Ireland gets to live for another 245 days

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By Peter Boockvar - August 26th, 2010, 8:09AM

Ireland sold 3 month and 245 day paper at yields well below that of two weeks ago and at bid to covers that were very strong (10.1 for the 245 day issue). In light of the concerns that flared up a few weeks ago on the rising cost of the Irish bank bailout, its comforting to see strong demand but the maturities are very short term and thus the auctions aren’t the best measure of sentiment towards Ireland’s finances. 5 yr CDS is narrower by 8 bps but to a still elevated 316 bps and Irish stocks are up by almost 1%. Highlighting the economic growth differences in Europe, certainly as expressed by the credit markets, German consumer confidence rose to the highest since Oct ’09 while Italian consumer confidence fell to the lowest since Mar ’09. A UK retail sales index was much better than expected and rose to the highest since Apr ’07. A day before Bernanke speaks, gold is just $20 from an all time record high.

Linguistical Differences Amongst Market Theorists: Efficient Market Practitioners vs Behavioral Economists*

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By Barry Ritholtz - August 26th, 2010, 8:00AM

Ever listen to how people speak?

I don’t mean their verbal tics or habits (“um”), I refer specifically to the words and phrases they choose to use. The way they deploy language can be quite revealing about their beliefs, training, and thought process.

Consider, as an example, the bond market. The discussion of late have been about whether or not its a bubble. This has come up quite a bit in conversation lately (see this and this), and have been fascinated by the different ways people have described the situation.

Consider the following overheard phrases, each of which come from traders, fund managers, and strategists:

The first two reflects a certain belief in the rationality of markets: “Bonds are pricing in a deflationary outcome” is how one strategist described it. Another (quoted in MSM) said that “the fixed income market is discounting a double dip.”

But a fund manager described it quite differently, relying on language of sentiment: “Traders fear an economic slowdown.

The actual language used suggest a clear theoretical underpinnings:  The first two speakers are likely adherents of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). They consider market action to reflect the collective knowledge of all participants. Hence, the interest rate action is only the collective wisdom of the crowd, as more economic information works its way into bond prices. The crowd (of course!), will be more right versus than any single individual.

Truth be told, crowds have not appeared particularly full of wisdom over the past few years. They seem to act like lemmings, engaging in group think. If the EMH proponents are honest, they will admit this theory has flaws.

The second is a behavioral economics approach: It considers the irrational and emotional processes of the human participants in the markets. But traders who adhere to this philosophy will have to admit that the majority of the time, trader emotions remain in mostly in check. Behavioralism only seems to create actionable insights at market extremes.

I find its helpful to deploy both theories. During the meat of any market move — call it the middle 60-80% — the crowd is the trend. That is when deferring to not the crowd’s wisdom, but their collective muscle, is the most lucrative.

When the crowd morphs from a peaceful assembly to a mindless mob, that is when the behavioral aspects kick in. The contrary bet can be placed once extremes in emotions are visible in market and sentiment data.

What does your language say about the way you think . . .  ?

________________

* Isn’t that a great headline? I made it up, but it sounds like it should be an academic research paper from HBS or one of the Fed Research departments . . .

Kotlikoff: U.S. Financial System Fundamentally Corrupt

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By Barry Ritholtz - August 26th, 2010, 7:00AM

~~~
Kotlikoff.net
http://www.kotlikoff.net/-laurence-j-kotlikoff

Source:
U.S. Financial System Still “Fundamentally Corrupt,” Kotlikoff Says: Here’s How to Fix It
Aaron Task
Yahoo Tech TIcker, Aug 24, 2010 10:37am EDT
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/u.s.-financial-system-still-”fundamentally-corrupt”-kotlikoff-says-here’s-how-to-fix-it-535361.html

Major Money Managers Representing Retail Investors Speaking Out Against HFT

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By Guest Author - August 26th, 2010, 6:00AM

Joseph Saluzzi (jsaluzzi@ThemisTrading.com) and Sal L. Arnuk (sarnuk@ThemisTrading.com) are co-heads of the equity trading desk at Themis Trading LLC (www.themistrading.com), an independent, no conflict agency brokerage firm specializing in trading listed and OTC equities for institutions. Prior to founding Themis, Sal and Joe worked for more than 10 years at Instinet Corporation, pioneers in the field of electronic trading, and at Morgan Stanley.

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As we had anticipated, leading institutional investors of primarily retail money are beginning to speak out against the market structure that has helped foster HFT. Here are three major examples:

Kevin Cronin, Director of Global Equity Trading at Invesco

Invesco (NYSE: IVZ) is a leading independent global investment manager, providing a wide range of investment strategies and vehicles to retail, institutional and high net worth clients around the world. According to an August 10, 2010 news release, Atlanta-based Invesco (www.invesco.com) reported preliminary month-end assets under management of $580.3 billion.

The following are comments Mr. Cronin made in public testimony before the SEC’s June 2nd and the CFTC’s August 11th roundtables on market structure:

· “The large and sudden price dislocations on May 6 were, in large measure, the result of flaws and inefficiencies in the current U.S. market structure.”

· “In its examination of the market events on May 6, the Advisory Committee should not lose sight of the broader market structure issues raised by the SEC’s concept release examining the structure of U.S. equity markets, including the adequacy of information provided to investors about their orders, the impact of high frequency trading, and undisplayed liquidity.”

· “While INVESCO believes there are many beneficial high frequency trading strategies and participants which provide valuable liquidity and efficiencies to the markets, we also believe there are some strategies that could be considered as improper or manipulative activity.”

· “There is an immediate need for more information about high frequency traders and the practices of high frequency trading firms. Additionally, regulators should act to address the increasing number of order cancellations in the securities markets. It has been theorized that as many as 95% of all orders entered by high frequency traders are subsequently cancelled. Incentives that currently exist for market participants to route orders to particular venues, such as liquidity rebates, and any related conflicts of interest that may arise due to these incentives also need to be examined.”

· “Fragmented trading markets and the differing rules and practices governing those markets were a significant factor in the price declines experienced on May 6. Specifically, there is a need for an examination of the use by exchanges of mechanisms to pause trading in a security and the impact such action may have on other exchanges which may not have similar mechanisms in place.”

· “New challenges also have been created by recent market structure developments, for example there is still virtually no incentive for institutions to publically post limit orders. This point was clearly on display on May 6.”

· “We also question whether high-frequency traders should be anointed yet as the modern-day market makers, given that it is unclear whether they are truly providing liquidity to the great majority of stocks in the markets.”

James P. McCaughan, President – Global Asset Management, and CEO, Principal Global Investors

Mr. McCaughan oversees all global asset management activities, including developing global strategies and identifying and analyzing market opportunities. The Principal Financial Group (NYSE: PFG) is a leading global financial company offering businesses, individuals and institutional clients a wide range of financial products and services. According to an August 19, 2010 news release, Des Moines-based Principal (http://www.principal.com) has $284.7 billion in assets under management and serves some 18.9 million customers worldwide.

The following are comments McCaughan made in a July 9, 2010 interview with the FT and an August 23, 2010 interview with CNBC.

· “Order to one trading venue get shared with others. The problem is there is very strong circumstantial evidence that it’s front run in many places. And that is why both the SEC and FINRA have been looking at who is doing the trading in order to get more forensic about trading patterns.”

· “I am talking when orders get pinged out to multiple trading venues, there is at least circumstantial evidence that there’s quite widespread use of that information to front-run trades…That’s fraud.”

· “There are traders who send out orders with no intention of filling them, simply to try and see what activity it provokes.”

· “It is getting to the point that the investors are put off by the volatility that these phenomena are causing, and that is actually quite dangerous. We want to be able to look our investors in the eye and tell them the market is fair, and unfortunately in the market it’s quite difficult to do that.”

· “The trigger of May 6th is not all that important; the key issue is the vulnerability of the market to a rapid move. The instability that led to the flash crash arises from a number of places. I think one source of instability is high frequency trading.”

· “Many of the HFT efforts amount to destructive front running schemes.”

· “Oh yes, I think the SEC was correct into moving towards uniform circuit breakers. But what the flash crash is a good example of, is the unfairness, and the inequity that is built in to the market by giving, in particular, high frequency traders access to information that other investors don’t have.”

Jeff Engelberg, Principal and Senior Trader at Southeastern Asset Management

According to Mr. Engelberg’s June 22, 2010 statement to SEC‐CFTC Panel Regarding the Events of May 6, 2010, Memphis-based Southeastern manages approximately $35 billion, serving investors via The Longleaf Partners Funds (www.longleafpartners.com) and through 210 separate accounts, most of which are non‐taxable pensions, endowments, and foundations.

The following are comments Mr. Engelberg made in his April 28th comment letter to the SEC, and public testimony before the SEC’s June 22nd and the CFTC’s August 11th roundtables on market structure.

· “Our psychology has fallen victim to a notion that, without qualification, technology and speed should be embraced. Contrary to the claim that speed reduces risk, the introduction of excessive speed and unrestrained technology destabilized the markets and made them wholly indecipherable on May 6. We ask the Committee to weigh the benefits of microsecond by microsecond access against the costs of market instability and loss of investor confidence and ask why humans with direct access to the markets need to be licensed but technology does not. There are few events in life requiring decision making which can be altered in less than the blink of an eye. We do not feel that securities trading falls into that category.”

· “Further, it strikes us as discontinuous that the markets sanction microsecond speed in calm waters but slow down in times of turbulence through circuit breakers and Liquidity Replenishment Points (LRPs). Why are remedial responses a preferred course over preventative actions? Has speed reached an inflection point and become a liability to the markets?”

· “Some participants have access to proprietary market data feeds while others do not. Short-term traders with premium data feeds receive an instantaneous view into the future, i.e., the order flows through the feeds. This is similar to a casino with odds favoring the house.”

· “This Committee and the regulatory community at large should not try and will never be able to buffer the markets from unexpected and challenging news. However, the mechanisms by which the market digests information, discovers price, and continues to function through any and all events should be of significant focus and concern. I believe May 6 should be seen as a symptom of underlying weaknesses in market structure, and our response should seek to correct the underlying structural problems in the market which are currently being exploited, and, in the case of May 6, most likely mishandled.”

· “The US equity markets are meant to facilitate investors’ allocation of capital to businesses, thus expanding production and improving the quality of life in America. The markets have strayed from this social purpose, and presently resemble casinos more than orderly markets. As a result, the economy is hindered, fewer jobs are created, and reasonable returns for true investors (not traders) are compromised.”

We applaud the leadership of these individuals, and the firms they represent. It is encouraging to see the “Owners of The Market” step forward and probe our current equity market structure. Not only is the tide turning against HFT, but clearly industry leaders are seriously concerned. We anticipate more institutional money managers speaking out, and welcome their voices in this long marathon of a debate.

In New York . . .

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By Barry Ritholtz - August 25th, 2010, 5:10PM

via Gaping Void

Wednesday Linkfest

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By Barry Ritholtz - August 25th, 2010, 4:46PM

Here is what I am reading today:

• Chris Whalen: The Federal Reserve Board and the Neverending Crisis (Networks Financial Institute)

• Worries About Tomorrow Hold BackEconomic Growth Today  (Kiplingers)

• Dick Fuld in exile (Fortune)

• How the Minerals Management Service’s “partnership” with industry led to failure (Washington Post)

• Homeowners, on average, overestimate the value of their properties by between 5 percent and 10 percent (Levy Institute)

• Commercial Property Owners Choose to Default (WSJ)

• Deep In Gulf Water, Bacteria Are Eating Spilled Oil (NPR)

• Graduate art: make an art of your investments (Telegraph)

• Greetings from Idiot America (Esquire)

• When you google, think Ben Gomes (Mercury News)

What are you reading ?

Fear in the Markets

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By Barry Ritholtz - August 25th, 2010, 4:25PM


James Montier on the Importance of Dividends

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By Barry Ritholtz - August 25th, 2010, 3:04PM

JM Man Different Time 8-23-10

50 Best Websites 2010: StockTwits

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By Barry Ritholtz - August 25th, 2010, 2:30PM

Congratulations to Howard Lindzon on StockTwits making Time magazine’s 50 Best Websites for 2010.

Here’s Time:

“StockTwits is a by-product of all that financial chatter on Twitter. Think of the website as a social ticker — instead of tracking stock movements, it tracks the ongoing discussion around each stock. Find someone whose advice you trust, add them to a watch list and get a real-time stream of investing insight. The unvarnished info can be a refreshing switch from all those makeup-encrusted anchors on financial-news shows.”

Congrats !

>

StockTwits can be found here: Stocktwits.com

NY Fed Report on Household Debt & Credit

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By Barry Ritholtz - August 25th, 2010, 12:45PM

I have been meaning to point to the NY Fed’s report on Household Debt.  It is laden with all manner of good stuff. I thought this paragraph was significant:

For the first time since early 2006, total household delinquency rates declined in 2010Q2. As of June 30, 11.4% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, compared to 11.9% on March 31, and 11.2% a year ago. Currently about $1.3 trillion of consumer debt is delinquent and $986 billion is seriously delinquent (at least 90 days late or “severely derogatory”). Delinquent balances are now down 2.9% from a year ago, but serious delinquencies are up 3.1%.

I of course was enamored of the chart porn:

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Total Debt Balance and its Composition

Total Balance by Delinquency Status

New Seriously Delinquent Balances by Loan Type

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This one is probably the most informative of all:

Percent of Mortgage Debt 90+ Days Late by State

All charts sourced FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel

>

Source:
QUARTERLY REPORT ON HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND CREDIT
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK
RESEARCH AND STATISTICS ● MICROECONOMIC AND REGIONAL STUDIES
August 2010
http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/national_economy/householdcredit/DistrictReport_Q22010.pdf

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