Succinct summation of week’s events

Positives

1)Initial Jobless Claims 17k less than expected at 473k and down from 504k last week
2)ABC confidence at 6 week high, UoM confidence slightly weaker than expected but up a touch from July
3)Q2 GDP better than feared but still weak
4)Bernanke elaborates, doesn’t lower ’11 GDP forecast and stops for now at QE1.5
5)Refi’s rise to most since May ’09
6)Ireland has good bill auctions, albeit very short term maturities
7)German IFO highest since June ’07, consumer confidence highest since Oct ’09
8)UK retail index strong
9)Housing stocks and INTC shrug off bad news and AAII has bulls at lowest since Mar ’09.

Negatives

1)CDS and yields in PIIGS moving higher again
2)Italian consumer confidence lowest since Mar ’09
3)Existing and New home sales awful
4)Durable Goods weak with non defense cap goods ex aircraft down 8%
5)PC sales slowing.

Category: Uncategorized

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

13 Responses to “Succinct summation of week’s events”

  1. call me ahab says:

    Bernanke elaborates, doesn’t lower ‘11 GDP forecast and stops for now at QE1.5

    how does the promise of lower rates that would be experienced by another round of Fed asset buying (BB at the ready) help anything? velocity anyone? BB keeps talking about the Fed’s tools forgetting to mention that he is the main tool-

    I guess BB thinks there is rate at which everyone will want to borrow-

    remember the old saying BR- “you can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink”

  2. bman says:

    Lets burn the banks, Once all that paper is gone we can sort though the trash thats left over.
    I have a feeling there won’t be much of value when all is said and done.

  3. JustinTheSkeptic says:

    I just went long big time. Now Ben you better not let me down! Start up the next cheerleading session…BR, you and Krudlow would look really good in pleaded skirts. (Of course my skepticism is a contrary indicator and this is 2002 all over again. Not!).

  4. rktbrkr says:

    BB says Fed will do “all it can” to ensure US recovery

    what he meant was the Fed will “continue TRYING all it can” to ensure US recovery, a lot fewer arrows left in his quiver

    this time they’re going it alone without the US stimuli packs for QE II after getting an incomplete in QE I

  5. CrispE says:

    BR:

    The gist of this week is that there are negatives and positives, but the damning evidence is the way the bonds acted today and yesterday.

    Yesterday, the bonds got bought because the unemployment stats are considered bogus (probably because it’s the government telling us something).

    Today, the FEAR of God was put into the bond holders because the idea that the FOMC will somehow do something in terms of the economy is a very real possibility and thus, a 4% selloff in what many think is a “sure thing.”

    If the FED, the Treasury or some government official now goes out Sunday or thereafter and says the following “we are considering….” look for a big rally soon thereafter. If not, look for a continuation of the fear and bond bubble game going on for the last month.

    All the rest of the news…..noise.

    Don’t expect rational responses from an irrational market.

  6. Winston Munn says:

    I can only summarize Friday’s market action: Hooray, the economy sucks! Hooray, the economy sucks! Hooray, the economy sucks!

  7. louis says:

    “vulnerable to unexpected developments”

    Not good.

  8. TakeMyTalents says:

    Sadly (or perhaps gladly) the markets wanderings between xx,xxx and xx,xxx during this summer (except LA were we received no summer but holding on to BRs words ‘weather is not climate’) were highly expected amongst the barrerati. No if the market went from xx,xxx to x,xxxx then we’d be discussing it from bleeker to Silverlake blvd. It didn’t, and now suummers over and one last weekend at aria with something resembling friends

  9. rktbrkr says:

    Throwing rocks…and the admin doesn’t even have any rocks to throw at this point!

    Alan S. Blinder, a former Fed vice chairman and a Princeton professor, noted that Mr. Bernanke focused his remarks on the costs as well as the benefits of additional action to help the economy.

    “The Fed has run out of the strong tools, and is turning to the weak ones,” Mr. Blinder said in an interview here. “When you’re fighting in a foxhole and you’ve used up the machine guns and hand grenades, then you pull out the swords and start throwing rocks.”

    Mr. Blinder said that the economy seemed “substantially worse” than it did three months ago — and that Mr. Bernanke had acknowledged the deterioration, cautiously.

  10. rktbrkr says:

    Not a single new home sale over 750K in the past 2 months, it seems impossible (from the Mish web site), I presume it’s limited to the big builders but I assume it includes land value too.

    Guess how many homes prices above $750k managed to sell in July. Answer — zero, nada, rien; and for the second month in a row. Only 1,000 units priced above 500,000 moved last month. That’s it! Over 80% of the homes that the builders managed to sell were priced for under $300,000.

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/08/burning-down-house-new-home-sales.html

  11. market_disciple says:

    Barry,

    So far you have been uncannily in tune with the market. Are you still maintaining your SPX 950 target, even after that rather respectable rally on Friday?

    My amateur Fibonacci-based technical analysis suggested SPX 1040, 1010, or 960 as possible good entry points for a long position on stocks. The lower the better obviously. Unfortunately I was caught off guard that the market would rebound immediately after Bernanke’s pledge.

    In a hindsight It looks like I have made a dire mistake thinking Jacksonhole was going to be a non-event. Now I am going back to the drawing board to re-adjust my game plan.

    Have a great weekend

  12. jswap says:

    “4)Bernanke elaborates, doesn’t lower ‘11 GDP forecast and stops for now at QE1.5″

    um, what part of this is a positive exactly, especially considering his (in)ability at forecasting.

  13. gohchoe says:

    Noticed that after Bernanke speech as he said that don’t know when to apply the QE program…market feel better and respond positively for risk appetite…