CRB raw industrials index breaks out to highest since May ’08
The FOMC meets Tuesday and the flat core CPI will be a focus as will the drop in inflation expectations one year out (notwithstanding the unch level 5 yrs out) in the UoM data. One thing they should but may not focus too much on are commodity prices. As of last night’s close, the CRB Raw Industrials sub index of 22 commodities that are “either raw materials or products close to the initial production stage” broke out to the highest level since May ’08 and at 517.3, is just 8.5 pts from a record high reached the same month. Included in the index are metals, textiles/fibers, livestock and products, fats/oils, foodstuffs and other raw industrials. A company’s costs are more than just commodities of course as labor is a majority of them but margin pressure can still occur if prices can’t be passed on. Thus, whether businesses feel the impact or consumers do, inflation pressures are clearly evident to those looking at market signals.
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September 17th, 2010 at 11:31 am
Great, deflating home prices and rents are obscuring an inflation problem.
September 17th, 2010 at 11:47 am
Higher Gold = Higher Commodity = Devalue the $ = In or De ?
September 17th, 2010 at 11:54 am
Can you believe that they are still trying to chase yield. Inflation, my ass!!!
September 17th, 2010 at 12:59 pm
When people weigh in on the inflation/deflation debate, they should really be specific about which indicators they are looking at.
It’s possible to have deflation by some measures, and inflation by others.
September 17th, 2010 at 1:22 pm
Based on economist-speak – actual increases in prices don’t matter. Only expectations of price increases matter. So if prices are going up – but everyone is worried about prices going down (deflation) – then there is no inflation. Get it?
September 17th, 2010 at 1:59 pm
THE TRUTH ABOUT INFLATION: I expected to get layed today, but instead I got delayed. So did I ever really get layed, or did I think I might get layed? There is your inflation/deflation debate in a nutshell – the press and the government want you to cum to the conclusion of inflation, where the reality is that your, (the one who really counts) sweety has delayed your wishes. Yes, things are that bad out there! STILL!
September 19th, 2010 at 9:12 am
For the next 13 to 14 trading days, a devolution of the CRB will occur. The author of the article ‘about the CRB break-out- ultimately works for institutions whose goal is to place as many speculators as possible on the wrong side of the bet.
A low for the CRB and equities in early October is not exceptional.
What is exceptional is the daily perfect fractal pattern. The pattern was delineated 5 year ago in the Main Page of the economic fractalist predicting the collapse. This quantum pattern represents the debt dependent Macroeconomy’s underlying order. The Wilshire’s 11 October 2007 high was predicted.
In spite of the US Central Bank’s creation of an additional 300 billion dollars for short term debt over the next 6-9 months – an amount dwarfing the total annual net entry of mutual fund’s cash reserves into the equity market – in spite of this ex nihilo money support for the debt market – a massive devolution in equities and the CRB will occur in January 2011 completing a 49/100 month fractal beginning in October 1998.
The bailing out of LTMC prior to October 1998 showed the easy path for electronic money manipulation. The financial industry is a cancer on America with exponential metastasis that is killing its host.
January-February 2011: Federal employee furloughs, city and county default on extravagant pension plans, default on municipal bonds by bankrupt local governments, further decreases in property values and diminishing state revenues as more leave their Wall Street produced overvalued homes, et. al. this will be the information that the author of this article will offer to explain the Macroeconomy natural regression to beyond the mean sans reference to Wall Street who will do immensely well during this nonlinear devaluations by taking the short and put position.
Its a bad and unconstitutional system; politicians of both parties are aligned to protect the Financial Industry.