Its Non Farm Payroll Day!
Good Friday morning.
The weekend is almost here, and none too soon. In about an hour, we will get the NFP data. In a nation with a labor pool of 143,000,000, this monthly data point attempts to ascertain, in near real time, what employment changes occurred over the prior month. It is subject to initial reporting errors, modeling flaws, and future revisions.
And yet, traders feel it moves markets, and they add or subtract risk accordingly.
The consensus is that private payrolls (excluding government) rose by 75,000. If the Labor Participation Rate increased — more people started looking for work — that might push the Unemployment rate higher. There is still some noise in the data from the end of the decennial census taking, as the rest of the census takers get their walking papers.
As always, we remind you that any single data point matters less than the overall trend, which has been anemic. Watch the three big leading components to the NFP: Hours worked, temp hires, and income.
~~~
You know the drill: BLS report release at 8:30am, comments to follow.
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October 8th, 2010 at 8:44 am
lost 95,000 overall
gov’t down 159
private up 64
October 8th, 2010 at 8:48 am
LIES….all LIES.
And this is the government that you trust??? Anyone read the gallup article yesterday predicting exactly this???
I am embarrassed and ashamed of my government (republicans and democrats included)
October 8th, 2010 at 8:49 am
Gov’t will be down more than currently anticipated going forward. The flight of police, fire, and teachers being “forced” to retire is underestimated. The resulting drag on GDP going forward will be more substantial than currently envisioned. These workeres have good credit and (used to) spend.
October 8th, 2010 at 8:51 am
Sorry for the off-topic, but I LOL’d the BMW banner ad this morning. “Even adrenaline can be financed”
We finance everything, including glandular secretions.
October 8th, 2010 at 8:53 am
Has anyone noticed that the 23 of 24 of the last jobs numbers have been revised up after they were announced. This sort of bad math is not a fluke. They are hiding how bad it is out here.
October 8th, 2010 at 8:57 am
BR:
First:
Well, once again the data on “wihholding” seems to have been worthless. It has yet to show correlation with anything. Interested in what you think is the reason for this. I’m sure the people who follow the data are well intentioned, but that it was “optomistic” sounds far fetched, even with coming revisions.
Second:
The States are just beginning to have their real troubles. Even before the recession started in late ‘o8 they were borrowing and spending, thus helping to create the severity of the situation we are now in. Now, the pain will be felt by all.
October 8th, 2010 at 8:58 am
Private sector increase in people tenders: health care;leisure & hospitality; and subs to replace the sick and those leisuring too much.
October 8th, 2010 at 9:03 am
What is interesting about this report is that the U-6 rate jumped from 16.7% to 17.1% as seen in this chart:
http://www.thumbcharts.com/1377/alternative-measures-of-unemployment
Also the median duration of unemployment remains extremely high from a historical standpoint (22.1 weeks) as seen here:
http://www.thumbcharts.com/1350/median-duration-of-unemployment-since-1948
October 8th, 2010 at 9:06 am
higher unemployment: what’s bad for america, good for wall street!
Wealth transfer from 90% to 0.01% perpetrated by Ben B. and FOMC crew
October 8th, 2010 at 9:36 am
Yeah, it’s a lot of off-book other things day too:
http://thinkprogress.org/2010/10/07/bahrain-chamber/
October 8th, 2010 at 10:07 am
thumbcharts:
Add to this mix the fact that wages have been declining in both real and nominal terms for the past 30 years, and that those who do reenter the workforce likely do so at a greatly reduced pay level (and, chances are, at a job outside their career field), and the relentless crushing of the middle class becomes apparent. My only questions are when we’ll see the backlash, and what form it will take. It’s also informative to keep unemployment in context, as it’s not all that threatens the stability of the relationship between the pseudo-government and the population.
In the minus column, we have:
- Toxicity in derivatives and securities
- Fraudulent, yet legitimized GAAPs
- Record deficits
- Record debt (governmental, corporate, and personal)
- Record trade imbalances
- Lack of and/or selective enforcement of laws and regulations
- Direct participation in the markets by government
- Direct participation in government by corporations (corporate lobbyists writing legislation/regulatory capture)
- Effective ZIRP/Undermining of the currency
- Titles defects affecting potentially millions of homes and other RE in legal limbo
- The Courts and the Congress trying to ram rod the citizenry by administrative case settlement (in favor of the banks) and middle of the night retroactive legislation passed by voice vote.
- Unemployment
- Undermining of the currency
- A record number of failed banks
- A stock market defying gravity (held aloft by the invisible hand of Fed OMOs?)
- Government has lied and propagandized to the population in order to support corporate interests (Obama admin. covering for BP, for example)
- We live in a surveillance state (the govt isn’t looking for terrorists, they’re watching us)
On the plus side:
I just saved a bundle on my car insurance.
October 8th, 2010 at 10:33 am
@curbyourrisk
You should be ashamed of the private sector that did this to you first. Then, in a distant 2nd place, the government that’s having a hard time coming to the rescue. For every Greenspan who made honest, if economically bad and intellectually inaccurate decisions there was some bankster who knew what the were doing was flat-out wrong (repo 105? subprime nonsense? etc.) Lets not forget who made the money.
In other news; FDIC got the go today to file 50+ lawsuits against bank execs; seeking 1 billion in penalties: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6g9Mv92t0pk&pos=4
October 8th, 2010 at 3:41 pm
The U.S. economy continues to recover from the worst recession in three generations. Despite the fact that GDP, consumer spending, business spending/investment and employment have all improved markedly during the past 18 months, most people still believe that things are getting worse. As I said to you last week, you can blame the media’s obsession with bad news for part of the lack of confidence. However, basic human psychology has also been to blame. If the average person were capable of recognizing trend changes before they become so obvious that they cannot be missed – the world would be populated with countless millionaires. However, it does not work that way. Figuring out the economy and the changing trends in the financial markets is difficult for people that went to school to learn about those subjects and even for people that have been involved on a daily basis in tracking and trading the stock, credit, currency and commodity markets. Many of those experienced and educated people often get it wrong. That is one of the reasons that I try rise up above the stampeding herds on Wall Street to get a look at what is ahead.
Most people are busy with their own lives – working, taking care of their family and paying the bills. What they know about the economy tends to come from headlines in the media. And of course, many people also tend to extrapolate for the nation what they are seeing in their own neighborhood or amongst their close circle of friends and family. If they know someone that is struggling financially, the tendency is to believe that the entire nation is in the same boat. Well, America is a large nation. With a population of more than 300 million, it is literally impossible to study one small part of the economy and then figure out where we are going as a nation. That is why we have weekly, monthly and quarterly economic data. The vast majority of data shows that the economy bottomed out in early to mid 2009 and that it has been recovering ever since. The bears and skeptics only like to talk about the data that backs up their gloomy view of the past, present and future. That’s too bad for them, because they are doing little more than chasing their own tail – even as the rest of the nation moves forward.