Monday Reads
Some quick reads before I run out the door to find my way home — my damn railroad is on fire!
• In Striking Shift, Small Investors Flee Stock Market (NYT)
• Ex-Fed Governor Mishkin in ‘Pay for Say’ Controversy Over Icelandic Economy (Jesse’s Café Américain)
• The Atlanta Fed now has 3 blogs (FRB Atlanta)
• How Treasury Thinks (Interfluidity)
• Mish pisses all over Ken Fisher (Global Economic Analysis)
• The Annual Energy Review (AER) is the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s primary report of historical annual energy statistics (Annual Energy Review)
• Far from Ground Zero, other plans for mosques run into vehement opposition (WaPo)
• World helium reserves are running out, Nobel laureate claims (Telegraph)
• Palin Says Refudiate Appears in Fictionary (Borowitz Report)
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August 23rd, 2010 at 4:07 pm
looks like the wyly brothers are fixin for a fight:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/In-SEC-Fraud-Suit-Texas-nytimes-495995367.html
August 23rd, 2010 at 4:45 pm
Small investors flee the stock market, real estate investing is dead and treasury rates are back to their recession lows, jeez you’d think we were back in recession or something maybe time to reopen the depression discussion
August 23rd, 2010 at 4:52 pm
That NYT article is a contrary indicator if ever I’ve seen one. If you look at their chart the damage was done last year, not this one.
I get the point, small investors are scared, disillusioned and now they’re piling into the bond market. Retail investors always get fleeced, why should now be any different?
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:09 pm
Euro’s Relief Is Seen Ending
As concerns over the euro-zone economy resurface, investors are wondering whether the euro’s recent strength was just a summer fling.
The euro has fallen against the dollar as focus move back to the negative effects of austerity steps on the economies of some euro-zone nations. Traders are looking to autumn, when the debt auction calendar usually heats up and when European parliaments will return to deal with the political realities of severe austerity budgets.
“Less positive feelings towards the euro” are surfacing, “with governments in southern Europe coming back from vacation and having to try to increase employment,” said Andrew Busch, global foreign-exchange strategist at BMO Capital Markets in Chicago.
The rising negative sentiment toward the common currency was made clear by data released Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. After six straight weeks of paring their antieuro bets, speculators increased their bets against the euro in the week ended Tuesday, according to a Scotia Capital analysis of the weekly Commitments of Traders report issued by the CFTC.
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:10 pm
Good luck getting home. I’m in the same boat. Should be a fun and long commute.
~~~
BR: Wife was in the city having meeting friends — I thumbed a ride home with her. Took me an Hour door to door
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:13 pm
Best of Wimp.com.
When I first clicked on the site I thought, “Oh great! Bully central!” I gave it a chance though and this site actually has a good eye for videos. Pardon the length Barry. I wasn’t sure whether to go with one part or two
Bet you can’t keep your eye dry: Couple’s 27-year romance.
http://www.wimp.com/coupleromance/
Rocket carrying a 45 million dollar military satellite explodes during blast off.
http://www.wimp.com/rocketexplosion/
The mystery hexagon on Saturn.
http://www.wimp.com/mysteryhexagon/
Cats try to understand treadmill.
http://www.wimp.com/catstreadmill/
New Chinese Bus Concept: Cars can drive under the bus.
Engineering genius. They just regained a whole lane for most cities. If this is what China will be coming up with in the future, the future truly is bright
http://www.wimp.com/busconcept/
Waterproof gecko is unsinkable and can walk on water.
I don’t know how the poor sucker takes a shower though
http://www.wimp.com/waterproofgecko/
Do tigers like catnip?
http://www.wimp.com/tigerscatnip/
Ever seen a real kung fu workout routine?
OK, no wonder they can smack the stuffing out of us
http://www.wimp.com/workoutroutine/
Robbie Williams has the crowd take a flash picture.
I pity the poor acid heads that were in the crowd
http://www.wimp.com/flashpicture/
Spectacular photos of nature.
http://www.wimp.com/naturephotos/
This is what happens when you attempt to take video of police in Sweden.
http://www.wimp.com/swedenpolice/
Ever seen a dog say “Hello”?
http://www.wimp.com/doghello/
Ultimate frisbee catch.
http://www.wimp.com/frisbeecatch/
Things being destroyed very slowly.
This one is really neat
http://www.wimp.com/destroyedslowly/
Fun way to shop at Walmart.
http://www.wimp.com/shopwalmart/
Realistic 3D projection on a building.
http://www.wimp.com/realisticprojection/
A bullet through a glass.
Cool, very cool
http://www.wimp.com/bulletglass/
Mesmerizing bird flight fractals.
Alfred Hitchcock would be amazed
http://www.wimp.com/birdflight/
Best illusion ever?
http://www.wimp.com/bestillusion/
Super fast spray paint artist.
http://www.wimp.com/sprayartist/
Hold on, rewind that again: Kid walks through spinning hoop.
http://www.wimp.com/walkshoop/
What a year on Earth really looks like.
http://www.wimp.com/earthyear/
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:18 pm
Could be worse. At least your pants aren’t on fire.
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:20 pm
http://news.yahoo.com/video/kansascity-kmbc-18211647/student-built-car-could-get-400-mpg-21529375
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:24 pm
Tax Cheats as Sailboat Owners Become $13 Billion Italy Dragnet
Mario Calabrese fumes as he stands near his 10-meter (33 feet) sailboat docked at the Rome Harbor where, days earlier, 20 inspectors swept through the port searching for well-heeled tax cheats.
“People are pretty upset here,” said Calabrese, a 58- year-old builder. “I’m not so concerned, as my accounts are in order, but it’s wrong to target yacht owners. If I buy a boat, I help the workers who made it, and help keep the economy going.”
The raid was part of a summer crackdown at beaches, yacht clubs and discos from Venice to Sicily in a campaign to recoup 10 billion euros ($13 billion) in unpaid taxes this year. Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s government is hunting black economy revenue to tame its budget deficit and pare Europe’s biggest debt burden of 116 percent of gross domestic product.
Evasion is rampant in Italy, one of the world’s 15 richest nations based on per-capita GDP, where only 0.2 percent of taxpayers declare income of more than 200,000 euros a year. Berlusconi said earlier this year that about 22 percent of the economy is underground, and Italy misses out on 100 billion euros a year in unpaid levies.
The summer holidays, when consumption is conspicuous and business booms on Italy’s 8,000 kilometers (4,970 miles) of beaches, are an ideal hunting season for tax inspectors to target marinas, restaurants and resorts.
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:26 pm
You NYC commuters had better wake up and smell the coffee.
Fuggedaboudit so far as getting home tonight, and perhaps tomorrow night as well. When a transportation channel that handles as many people as does the LIRR goes down, the ripples spread far and are long-lasting.
Maybe things will be back to normal by this time tomorrow, if you are lucky.
Find a decent hotel (if possible, at this late point in time) and settle back to read about the blackout in 1965. And be thankful that you have A/C and power to run your laptops.
http://blackout.gmu.edu/archive/a_1965.html
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:29 pm
If retail investors are piling into bonds, it must mean interest rates are about to start rising.
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:29 pm
re: Mishkin pay-for-play …
Who knew that a Fed governor could be had for only 124 grand? I woulda thought they would cost at least as much as a senator … I guess that’s deflation at work — even the payola is shrinking in size …
D’ya think the Icelanders will issue an arrest warrant for him? Criminal banksters aren’t very popular just now over there, and foreign crooked banksters even less so …
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:40 pm
I am finding Mish increasingly annoying
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:46 pm
are corporate real?
http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/08/are-corporate-earnings-sustainable.html
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:47 pm
re: How Treasury Thinks
“They don’t have intelligence. They have what I call ‘thintelligence.” They see the immediate situation. They think narrowly and they call it ‘being focused.’ They don’t see the surround. They don’t see the consequences”
Jurassic Park — Michael Crichton (1990)
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:49 pm
is the stock market pricing in government austerity?
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/08/23/is-the-stock-market-pricing-in-u-s-fiscal-tightening/
August 23rd, 2010 at 6:01 pm
The FT this morning had an article similar to the one about Italy and boats. The Greek taxmen are comparing registries at marinas with tax returns. They say they’ve found a number claiming <40k euro incomes while owning million dollar boats.
August 23rd, 2010 at 6:03 pm
Ah, yes, Fred Mishkin. Haven’t heard anything about him since he slunk back to Columbia after only two years. Another inspired Bush appointee.
August 23rd, 2010 at 6:04 pm
Hugh Hendry had an entertaining video about empty Chinese towers some months back.
China is going to have a world class blowout!
(Bloomberh) At least half of the apartments in Shanghai and Beijing are empty, the China Daily reported today, citing an online investigation by volunteers conducted in 100 Chinese cities.
About 51 percent of Shanghai apartments, 66 percent of Beijing flats and more than 70 percent of units in Hainan are vacant, according to the survey, based on counting the number of apartments observed to have no lights on at night. It was conducted on more than 1,000 real-estate projects and was organized by news website Sina.com., according to the report.
August 23rd, 2010 at 6:06 pm
I have another theory about the flight to bonds:
Many retial investors, like myself, know very little about investing or managing a well balanced portfolio. But the markets, and the degree to which they have been taken advantage of over the last decade by high-fee retirement plans and high-commissioned financial advisors, has provoked them to take matters into their own hands.
Put plainly: They’re sick of putting their hard earned money in the hands of people and “plans” that seek to earn more money on the invested capital than they do.
I speak from personal experience. I sacked my euphemistically-called financial advisor, withdrew from my employer’s retirement plan, and now invest and manage both myself. While I’m up about 20% since mid-April, I realize that significant portions of my accounts could be lost with a single miscalculated step. But I don’t consider other people managing my money a realistic option anymore. I’d rather go broke under my own sail than be bilked out of my money by people and institutions that only seeks to take advantage of hard working, honest people like myself.
I rarely hold securities over night.
I never hold securities over the weekend.
And I read everything I can get my hands on related to the markets.
I don’t happen to be invested in any bonds at the moment, but I have done relatively well betting against the market over the last four months. And I’ve loved every minute of it.
August 23rd, 2010 at 6:15 pm
“World helium reserves are running out”
a.k.a: Peak squeaky talkin’
Very interesting info on helium (from Wikipedia):
The abundances of the noble gases in the universe decrease as their atomic numbers increase. Helium is the most common element in the universe after hydrogen, with a mass fraction of about 24%. Most of the helium in the universe was formed during Big Bang nucleosynthesis, but the amount of helium is steadily increasing due to the fusion of hydrogen in stellar nucleosynthesis.[46][47] Abundances on Earth follow different trends; for example, helium is only the third most abundant noble gas in the atmosphere. The reason is that there is no primordial helium in the atmosphere; due to the small mass of the atom, helium cannot be retained by the Earth’s gravitational field.[48] Helium on Earth comes from the alpha decay of heavy elements such as uranium and thorium found in the Earth’s crust, and tends to accumulate in natural gas deposits.
August 23rd, 2010 at 6:55 pm
How the Common Man Sees It:
Rocket carrying a 45 million dollar military satellite explodes during blast off:
Awesome!
August 23rd, 2010 at 7:09 pm
Bocon,
After 9/11 I’d put my 401K balance in cash over the weekends, I figured those were 2 days when nothing good could happen. Vanguard eventually made those types of transfers difficult/impossible in my plan but I had moved to all cash by then, I missed the last 1400 points upside but thats OK!
I regret not paying closer attention to BR and missing the big rebound the past 18 mos or whatever, it looks like a replay of 1930 to me. I think BB and Turbo Tim have run out of tricks to convince us everything is safe! Time to duck & cover again
August 23rd, 2010 at 9:34 pm
How the Common Man Sees It Says:
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:13 pm
Best of Wimp.com.
———
Fascinating and Very Cool! Thanks for that link…..
August 23rd, 2010 at 10:10 pm
A big fish kill at the mouth of a waterway from NOLA to the Gulf.
http://www.wwltv.com/news/Thousands-of-dead-fish-found-at-MRGO-101330129.html
They don’t know if it’s the oil yet. There have been some in the past from oxygen-depleted zones called “dead zones” which have in the past been attributed to runoff of fertilizer. There have been concerns that the microbes feeding on the oil could cause something similar.
August 23rd, 2010 at 10:10 pm
BR — train problems — It could be worse
Chinese Drivers Sit It Out in 9-Day Traffic Jam
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38818720/
August 23rd, 2010 at 10:26 pm
bocon007 : you are going about it the right way.
There are very few “experts” who have real knowledge of what they are talking about. Watching BR the past few years has persuaded me he is one.
Many of the others are simply salesmen trying to skim a commission. Many others have just learned some things by rote with no deep understanding of the markets. They talk confidently enough that people believe them.
I don’t know that you have to go as far as not holding anything overnight of over the weekend. It may make you more subject to the daily manipulations when the CPU’s decide to put the markets up or down. But at least you make sure you preserve your capital, which is the most important thing over the last couple of years. I found the short term game to be too inconsistent.
Remember that that a similar philosophy applies in many other field, e.g. medicine and car mechanics. Not that you would do your own surgery or car repairs, but the best way to protect yourself is to understand what they want to do to see if it makes sense. Many fine doctors and mechanics, but some that don’t just got pushed through school because they got in and didn’t screw up too badly. Always good to be skeptical and learn about it yourself.
August 24th, 2010 at 12:58 am
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/decoding-wall-streets-hidden-messages-2010-08-24
The Dow Vinci Code knows
What’s Wall Street smoking?
Code: One reason Wall Street may have all the rhyme and reason of an extended jam by the Grateful Dead: pot smoking. A study of drug tests on Wall Street released last week found that cocaine is out, pot smoking is in. Cocaine showed up on just 7% of tests at Wall Street firms, down from 16% a couple of years ago, but marijuana showed up in 80%, up from 64%, according to Sterling Infosystems Inc. Read WSJ blog post on drug study.
August 24th, 2010 at 11:02 am
An Excellent Read!
——
The Economics of US Military Interventions: Part Two – Effectiveness
Morss Global Finance
Introduction
This is the second in a two-part series on the economics of US military interventions. The first part provided cost and fatality numbers of past and current wars. This one focuses on the most recent interventions – Afghanistan and Iraq. It asks if these wars have contributed to achieving America’s global strategy objectives.
For this article, I have again asked Jerry Silverman to help me address these issues. Jerry has worked overseas for most of his career and has written extensively on foreign policy issues. He wrote on the Afghanistan situation in a “National Interest” piece.
The following assessments of Afghanistan and Iraq each have two parts: motivation for intervention and what is happening now. The article ends with a broader discussion of what should be done moving forward.
http://www.morssglobalfinance.com/the-economics-of-us-military-interventions-part-two-%E2%80%93-effectiveness/
August 24th, 2010 at 1:02 pm
GOP pays bloggers…
http://dailycaller.com/2010/08/23/true-stories-of-bloggers-who-secretly-feed-on-partisan-cash/
I wonder how much those unsigned, unattributed, large-colored-font email writers make.
I wonder why the GOP feels it needs to pay bloggers if their message is so clean, concise and good for the people who want good governance.
I wonder if any GOP suckers… er… a… thoughtful blog consumers will get this story.
August 24th, 2010 at 3:04 pm
Ritholtz, took you for a Upper Westside Type.