spectrum, the right calls it socialism, the left is disappointed that it isn’t and the center has sneaking suspicion that they’re being screwed over once again. The stimulus bill could have been better constructed, and I largely doubt the figures put forth by the Obama administration about job saving/creation.
In general I would say that if we spend we should focus more on large public works projects similar to what FDR actually did, maybe modernizing Amtrak and extending it’s lines on the east coast, and expanding the water supply infrastructure in the SW. Obama is digging himself into a hole by calling for additional states aid, the public simply does not have sympathy for public employees that are statistically over compensated while a huge chunk of the workforce can’t even get a job.
July 20th, 2010 at 2:03 pm
1) Now, who the hell likes ‘squishy’ thinking? Then again to say that the November (4) elections are ‘less than 5 months away is a little squishy in that the elections are 108 days away or 3.6 months away. Certainly less that 5 months but also less than 12. So, BR, I guess this proves that you aren’t paying attention to the elections that much. Pretty squishy in and of itself.
2) The election consensus seems to be that the GOP will barely get a House majority but fall short of a Senate majority. So, the consensus can be wrong two ways. A) The Dems beat back the GOP, or B) The GOP wins resounding super majorities in both of the legislatures. So, you can be against the herd but you have to choose on which side of that herd you’ll be. What side are you on, BR?
July 20th, 2010 at 11:09 pm
utilizing the keen skills obtained from the evelyn woodhead sped readin’ course on these erudite comments, i have surmised that the question is, ‘to whose consensus are you referring?’ in which case, someone will surely be surprised, eh?