The Sept NY mfr’g survey was 4.1, below expectations of 8.0, down from 7.1 in Aug and at the lowest since July ’09 when it was -.8. The components however were not as soft as the headline reading seems. New Orders rose to 4.3 from -2.7 and Backlogs were -6.0, up 4 pts from Aug. Also, the Employment component rose a touch to 14.9 from 14.3, the best since May. Inventories moderated a touch to 1.5 from 2.9 but Shipments, which follow orders, were -.3 from -11.5. Prices Paid rose 2.4 pts and Prices Received rose by 4.4 pts. The General Business Condition 6 month outlook did fall 4 pts to 31.3, the lowest since July ’09 and unfortunately reflects a complete lack of visibility with business trends. Bottom line, lackluster remains the adjective for describing our recovery and the inventory boost to mfr’g is key to watch if its petering out. Today is the 1st Sept industrial # out and we need to see more to reach any definitive conclusions.

Category: MacroNotes

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