Initial Jobless Claims were much better than expected at 451k vs the forecast of 470k and down from 478k last week (revised up by 6k). Labor Day weekend may have had an impact on the seasonal adjustment but we’ll have to see next week to what extent. Either way though, the market will take a downward move to the lowest since early July in light of the worrisome rise over the past month. Continuing Claims were above expectations but little changed with the prior week while Extended Benefits were up a net 30k. Also giving a boost to the futures was the less than expected July Trade Deficit of $42.8b vs the est of $47b which may lead to a boost to economists Q3 GDP estimate of as much as .4 of a % point as exports rose 1.8% while imports fell by 2.1%. In contrast, trade was a big drag on Q2 GDP.

Category: Uncategorized

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

10 Responses to “Economic data looks good”

  1. riffraff says:

    Holiday

    “For the latest reporting week, nine states didn’t file claims data to the Labor Department in Washington because of the federal holiday earlier this week, a Labor Department official told reporters. As a result, California and Virginia estimated their figures and the U.S. government estimated the other seven, the official said. ”

    http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aam4GVG_ZaU0&pos=1

  2. hillary1 says:

    whoopdeedo.

    STILL no net job creation. Oh and never mind that people don’t count as “unemployed” in the claims data if they either give up or exhaust their extended benefits, with the maximum roll-off coming sometime in the middle of 2011.

    Are you on the government payroll, or are you still hoping that your end-of-recession prediction you made last year is going to come true and hate that you are dead wrong.

    Maybe you should just work with CNBC and get it over with.

  3. ashpelham2 says:

    I don’t post very many links on here, but I’d like to get some opinions on the following article:

    http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2010/09/pay-cuts-kevin-hassett-american-enterprise-institute.html

    I personally think this guy is on to something. He’s not the smartest cookie in the jar, but it’s a pretty basic economic understanding. Do we want 10% unemployment for a longer period of time, thus dragging down overall growth, or do we all want a small cut in our pay, have millions of Americans go back to work, and increase our economic base, thus helping us all in the end?

  4. NoKidding says:

    “Either way though, the market will take a downward move to the lowest since early July in light of the worrisome rise over the past month.”

    Please elaborate.

  5. Niskyboy says:

    @ riffraff
    from zerohedge: “Official data is now made up on the fly. This US economic data reporting has just entered the twilight zone. Also, when the data is officially made up, it is not that difficult to get data that is “better than expected.”"

    @ashpelham2
    Here’s a different way to phrase your question: Do we want to build a new road using relatively few people and some very productive construction equipment like earthmovers and backhoes, or do we want to use no machinery at all and instead employ lots and lots of people who’ll do it with pickaxes and shovels? You make the call.

  6. JSchmid says:

    Berry,

    Did you see in the report that it is largely based on estimates since 9 states didn’t report data due to the holiday(including the biggest oneCA), and our government officials when estimating the numbers almost always estimated a beat.

    This makes this weeks numbers meaningless.

  7. realgm says:

    If all those senior executives take a paycut and pay back some of their bonus based on fraud and lies, it can pay many people to work at average salary.

    It’s just a dream and the fat cats always win.

  8. Bokolis says:

    I drive by the unemployment office every morning on the way to work. On Tuesday morning, I see these two birds chugging *bucks while on line. Presumably, they got off the line when the coffee ran out, contributing to the lower number.

    It reminded me that some people, moreso people under 30, are unemployable. It was no surprise that the line was filled with younger people and people who look like they could only get a job at the DMV.

    While it’s myopic and terrible that companies cut to the bone (as they did in 2002) in order to dress up the books/stock price, it does shake out all the weak hands and highlights- because, this time around, they are also trying to collar talent on the cheap- that there are not reasonably intelligent people to go around.

    More pie for the rest of us.

  9. changja says:

    @Bokolis

    That’s true to a degree, 100% of the US population is definitely not all hirable at good performance attributes. There are a significant % that will be relegated to base jobs no matter what.

    The question is what to do with them because many of those jobs are no longer available like some manufacturing jobs and a lot of menials jobs that have moved to hire more immigrants because they have better work ethic most of the time.

  10. philipat says:

    450K new jobless claims is good news? Back to DR thread!!