“If the current betting trends are to be believed, it now seems certain that a recall is in the cards”
-Paddy Power, Irelands Biggest Bookmaker
July 14, 2010 press release
Speaking of dumb bets: Its time to revisit a recent prediction market “winner,” and review the strengths and weaknesses of these markets:
Recall this Bloomberg article:
Apple Inc. is increasingly likely to recall its iPhone 4 after complaints about poor reception and a critical review from Consumer Reports, according to a betting company that tracks odds for such events.
Paddy Power Plc, Ireland’s biggest bookmaker, said the chances that Apple will ultimately recall the phone have increased following what it described a “betting frenzy” after the Consumer Reports review. The consumer organization said on July 12 it wouldn’t recommend the phone because of its tendency to lose signal strength when held in a certain way.
Only, not so much.
We have a long history of criticizing so-called prediction markets. There is no “wisdom of the crowd” unless the prediction markets has a similar demographic profile to whatever group is being forecast (or polled). When their community of voters are similar to an electorate, they act as a deeper polling mechanism. When they try to forecast the decision making processes of dissimilar bodies — Juries, Boards of Directors, or in this instance, corporate management — they stink the joint up.
Apple IPhone 4 Recall Odds Increasing, Irish Bookmaker Says
Bloomberg, July 14 2010
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.