NFP Day: -54,000
We are looking forward to a possible cooling of Employment in August — slower economic growth, weaker auto sales, softer than hoped for back-to-school retail season. Consensus is for a private payroll gain of 40k, (July was +71k), with a slight uptick in the jobless rate (9.6%). More census workers were let go, which could skew the headline number to negative 125k.
Back in 15 to update this . . .
~~~
UPDATE: 8:39am:
Looks like a better than expected report:
Nonfarm payroll employment changed little (-54,000) in August, and the unemployment rate was about unchanged at 9.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Government employment fell, as 114,000 temporary workers hired for the decennial census completed their work. Private-sector payroll employment continued to trend up modestly (+67,000).
Let’s take a closer look at the data:
• Average hourly earnings increased by 6 cents (0.3%) to $22.66;• The average workweek for all employees was unchanged (34.2 hours).
• The number of unemployed persons (14.9 million) and the unemployment rate (9.6%) were little changed in August.
• Temporary Help workers increased by 16,800.
• U6 Underemployment increased from 16.5% to 16.7%;
• Long-term unemployment dropped: The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more fell to 42% from 44.9% — a decline of 323,000 to 6.2 million;
• Government employment fell by 121,000; 114,000 Census 2010 workers were dropped from federal government payrolls;
• Revisions were positive: June revised from -221,000 to -175,000; July was revised from -131,000 to -54,000.
One oddity worth noting: Construction employment was up (+19,000) — we can only assume that is a seasonal effect.
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September 3rd, 2010 at 8:20 am
Feels like the biggest setup ever.
Stuck listening to NPR in the carpool, they talked this thing down and down into the ground.
When the propaganda team talks gloom like that, Goldman comes out on the low end of projections, the anti business prez is scheduled to announce pro business policy, and its Friday going into a long weekend….
Wish I went hextuple-long S&P at the close yesterday.
September 3rd, 2010 at 8:40 am
Negative 54K, but Private added +67K
September 3rd, 2010 at 8:47 am
B/D factoring is back this month adding 115K, vs only 6K last month.
Also, I wonder where (and if) workers added for the clean-up of the BD disaster would be fitted into the report? Would they be counted as temps, or would they perhaps be the mysterious construction additions?
September 3rd, 2010 at 8:54 am
Typo correction:
…added for the clean-up of the BP disaster, of course, not BD.
September 3rd, 2010 at 8:56 am
ES over 1100. Another missed opportunity. Might not be too late…
“After a week focused largely on foreign affairs, President Obama pivots back to what he earlier this week called his “central responsibility as president”: the economy.
At 10 a.m. in the Rose Garden, he’ll make a statement about new monthly jobs numbers coming out this morning from the Labor Department. Meanwhile, his economic advisers are working on a new plan to boost the economy that could be released any day.”
To the moon.
September 3rd, 2010 at 8:59 am
NoKidding,
to your point..
Softer Than Expected Job Losses Prime Stocks For Early Jump – U.S. Commentary
5 minutes ago
(RTTNews) – Stock futures are pointing to a sharply higher open Friday morning, as August job losses came in far softer than forecast by economists. The major index futures are all firmly positive, with the Dow futures up by 116 points.
A short time ago, the Labor Department reported that non-farm payroll employment fell by 54,000 jobs in August, matching the revised decrease in jobs seen in July. Economists had expected employment to fall by about 120,000 jobs compared to the loss of 131,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.
While employment fell by less than expected, the unemployment rate still edged up to 9.6 percent in August from 9.5 percent in July. The modest increase came in line with economist estimates.
At 10:00 a.m. ET, the Institute for Supply Management will release the results of its service sector survey. Economists expect the non-manufacturing index to slip back to 53.0 in August from a reading of 54.3 in July…”
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=90320100382
also, know that there’s (more than) a Reason that NPR gets called out as “National Propaganda Radio”
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=National+Propaganda+Radio
September 3rd, 2010 at 9:18 am
This may or may not mean anything.
Starting a month ago – my wife who is a consultant in business for herself is now being contacted by the government regarding this type of employment information. My wife explained to the gov’t woman that she/her company will never add an employee/she will never fire herself.
The woman on the other end of the phone did not care – the government employee will now be calling every month.
September 3rd, 2010 at 9:20 am
Mark,
What kills me isn’t the obvious market fixing, and the sheer numbers of players who are in on it, but that it all goes on after hours.
I think I’ll fire up Excel today and calculate what percent of day-over-day gains and losses this year have occurred between 30 minute before previous close and current open.
My sense is the market is dominated by three segments.
1) Premarket data releases preceded by opposite-tilt news.
2) 10-11:30AM European disconnection.
3) End of day hockeysticks on low volume.
September 3rd, 2010 at 9:29 am
It’s before a holiday weekend. Everything this week can be discounted as an attempt to keep the sheeple happy prior to a holiday weekend. They do it all the time. They’ll revise it down next month.
September 3rd, 2010 at 9:30 am
We seem to be back to media massaged “better than expected” mode. Certainly nothing earthshaking in these numbers and what’s good about unemployment rate increasing?
September 3rd, 2010 at 9:36 am
Nope, the excess doom and gloom is NOT a buying opportunity, because (this time it’s different! Ha!) average Joes like me have lost faith in the market. We buy firearms and generators now.
Incidentaly, why does a revolver, a fully amortized technology that is no more complex than an office stapler, cost $500+ new?
September 3rd, 2010 at 9:36 am
I think the report is legit and the recent crazy low mortgage rates are giving the economy a boost. I work in real estate and we just hired for the first time in nearly four years. It’s just a dead cat bounce though. I bet things will settle down in a few months.
Stocks are gonna be stuck in neutral for a long time….
September 3rd, 2010 at 9:43 am
“…but that it all goes on after hours.”
NoKidding,
as we learned, as lads, “When the Cat is Away…”
also, one of the *Classics: http://thinkexist.com/quotation/competition_is_a_sin/212532.html
Seriously, why rig Markets, if not for Maximum Effect?
and, to your suppositions (1., 2., & 3.), if you can get better than ‘even-money’-odds, Bet it~!
September 3rd, 2010 at 9:48 am
mdanda,
to your Q:, start here..
http://www.allbusiness.com/legal/928945-1.html
“…CONCEPTUALLY WEAK TORT CASES
Tort actions against firearms manufacturers for non-defective products usually involve a few main elements: a manufacturer, an assailant, a victim, and sometimes a retailer. Plaintiffs’ attorneys assume that the manufacturers are negligent because they produced a non-defective product that caused harm. Plaintiffs’ attorneys also ignore an assailant’s responsibility and sue manufacturers, who are a much more remote cause to the final injury, in part because manufacturers have deeper pockets than assailants. Retailers are targeted on the argument that but for their negligence in the sale, the shooting not have occurred. These arguments have a conceptually weak basis in tort law.
A. Tort Theory and Cases
Tort suits against gun manufacturers for non-defective products entail the misuse of legal standards and erroneous assumptions. Because this article deals only with nondefective products, it will omit “non-defective” for the sake of in further discussion…”
September 3rd, 2010 at 9:52 am
FWIW – Anecdotal alert: A good buddy fo mine got laid of a couple of weeks ago (a CRAZY situation, which only further supports my point about the often randomness of company layoffs these days, but I digress), and already has two job offers in hand from other companies. Now we here in the TC have come back far better than other markets, so take it for what it’s worth. I was a bit surprised that he’s gotten offers so quickly though.
September 3rd, 2010 at 9:56 am
NoKidding:
What proof do you have that the President is anti-business? Besides Faux Business Channel talking points.
September 3rd, 2010 at 9:58 am
@Calvin: “Proof?!” “Proof??!” He don’t need no stinking proof. He just KNOWS that it’s so.
September 3rd, 2010 at 10:06 am
Calvin,
I think the biggest accomplishment the president would claim so far is the health care plan.
Do you call that pro business?
September 3rd, 2010 at 10:18 am
@NoKidding: Throwing a massive gift of untold billions at failing businesses isn’t somehow “pro-business”? What exactly would that be then?
September 3rd, 2010 at 10:20 am
Let me clarify – I’m definitely in the camp that believe that Obama and both parties couldn’t care less about small business, but both parties are most certainly pro BIG business (for obvious reasons). That much is clear for all to see.
September 3rd, 2010 at 10:26 am
I think the biggest accomplishment the president would claim so far is the health care plan.
Do you call that pro business?
Child labor laws aren’t pro-business either, should they be eliminated?
Offering health care like every other industrialized nation already does isn’t exactly a frontal assault on capitalism.
September 3rd, 2010 at 10:59 am
@ Calvin at 9:56 am
He’s probably being influenced by the Koch brothers’ funding of Tea Party groups and their vast media / political machine. I had never heard of these two until Jane Mayer’s piece in The New Yorker this month. The link to read it is below (for free, no reg req’d, and a must must must read).
Together these two are the third richest “person” in the United States after Gates and Buffett. Their Koch Industries corp is the second most profitable corp in the US (after Cargill). They make most of their $ in the oil and chem companies (they own 4,000 miles of oil pipelines in the US for instance).
Their father was one of the founders of the John Birch. The two brothers founded the Cato Institute as well as the Heritage Foundation. They work closely with Murdoch at Faux.
These guys basically were the genesis of the whole Tea Party movement and are, it appears, completely funding it. They target any Republican that doesn’t completely oppose Obama (and any vulnerable Democrat). They are extremely strongly political in their spending of $ and that goes towards extreme rightwing causes.
They have funded many groups who claim Obama is a “socialist,” so reading No Kidding’s nonsensical characterization of Pres Obama, I have to believe he’s a, what I’ll call victim, of this massive massive massive propaganda machine (almost impossible not to be influenced by it, especially with them working in coordination with Murdoch).
Anyway, read the New Yorker piece. It’s a must-must-must read to let you know a VERY BIG REASON why the Republicans will enjoy big successes in November. The power of these two and their eagerness to use it for crazy ends is scary and depressing.
Here’s the piece:
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/08/30/100830fa_fact_mayer
September 3rd, 2010 at 11:47 am
Mannwich,
I think the biggest accomplishment the president would claim so far is the health care plan.
Do you call that pro business?
September 3rd, 2010 at 12:17 pm
Is this:
“Long-term unemployment dropped: The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more fell to 42% from 44.9% — a decline of 323,000 to 6.2 million;”
The result of UI extensions being terminated?
September 3rd, 2010 at 12:21 pm
@NoKidding: Not really, but to say that the president is “anti-business” wouldn’t be telling the whole story. The health care plan is certainly “pro health INSURANCE business”. It’s Crony Capitalism. If you’re a business or industry that’s in the CLUB, the O man is VERY “pro business” in their eyes.
September 3rd, 2010 at 12:59 pm
NOISE.
September 3rd, 2010 at 1:39 pm
when you are bouncing around the bottom, everything looks up
watch out when a better than expected loss is interpreted as good news …
top line revenue has been contracting, business is out of cost reduction bullets to make the bottom line appear better. If the belief is a flat, sideways trading decade then the PE multiples on the S&P is still to rich.
looks like short covering into the long weekend and opportunistic buying, however once the party weekend is over the rest of Sept will likely fall back into the historically notorious bad month for equities.
September 3rd, 2010 at 4:23 pm
@NoKidding
RE: health care
yes we all have to get health insurance now (like any responsible citizen should have already), but I’m pretty sure we’re all getting tax credits to do so…yes business with 50+ employees must offer it to new hires, but again, i’m fairly certain they’re all getting the same tax credits too. thus the enormous cost of the bill.
so Obama has pushed through the largest tax cut in history ($300 billion in stimulus), attempted to solve the health care problem (with even more tax credits), and now wants to give small businesses 12 billion in tax cuts, and 30 billion in low interest loans. yet he’s the one inhibiting hiring. does not compute…
where are the oppressive tax hikes everyone is talking about? anything to the tune of 50% or more? i’m still looking…
September 3rd, 2010 at 10:59 pm
@ZedLock
And, can anyone explain why repealing the tax cut for those earning north of $250k is, as the Republicans maintain, a crushing blow directed by Obama toward small business? I worked for 30 years in small business lending and I doubt 1% of the small business owners were able to take $250k. Most are in the $40k – $75k range. Just ordinary middle class folks.
In my view this is just an attempt to wrap a larger agenda (taking care of the boys) in the warm and fuzzy appeal of protecting small business. Disgusting and disengenuous.
September 4th, 2010 at 4:26 am
I worked for 30 years in small business lending and I doubt 1% of the small business owners were able to take $250k. Most are in the $40k – $75k range. Just ordinary middle class folks.
As you should know, the government (via act of Congress for the Small Business Administration) defines a small business as any for profit organization with1 to up to 499 employees – some industries are permitted up to 750, 1000 or 1,500 employees. With sales up to $27.5 million. When you starting getting into the upper half of that range, it would be a very badly off operation that didn’t net a $1000 or more per employee to the owner(s).
I suspect when Republican politicians (and many Democrats), think of small business, they don’t think of the woman who owns a small hair salon with 5 employees, but rather the sub-contractor to Boeing with 300 workers and staff.
It should also be noted, that “large” small businesses are very influential in local politics – they generally are the “leaders” of the community, and therefore have the most clout. There is a romantic myth about small business, Mom & Pop sized ones, like family farms. They do exist, they matter, mostly culturally; but in the scheme of modern life, they really aren’t important to either political, or corporate decision makers.
September 4th, 2010 at 7:08 am
@SecondLook
You are correct about “small business” and SBA. However, when guys like Boehner say that the expiration of the tax cut will impact “small business”, the average person’s take away is that it hurts mom and pop – not the supplier to Boeing. He might as well say it harms pregnant women. Certainly there must be at least some pregnant women in the impacted group.
Then there is the questionable element of whether a tax increase on that owner of the company which supplies Boeing will have any impact on that owner’s willingness to grow their business and hire new employees. Perhaps it might induce the owner to push productivity harder. But ultimately, if there is added demand for their product they will hire.