Individual investors are now officially giddy
Individual investors are now officially giddy for stocks. As measured by the AAII survey, individual investor bullishness rose to 51.2 from 49.6 last week, to the highest since May ’08 while Bears fell to 21.6 from 25.2, the lowest since Jan ’06. Luckily we have to wait less than a week now to see what’s been priced in and what hasn’t been. The 10 yr Irish bond yield has broken out to a new high in response to the story that a block of subordinated bondholders will vote against the Irish government’s plan to restructure it. The bonds are currently trading at .20 on the euro. The yield at 6.83% is well off its early morning high because there is speculation the ECB was in the market buying Irish debt. The cost of insuring Irish debt is higher by 22 bps to 466bps, just 24 bps from a fresh high. The Euro is higher notwithstanding after Euro Zone economic confidence rose to the best since Dec ’07.
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October 28th, 2010 at 10:47 am
Well, that’s a good sign not to go near stocks. The trap is open and waiting.
October 28th, 2010 at 11:28 am
Correlation does not equal Causation, yes?
and, it just happens to be ‘Election Season’, here, Stateside..
October 28th, 2010 at 4:44 pm
The VIX has already done its dead cat bounce. They will probably hold things up until the election is done with. Then they’ll use the oft quoted, “The ‘markets’ didn’t like the results of THAT election.”
So my best guess is to say prepare for some interesting action next week
October 29th, 2010 at 2:36 am
My thoughts exactly Benny. It also makes me think the banks are even in worse shape than we believe. Why? Because money is never something to be ‘giddy’ about.
October 29th, 2010 at 12:47 pm
Is this giddiness leading to big flows into stocks? That would seem to be the best measure.