Nice interactive map from Dismal Scientist (Moodys) showing the state of recovery of various nations:
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click for interactive map
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Hat tip chartporn
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
"Overall household indebtedness is up from $7 trillion to almost $10 trillion since 2000. On this sum, we estimate, the American consumer has an annual interest bill of more than $500 billion; a sum, by the way, that vastly exceeds his current income growth." —Kurt Richebacher
"The Greek offer is not sufficient and they have to go away to come up with a revised plan," said a spokesman for the German Finance Ministry. The Greeks must first have a plan that satisfies the Germans which this comment states they clearly don't yet and then the Greek Parliament will vote on it this weekend. This said, whatever package gets voted on in Greece is basically an up or down vote on euro membership so we are entering another uncertain weekend for global markets. A failed vote will likely lead to a hard default which may be what...
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July 14th, 2010 at 3:15 pm
The basic assumption behind all these analyses is that aggregate expansion in economic activity is the a) normal state of affairs; and b) desirable. (Happy green for expanding economies, angry red for ones that are contracting).
We know “a” to be unsustainable over the long run (the long-term growth rate of all organisms/biological systems, etc. is necessarily zero). So should it be desirable? Questions nobody seems to be asking.
July 14th, 2010 at 3:17 pm
Hey, Rock, watch me pull a rabbit out of this map:
From the map:
Signs the economy is transition from recovery to self-sustaining expansion are becoming increasingly visible. Private job growth is accelerating and preconditions for even stronger hiring in the months ahead are falling into place. Manufacturing is strong while consumer spending and business investment are improving. Last updated: June 10, 2010.
_____________
Oops! Wrong Map!
July 14th, 2010 at 3:27 pm
Why does everyone want to keep taking the fat lady to the dance? The economies around the globe are flat on their fat asses. OK, I’ll grant you that some asian economies can afford another ounce of meat in their cup of rice.
July 14th, 2010 at 3:41 pm
@Curmudgeon
Thank you for that comment – it’s something that has been nagging at me for a while. Economics, at least the last time I studied it, assumes that infinite growth is not only possible and desireable, but essential. Otherwise you can’t inflate your way out of trouble, consume more than you produce, and do all of those other things necessary to our way of life.
Is stability really not an option?
July 14th, 2010 at 3:46 pm
Green has to get aggressive.
If I were green I would trade in ALL my cards right now and try to knock Orange out of the game. Take his cards, and try to make a move on Blue via Central America, so he doesn’t pick up 5 extra armies on his next turn.
This is precisely why you NEVER start in Australia, no matter how tempting. It pins you in.
But this is Blue’s game to lose.
July 14th, 2010 at 4:03 pm
@scharfy
How did you guess how I spent all my spare time as a teenager?
July 14th, 2010 at 4:26 pm
Just remember to never start a land war in Asia.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfWDilXZQEo
July 14th, 2010 at 4:32 pm
pairing short ewz and long oex has worked okay ytd. short ewz and long oex a little better ytd but less so over the last month. a little blue on green reversal?
July 14th, 2010 at 4:32 pm
should read ewa pairing short ewa and long oex has worked okay ytd as first trade….
July 14th, 2010 at 4:33 pm
Somehow the guy that grabs Australia always also tries to corner South America. It is only effective until Africa stops pestering Europe, or North America breaks through panama. Yes, a losing strategy unless allied with a rookie running North America.
July 14th, 2010 at 4:45 pm
Exactly what would Mexico’s and Nigeria’s economies be recovering from? Are they graduating from massively corrupt, inefficient, and recessionary to just massively corrupt and inefficient? Sheesh! What a useless waste of pixels.
July 14th, 2010 at 5:10 pm
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/01/world/americas/01peru.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss
LIMA, Peru —…Latin America,…, is experiencing robust economic growth…
…Michael Pettis, a specialist at Peking University in Beijing on China’s financial links with developing countries, said the region was especially exposed to Chinese policies that had driven up global demand for commodities, including what appears to be Chinese stockpiling of commodities.
“Within China there is a ferocious debate over the sustainability of this investment-driven growth,” Mr. Pettis said. “I’m worried that too few policy makers in Latin America are aware of the debate and of the vulnerability this creates in Latin America.”…
~~
July 14th, 2010 at 8:50 pm
As regards Latin America as presented by the MAP, I quote el gran Hector LaVoe:
Tu amor es un periódico de ayer
que nadie más procura ya leer
sensacional cuando salió en la madrugada
a mediodía ya noticia confirmada
y en la tarde materia olvidada.
Listen, a few things,
1. Granular knowledge is fundamental.
2. I was touting Brasil last year-a gente nao escutou so fica chorar
3. WRT Argentina, the popup on that inactive makes no mention of 30% inflation- for good English stuff- read Bloomberg- specifically Drew Benson, and Rodrigo Orihuela, Benson follows bonds and currency
4. Nearly Zero info on Bolivia (not a place one should necessarily seek to invest in)-that’s cuz the narrative in the US MSM is moronically anti-Morales.
5. Peru- find Kallpa Securities- they have an English site- Is the Bolsa de Valores on the verge? Llegará a saludar Huascarán al hermano Huántar?
July 14th, 2010 at 9:28 pm
Arequipa01…..
a gente nao escutou so fica chorar….
does that mean….The people who didn’t listen are crying?
You have to think that with Brazil hosting the World Cup in 2014 and the Olympics in 2016, there will be heavy infrastructure development there, eh?
July 14th, 2010 at 9:46 pm
I’ll respond later.
July 15th, 2010 at 6:06 pm
[...] HT: Barry Ritholz [...]
July 15th, 2010 at 7:18 pm
[...] From the Dismal Scientist: The status of the global recovery. (HT to Barry Ritholtz) [...]