Initial Jobless Claims totaled 464k, 19k above expectations and up from a revised 427k last week. The distortion of the seasonal auto shutdowns that didn’t happen at GM combined with the July 4th holiday has made the initial claims portion of the data too cloudy to analyze week to week and we thus should average the prior couple of weeks. The 4 week average is 456k, just shy of the lowest since late May but still remains very elevated for an economy that is this far into a recovery. Continuing Claims fell a sharp 223k but comes after rising 276k in the week prior. Extended Benefits fell a net 368k after a fall of 278k in the week prior and 345k the week before. This sharp drop has been more due to people falling off the rolls because of the expiration of benefits. With the extension likely to be reinstated up to 99 weeks, this trend should reverse as the labor market still remains lackluster.

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3 Responses to “With noise in the claims data, average the weeks out”

  1. franklin411 says:

    Funny how everyone focused on California leading the nation during the slide, but nobody seems to be paying attention to the fact that California is leading the nation in this recovery.

    California default notices are down 48.3% y-o-y, reaching the lowest rate in 3 years. They’re down 13.6% from last quarter.

    Port traffic at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is so strong that the shippers have had to hire part-time helpers because they don’t have enough full time employees to handle it all. June imports are 32% higher and exports rose 13% at the Port of Los Angeles, for example.

    http://mobile.latimes.com/wap/news/text.jsp?sid=294&nid=16706143&cid=16689&ith=1&title=Business
    http://articles.latimes.com/2010/jul/14/business/la-fi-ports-20100714

  2. If you look at a chart of claims, they have basically been flat for all of 2010.

    Until we dip below 400K, it’s status quo.

  3. NoKidding says:

    When was the last time the revision on the previous month’s number was positive?

    What is the average revision since 2008?

    What do the answers to those questions mean?