The final July UoM confidence # was slightly better than expected at 67.8 vs the forecast of 67 and is up from the preliminary reading of 66.5 out a few weeks ago but still remains well below the 76 level in June. Economic conditions were down almost 10 pts from June and the Outlook is down 7.5 pts. One year inflation expectations fell to 2.7%, the lowest since March. Stocks are rallying well off their lows after both July data points coming in above expectations but also as I mentioned earlier, Q2 NOMINAL GDP was above forecasts and while it was heavy on government help and light on consumer spending, it wasn’t as alarming as the market made it out to seem initially. Of course 2011 is a different story when a lot of the government stimulus flames out and, with tax policy may reverse some.

Category: MacroNotes

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