click for ginormous graphic

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Floyd Norris takes a closer look at the current post-recession recovery, compared to prior recoveries. The overall trend appears to be slower snapbacks (1990-91 and 2001), jobless recoveries (2001, 08-09).

The chart above shows the economic data where this recovery is typical and very atypical.

In some areas, the data is typical of 1990-91 and 2001 recessions, but worse than the 81-82 recovery: Service employment, Private sector hiring, hours worked. Manufacturing Jobs are better than 2001, and 1991, worse than ’82. Industrial production is better than 91/01, and almost as good as 82.

Where this recovery is much much worse than typical: Unemployment rates, Long Term unemployed, Construction employment, housing starts, financial service employment (duh), state and local government hiring.

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Source:
Recessions and Recoveries Are Not All the Same
FLOYD NORRIS
NYT, September 24, 2010
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/25/business/economy/25charts.html

Category: Data Analysis, Economy

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

11 Responses to “4 Recessions (and Recoveries)”

  1. Petey Wheatstraw says:

    “In some areas, the data is typical of 1990-91 and 2001 recessions, but worse than the 81-82 recovery: Service employment, Private sector hiring, hours worked. Manufacturing Jobs are better than 2001, and 1991, worse than ’82. Industrial production is better than 91/01, and almost as good as 82.

    Where this recovery is much much worse than typical: Unemployment rates, Long Term unemployed, Construction employment, housing starts, financial service employment (duh), state and local government hiring.”
    __________________

    So, the corporatist side of the equation is relatively unscathed, while the individual/governmental components take a kick in the head. I wonder why that is?

  2. Mike in Nola says:

    I will throw out the usual caveat that stats over a brief time period can be worthless, or even deceiving, e.g. the claim that stocks return 8-10%/year is due in large part to the Greenspan bubbles of the past 30 years.

  3. radioman says:

    With state and local governments lagging, I wonder what the numbers are for the federal government and I wonder how much of the private sector employment is actually on government contracts…

  4. Chief Tomahawk says:

    But near-record earnings due to corporate refi of debt at lower rates. How long can that juice things & how did cheap debt work out for Main St.?

  5. franklin411 says:

    I don’t know anyone–left or right (if you think there’s such a thing as a “center…”)–who disagrees that there is a single fundamental problem with the American economy. Simply put, we import everything and export nothing. This has been going on since Reaganomics began gutting our industrial core, our infrastructure, and our educational system.

    So given that this is a 30+ year trend, why would anyone expect anything *but* slow, jobless recoveries? Yes, a little nip and tuck here and there can spur growth slightly and improve the situation, but unless America becomes a manufacturing nation once again, there is no hope for a real recovery.

    Obama’s economic plan is a 30 year vision of restoring the United States to its former glory as the industrial leader of the world, through the use of long term investments in education, infrastructure, science, and green energy. Then, and only then, can there be a real recovery.

    Anyone who pretends that all America needs to do to create prosperity is to pass another $5 trillion tax cut on the rich is an idiot or working for our Chinese enemies.

  6. ray l love says:

    I live near Killeen/Ft. Hood in Central Texas. This area has no shortage of jobs. The classifieds throughout central Texas list a long and varied assortment of low-paying jobs.

    However, by example, I know journeyman carpenters who are unable to find jobs at half of their previous wages in capacities ranging from janitorial to maintenance etc. What little work that is available to construction workers in this area is mostly being done by Hispanic crews, mostly by contract. These crews do not consist of undocumented workers exclusively, but fluent Spanish is a must and racially mixed crews are rare.

    I live in a rural area where it is made obvious that the competition with undocumented workers intensifies as the distance increases outwardly from metropolitan areas. The diversity regarding job types also expands into occupations that are essentially the entire spectrum of jobs that do not require some form of documentation. For instance, undocumented entrepreneurs have small businesses doing auto/tractor repair, welding, fence building, lawn and pool services, small scale food production and vending, etc. Put simply, undocumented workers are not just workers, they have a wide range of skills and they offer those skills at price levels that are nearly impossible for citizens to compete with due to the significant differences in overhead costs. And they have become entrepreneurial in all of the ways open to bidding for work, by commission etc., but mostly as subcontractors in competition with each-other and with legal businesses.

    Essentially, citizens in the lower half of the workforce in this area who have lost their jobs are at least competing with undocumented ‘commerce’ indirectly. And, in many more cases than what are being mentioned in the MSM, this competition for livelihoods is direct and varied in its forms.

  7. dead hobo says:

    Are you sure those pictures really aren’t jazzed up pictures of old man eyebrows, highly magnified, color enhanced, and mislabeled just as a joke?

  8. willid3 says:

    wonder if we really ever recovered from the 2001 recession? after all, now we know that almost all of the economic activity was driven by easy credit, as opposed to real economic growth

  9. louis says:

    Put it in the basket Chief- “But near-record earnings due to corporate refi of debt at lower rates” Absolutely.

    This same thing need to be done on the homeower side and then you can get back to real recovery.

  10. nemo says:

    My god, look how all those numbers came roaring out of the box during the 24 months after the 1982-82 recession. No wonder Reagan was popular in 1984.

    (Not that he had much to do with either the recession or the recovery.)

  11. Long term says:

    jobs will not return until necessary deflation arrives. the US is fighting deflation as though it were some evil enemy when, at the current time, deflation is a natural market force trying to balance the US’s scorecard with china/india’s. by that, i mean unless prices (and salaries) come down in the US, the US will not be able to compete in the international labor market. if the US will stand some painful deflation now (while inflation happens in Asia) then the cost of US labor will shrink enough to repair many of the structural problems currently plaguing the economy.

    yes, i know deflation hurts. but not having jobs for the next 10 years hurts worse.