Yesterday, we looked at Long Term Market Cycles dating back to 1927;

Today, lets have a look at periodicity dating back to 1763. The cycle the (unknown) author posis is a repeating 16/18/20 year

Across the top is the legend “Years in which panics have occurred and will occur again.” The past panic century of dates are 1911, 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019. Except for 1981, these were all pretty good years to sell (or short) stocks.

Fun stuff . . .


click for giant graphic

Hat tip Corey

Category: Cycles, Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

20 Responses to ““Periods When to Make Money” (© 1883)”

  1. Super-Anon says:

    Had this chart not been printed the panics would have occurred exactly as predicted but publishing this chart caused the markets to discount the coming panics!

  2. super_trooper says:

    Good luck making money in 2019, the world will end in 2012

  3. Chief Tomahawk says:

    1763 & 1945 marked the end of two wars for the U.S. (well, the forerunner colonies in the first instance.)

    The 1911 increment missed the Panic of 1907, when, as Super-Anon said above, the Panic of 1911 was obviously being front-run.

  4. Petey Wheatstraw says:

    Apparently, Mr. Tritch didn’t capitalize on the cyclic predictions in the chart (may have been murdered when an irate customer, who came in looking for a cheap screw, left the store with the complementary chart, and lost everything on his subsequent investment strategy, based on same). His hardware store (chafing dishes, Hot Blast heaters, and pistols) is, apparently, defunct (probably put out of business by WalMart and the Chinese), and he is not among the big names associated with stock gains in the 19th or 20th centuries.

  5. hammerandtong2001 says:

    A little off-topic –

    There’s been a high degree of interest expressed here about HFT, and its possible role in the May “flash-crash” and what the possible implications of HFT might be. For the financial markets — especially stock markets.

    I ran across this post, which porvides some fascianting details about trading robots, alogorithms and HFT:

    The charts are provided by firm called Nanex, hq’d in the Midwest:

    Fascinating stuff — at least for me and thought I’d pass along.

    Apologies in adavnce if this groups work has been previously posted and discussed here at TBP — if it was, I missed it.


  6. ashpelham2 says:

    Looks as good as anything I’ve seen from Ibbotson or any of the big research departments have produced. I mean, all we’re talking about here is predicting the future. What’s so hard about that?

  7. JohnathanStein says:

    Where on earth did you did this up?

  8. [...] Omens are for kids. Here’s a tip of the top hat to Barry Ritholtz for unearthing this nineteenth-century great-grand-daddy among technical [...]

  9. Baby Dragon says:

    Nice chart quite impressive work.

    but for

    Picture/Chart is photo shop case of fake documents and was made in 2010

  10. Mike in Nola says:

    Judging by what else is printed on the document itself, I have my doubts that he meant securities when he used the term “Stocks.”

    BTW, happened to flip on CNBC when changing channels and Larry was on with an octobox discussing an apparently recent article by Jeremy “stocks for the long run” Seigel. Appears he doesn’t like that people are ignoring him and buying bonds instead of stocks and is ranting about a bubble. I guess his subscribership is down and he is disappointed in not being able to ruin as many investors as he has in the past. Surprisingly, the consensus was that there isn’t a bubble.

  11. wally says:

    A fluctuation isn’t necessarily a ‘cycle’.

    Even a blind pig…

    The more things change…

    Hmmm, what else could I toss in here?

  12. dasht says:

    So, is it a photoshop fake? By “stock” does it mean actual physical goods? Possible answers:

    In 1897, “Stone, an Illustrated Magazine”, 25 years after the chart was originally published, reproduced the diagram and offered an explanation. See:

    “The diagram which we give above was published on a business card by George Tritch, in Denver, Col., in 1872. We reproduce it from the card, with the explanations given with it. The diagram is not altogether accurate; for example, the panic Tritch predicted for 1891 actually occurred in 1893; still, the year 1891 witnessed the beginnings of the depression and the shrinkage in values which culminated in the crisis of 1893. It will be noted that the diagram gives the year 1897 as the time when an upward movement is to begin, and when it will be wise to buy stocks and real estate. Here Tritch has predicted like an inspired prophet. Everything in the grain, stock, and real estate markets are booming skyward, while the gold discoveries in various quarters, the financial legislation in foreign countries, and the opening up of factories and mills throughout this country indicate that good times have come again, to stay, let us hope, many years beyond the period Tritch sets down for another relapse, viz., 1899-1904.”

  13. NormanB says:

    How about the 1,000′s of like predictions that were wrong. Its like if you get 128 people to flip coins to come up heads and finally, at the end, one person is left that has done it seven times in a row and you rejoice that you have found someone who knows how to flip heads. I’m sure there is a Latin phrase to describe this faulty thinking. So, thanks Barry, for nothing.

  14. wally says:

    It’s like: “I, James Randi, will die today”.

  15. Lord says:

    This is a variant of the Benner cycle which has a long history.

  16. Patrick Neid says:

    The shorter cycles are also pretty interesting. Sell in 2007 and major low in 2012.

  17. Patrick Neid says:

    Lord, thanks for the link….

  18. TakBak04 says:

    BR…this is kind of a weird thing…For some of us it makes no sense.


  19. cognos says:

    As the man said – “1999 was a good year to short stocks”.


  20. [...] cycle I mentioned yesterday (“Periods When to Make Money” (© 1883) was picked up by FT Alphaville, and caused some consternation in certain circles (where marinating [...]