Media Appearance: CNBC’s Fast Money (8/24/10)
>
Tonite I will be on Fast Money on CNBC at 5:30pm discussing the Housing market, as you may have noticed the past two days here, here and here lately.
The key housing takeaways:
• Housing over the past century managed to just outpace inflation by 1.1%;
• The bond bull market that starting in 1980 drove mortgage rates down from the peak by as much as two/thirds — as high as 15% down to ~5%.
• Post WWII growth of suburbs and the subsequent baby-boom demographic surge created a massive demand for Housing (unlikely to be repeated soon)
• Decreasing credit costs also drove Real Estate appreciation (1980-2005);
• Bull Markets end with blowoff tops, pulling forward a decade or more of future returns;
• Home prices remain 5-15% overvalued nationally; Resolved via a big drop tomorrow, or 7-15 year period of no appreciation (depending upon inflation and wage gains);
• Housing has problems with both too much supply and not enough demand. .
Should be fun!
>
Tweet
Facebook
Reddit
Digg this!
August 24th, 2010 at 5:11 pm
I’ll give you a star if you can get even 1/2 those sentences spoken during your appearance, and a GOLD star if you can expound upon even 1 of them for more than 30 seconds…
August 24th, 2010 at 6:53 pm
Does your “Housing over the past century managed to just outpace inflation by 1.1%” include the costs of regular upkeep and repairs?
August 24th, 2010 at 7:23 pm
Barry, please post a video of your appearance. Thanks.
August 24th, 2010 at 8:47 pm
I saw it…it was recap of your early morning post which must have impressed the “Talking Heads” on CNBC. Good to see you and btw…I’m a huge fan of Melissa…she is an Excellent Moderator. And, the mainreason I watch “Fast Money” (since I’m not a Trader) is because SHE “Moderates” the Panel.
I find her “fair and balanced.” (but, I also know…that she could “turn on a dime” if her job is challenged…down the road. But, for now…she keeps the “discussion” (HA!) on track and does an excellent job that would put most of the MSM Reporters to SHAME…
August 24th, 2010 at 8:56 pm
Correction…Melissa Lee could put most MSM “Panel Moderators” to shame for how she handles “Fast Money.” Melissa is not a “reporter”.. she is a “Moderator.”
August 24th, 2010 at 9:36 pm
Yeah, Barry, “call us when you get lower than 80% cash…” – ok, so it was a joke, but it shows EVERYTHING one needs to know about that show, and the CNBC as a whole. This is nothing but a stock promotion show. A televised “boiler room-light.” A Home Shopping Network for equities.
I’ve got nothing but genuine respect for you work, your research and your blog. And i think that I understand that the show is a neat platform to promote your main business, but still, every time you appear with the “fast monkey” crowd, a tiny bit of that respect disappears… At least this time they allowed you to complete several sentences before one of the “monkeys” screamed “BRIC!”, “Potash!”, “Rails!” or some other “hot theme” of the moment. I guess for a few minutes, while digesting your “80% in cash” statement, they lost ability to talk their book….
Sorry, but I think that as much as your blog and you commentary is useful for independent investors/traders, the “fast monkey” is the exact opposite….
August 24th, 2010 at 9:38 pm
Rosey says no double dip it’s only a depression!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38831550
August 24th, 2010 at 9:48 pm
You never mention the “Pride of Ownership?” It’s the American Dream! Ownership Society! What about Social Stability ….as well as the fact that its real? These things out weight all the blah blah in your post.
I say, it’s a great time to buy.
- Lawrence Yun
August 24th, 2010 at 9:58 pm
so buy away … while you are at it buy 2 or 3
the NAR folks always say its good to buy, its good to sell — just keep those commissions –er The American Dream transactions — flowin’
August 24th, 2010 at 10:07 pm
@b_thunder Says:
August 24th, 2010 at 9:36 pm
Yeah, Barry, “call us when you get lower than 80% cash…” – ok, so it was a joke, but it shows EVERYTHING one needs to know about that show, and the CNBC as a whole. This is nothing but a stock promotion show. A televised “boiler room-light.” A Home Shopping Network for equities.
I’ve got nothing but genuine respect for you work, your research and your blog. And i think that I understand that the show is a neat platform to promote your main business, but still, every time you appear with the “fast monkey” crowd, a tiny bit of that respect disappears… At least this time they allowed you to complete several sentences before one of the “monkeys” screamed “BRIC!”, “Potash!”, “Rails!” or some other “hot theme” of the moment. I guess for a few minutes, while digesting your “80% in cash” statement, they lost ability to talk their book….
——–
What you say about CNBC and their Crew is really what most savvy viewers would say….
But, I’ve found their “Fast Money” is the best thing they do on that crap channel. If you are not a trader you get some good sense of what the Trading Group finds interesting and worth looking at (look beyond them talking their trades) and so, in many ways it’s more valuable than “Cramer’s Shilling,” which follows that I rarely watch.
It’s the moderating of “Fast Money” that catches attention for this viewer.
One show out of all day with the drivel from CNBC….well given the state of deterioration in MSM in the US today…one looks for small things that have some bits of insight.
August 25th, 2010 at 10:33 am
BR – 80% cash. Assuming since you’re in the “bond bubble” camp you have no exposure to FI? Also, in your opinion is the market already pricing in a republican victory/gridlock or that could be the next potential catalyst for upside in Q4? Thx